Opinion Poll by Gallup, 8–30 November 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.0% |
22.9–25.2% |
22.6–25.5% |
22.3–25.8% |
21.8–26.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.7% |
15.7–17.7% |
15.5–18.0% |
15.2–18.3% |
14.8–18.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
16.1% |
15.1–17.1% |
14.9–17.4% |
14.6–17.6% |
14.2–18.1% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.4% |
9.6–11.3% |
9.4–11.5% |
9.2–11.7% |
8.9–12.1% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.4% |
9.6–11.3% |
9.4–11.5% |
9.2–11.7% |
8.9–12.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
7.1% |
6.5–7.8% |
6.3–8.0% |
6.1–8.2% |
5.8–8.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.8% |
6.2–7.5% |
6.0–7.7% |
5.9–7.9% |
5.6–8.3% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.4% |
5.8–7.1% |
5.6–7.3% |
5.5–7.5% |
5.2–7.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
2% |
100% |
|
15 |
37% |
98% |
|
16 |
46% |
61% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
10% |
15% |
|
18 |
3% |
5% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
10 |
31% |
99.4% |
|
11 |
58% |
68% |
Median |
12 |
10% |
10% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
2% |
100% |
|
10 |
59% |
98% |
Median |
11 |
36% |
39% |
Last Result |
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
6 |
24% |
99.2% |
|
7 |
25% |
75% |
|
8 |
50% |
50% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
6 |
46% |
99.1% |
Last Result |
7 |
50% |
53% |
Median |
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
4 |
68% |
98.6% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
31% |
31% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
83% |
97% |
Median |
5 |
14% |
14% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
19% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
76% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
34 |
98.8% |
32–34 |
32–35 |
32–35 |
31–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
33 |
86% |
31–34 |
31–34 |
30–34 |
30–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
32 |
72% |
31–33 |
31–33 |
30–34 |
30–34 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
29 |
0% |
27–30 |
27–30 |
26–30 |
26–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
26–29 |
26–30 |
26–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–25 |
21–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
19–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
14% |
98.8% |
Majority |
33 |
33% |
84% |
|
34 |
42% |
51% |
Median |
35 |
8% |
9% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
30 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
11% |
97% |
|
32 |
31% |
86% |
Majority |
33 |
39% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
34 |
15% |
15% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
25% |
97% |
|
32 |
46% |
72% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
22% |
26% |
|
34 |
4% |
5% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
27 |
14% |
96% |
|
28 |
30% |
82% |
|
29 |
40% |
51% |
Median |
30 |
11% |
12% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
35% |
94% |
|
28 |
43% |
59% |
Median |
29 |
14% |
16% |
|
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
19% |
96% |
|
27 |
41% |
77% |
|
28 |
31% |
36% |
Median |
29 |
5% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
25 |
11% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
38% |
88% |
|
27 |
37% |
51% |
Median |
28 |
9% |
13% |
|
29 |
4% |
5% |
|
30 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
25 |
21% |
98.7% |
|
26 |
46% |
78% |
Median |
27 |
22% |
31% |
Last Result |
28 |
6% |
9% |
|
29 |
2% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
24 |
17% |
99.3% |
|
25 |
44% |
82% |
Last Result, Median |
26 |
33% |
39% |
|
27 |
6% |
6% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
22% |
95% |
|
23 |
42% |
74% |
|
24 |
29% |
32% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
11% |
98.8% |
|
21 |
24% |
88% |
|
22 |
42% |
64% |
Median |
23 |
20% |
22% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
20 |
19% |
99.5% |
|
21 |
48% |
80% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
32% |
|
23 |
4% |
5% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
25% |
98.7% |
|
20 |
47% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
19% |
26% |
|
22 |
5% |
7% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
3% |
100% |
|
19 |
33% |
97% |
|
20 |
44% |
65% |
Median |
21 |
15% |
20% |
|
22 |
4% |
6% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
16 |
13% |
99.1% |
|
17 |
24% |
86% |
|
18 |
44% |
61% |
Median |
19 |
17% |
17% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
16 |
27% |
99.1% |
|
17 |
51% |
72% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
20% |
21% |
|
19 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
4% |
100% |
|
14 |
49% |
96% |
Median |
15 |
41% |
47% |
|
16 |
5% |
6% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–30 November 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 2307
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.78%