Opinion Poll by Gallup, 8–30 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.0% 22.9–25.2% 22.6–25.5% 22.3–25.8% 21.8–26.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.7% 15.7–17.7% 15.5–18.0% 15.2–18.3% 14.8–18.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 16.1% 15.1–17.1% 14.9–17.4% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.4% 9.6–11.3% 9.4–11.5% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1%
Píratar 9.2% 10.4% 9.6–11.3% 9.4–11.5% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.1% 6.5–7.8% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.8% 6.2–7.5% 6.0–7.7% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.4% 5.8–7.1% 5.6–7.3% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–19
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–11 10–12 10–12 9–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 10–11 10–11 10–12 9–12
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
Píratar 6 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
Viðreisn 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 37% 98%  
16 46% 61% Last Result, Median
17 10% 15%  
18 3% 5%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.6% 100%  
10 31% 99.4%  
11 58% 68% Median
12 10% 10%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 59% 98% Median
11 36% 39% Last Result
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 24% 99.2%  
7 25% 75%  
8 50% 50% Last Result, Median
9 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 46% 99.1% Last Result
7 50% 53% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.4% 100%  
4 68% 98.6% Last Result, Median
5 31% 31%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 83% 97% Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 19% 99.9%  
4 76% 81% Last Result, Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 34 98.8% 32–34 32–35 32–35 31–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 33 86% 31–34 31–34 30–34 30–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 32 72% 31–33 31–33 30–34 30–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 29 0% 27–30 27–30 26–30 26–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 28 0% 27–29 26–29 26–30 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–28 26–29 25–29 25–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 25–28 25–28 25–29 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–27 25–28 25–29 24–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 25 0% 24–26 24–27 24–27 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–24 22–24 21–25 21–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–23 19–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–21 19–22 19–22 18–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 19–21 19–22 18–22 18–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 18 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 14–15 14–16 13–16 13–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 1.2% 100%  
32 14% 98.8% Majority
33 33% 84%  
34 42% 51% Median
35 8% 9% Last Result
36 0.7% 0.8%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 3% 99.8%  
31 11% 97%  
32 31% 86% Majority
33 39% 54% Last Result, Median
34 15% 15%  
35 0.6% 0.6%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 3% 99.9%  
31 25% 97%  
32 46% 72% Median, Majority
33 22% 26%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 4% 99.9% Last Result
27 14% 96%  
28 30% 82%  
29 40% 51% Median
30 11% 12%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.2% 100%  
26 6% 99.8%  
27 35% 94%  
28 43% 59% Median
29 14% 16%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 4% 99.8%  
26 19% 96%  
27 41% 77%  
28 31% 36% Median
29 5% 5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.3% 100%  
25 11% 99.7%  
26 38% 88%  
27 37% 51% Median
28 9% 13%  
29 4% 5%  
30 1.0% 1.0%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.3% 100%  
25 21% 98.7%  
26 46% 78% Median
27 22% 31% Last Result
28 6% 9%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.6% 100%  
24 17% 99.3%  
25 44% 82% Last Result, Median
26 33% 39%  
27 6% 6%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 4% 99.8%  
22 22% 95%  
23 42% 74%  
24 29% 32% Last Result, Median
25 3% 3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.2% 100%  
20 11% 98.8%  
21 24% 88%  
22 42% 64% Median
23 20% 22%  
24 1.4% 1.4%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.5% 100%  
20 19% 99.5%  
21 48% 80% Median
22 28% 32%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.3% 100%  
19 25% 98.7%  
20 47% 74% Last Result, Median
21 19% 26%  
22 5% 7%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 3% 100%  
19 33% 97%  
20 44% 65% Median
21 15% 20%  
22 4% 6%  
23 2% 2% Last Result
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.9% 100%  
16 13% 99.1%  
17 24% 86%  
18 44% 61% Median
19 17% 17% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.9% 100%  
16 27% 99.1%  
17 51% 72% Last Result, Median
18 20% 21%  
19 1.4% 1.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 4% 100%  
14 49% 96% Median
15 41% 47%  
16 5% 6%  
17 0.5% 0.5%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations