Opinion Poll by Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 4 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 26.4% 24.4–28.4% 23.9–29.0% 23.4–29.5% 22.5–30.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 23.5% 21.7–25.5% 21.2–26.1% 20.7–26.6% 19.8–27.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.4% 12.0–15.1% 11.6–15.6% 11.2–16.0% 10.6–16.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.3% 10.0–12.9% 9.6–13.3% 9.3–13.7% 8.7–14.5%
Píratar 9.2% 7.7% 6.6–9.1% 6.3–9.4% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.3% 6.3–8.7% 6.0–9.0% 5.7–9.4% 5.3–10.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 4.9% 4.0–6.0% 3.8–6.3% 3.6–6.6% 3.2–7.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 17 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–20
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–12
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Píratar 6 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–7
Viðreisn 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.8%  
16 6% 98% Last Result
17 18% 93%  
18 34% 74% Median
19 26% 40%  
20 11% 15%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 16% 96%  
16 27% 80%  
17 36% 53% Median
18 13% 17%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.8% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 4% 99.8% Last Result
8 24% 96%  
9 40% 72% Median
10 24% 32%  
11 7% 7%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 7% 99.5%  
7 35% 92%  
8 43% 58% Last Result, Median
9 13% 15%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 1.1% 99.9%  
4 23% 98.9%  
5 48% 76% Median
6 26% 28% Last Result
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 3% 99.8%  
4 33% 97%  
5 51% 64% Median
6 12% 13%  
7 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 2% 45%  
2 0% 43%  
3 29% 43%  
4 14% 15% Last Result
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 8% 9%  
4 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 42 100% 40–44 40–45 39–45 38–46
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 38 100% 36–40 35–40 35–41 34–42
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 35 98.7% 33–37 32–37 32–38 31–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 33 88% 31–35 31–36 30–36 29–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 32 64% 30–34 29–35 29–35 28–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 31 30% 29–33 28–33 28–34 27–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 31 30% 29–33 28–33 28–34 27–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 30 22% 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 29 3% 27–31 26–31 26–32 25–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0.3% 25–29 25–30 24–30 23–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 26 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 22 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 3% 99.4%  
40 10% 96%  
41 16% 86%  
42 22% 70%  
43 21% 49% Median
44 18% 28%  
45 7% 9%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
34 1.4% 99.7%  
35 4% 98%  
36 13% 94%  
37 20% 81%  
38 22% 61%  
39 21% 39% Median
40 13% 18%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.8% 0.9%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 6% 98.7% Majority
33 14% 93%  
34 25% 79%  
35 22% 55% Median
36 20% 32%  
37 10% 13%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100% Last Result
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.3%  
31 9% 96%  
32 19% 88% Majority
33 25% 68%  
34 23% 44% Median
35 14% 20%  
36 5% 6%  
37 1.1% 1.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
29 5% 98.9%  
30 11% 94%  
31 19% 83% Median
32 23% 64% Majority
33 22% 41%  
34 13% 19%  
35 5% 7%  
36 1.1% 1.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 7% 98%  
29 14% 91%  
30 23% 77%  
31 23% 54% Last Result, Median
32 18% 30% Majority
33 9% 13%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 7% 98%  
29 16% 91%  
30 23% 75%  
31 22% 52% Median
32 17% 30% Majority
33 11% 13%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100% Last Result
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.3%  
28 8% 96%  
29 18% 88%  
30 25% 70%  
31 23% 45% Median
32 14% 22% Majority
33 7% 8%  
34 1.1% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.0% Last Result
27 13% 95%  
28 22% 82%  
29 24% 60%  
30 22% 36% Median
31 11% 14%  
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.4% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
24 3% 99.3%  
25 8% 97%  
26 18% 89%  
27 25% 70% Median
28 24% 45%  
29 13% 21%  
30 7% 9%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.9%  
23 4% 98.8%  
24 11% 95% Last Result
25 24% 84%  
26 26% 60% Median
27 20% 34%  
28 11% 14%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.8%  
23 5% 98.6%  
24 15% 94%  
25 26% 78%  
26 28% 52% Median
27 15% 24%  
28 7% 9%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 9% 98%  
23 21% 89%  
24 23% 67%  
25 29% 44% Median
26 12% 15%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.3%  
21 10% 96%  
22 21% 86%  
23 31% 65% Last Result, Median
24 20% 34%  
25 10% 14%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.7% Last Result
19 7% 98%  
20 21% 91%  
21 26% 70%  
22 28% 44% Median
23 13% 16%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100% Last Result
18 1.0% 99.8%  
19 6% 98.8%  
20 16% 93%  
21 28% 78%  
22 23% 50% Median
23 20% 27%  
24 6% 7%  
25 1.2% 1.5%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.8%  
17 7% 98.5%  
18 16% 91% Median
19 22% 75%  
20 18% 53% Last Result
21 20% 34%  
22 11% 14%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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