Opinion Poll by Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 4 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
26.4% |
24.4–28.4% |
23.9–29.0% |
23.4–29.5% |
22.5–30.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
23.5% |
21.7–25.5% |
21.2–26.1% |
20.7–26.6% |
19.8–27.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.4% |
12.0–15.1% |
11.6–15.6% |
11.2–16.0% |
10.6–16.8% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.3% |
10.0–12.9% |
9.6–13.3% |
9.3–13.7% |
8.7–14.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
7.7% |
6.6–9.1% |
6.3–9.4% |
6.1–9.8% |
5.6–10.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
7.3% |
6.3–8.7% |
6.0–9.0% |
5.7–9.4% |
5.3–10.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
4.9% |
4.0–6.0% |
3.8–6.3% |
3.6–6.6% |
3.2–7.1% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.0% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.8–5.6% |
2.5–6.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
6% |
98% |
Last Result |
17 |
18% |
93% |
|
18 |
34% |
74% |
Median |
19 |
26% |
40% |
|
20 |
11% |
15% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
15 |
16% |
96% |
|
16 |
27% |
80% |
|
17 |
36% |
53% |
Median |
18 |
13% |
17% |
|
19 |
3% |
4% |
|
20 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
4% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
8 |
24% |
96% |
|
9 |
40% |
72% |
Median |
10 |
24% |
32% |
|
11 |
7% |
7% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
6 |
7% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
35% |
92% |
|
8 |
43% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
13% |
15% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
23% |
98.9% |
|
5 |
48% |
76% |
Median |
6 |
26% |
28% |
Last Result |
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
33% |
97% |
|
5 |
51% |
64% |
Median |
6 |
12% |
13% |
|
7 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
55% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
45% |
|
2 |
0% |
43% |
|
3 |
29% |
43% |
|
4 |
14% |
15% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
9% |
|
2 |
0% |
9% |
|
3 |
8% |
9% |
|
4 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
42 |
100% |
40–44 |
40–45 |
39–45 |
38–46 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
38 |
100% |
36–40 |
35–40 |
35–41 |
34–42 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
35 |
98.7% |
33–37 |
32–37 |
32–38 |
31–39 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
33 |
88% |
31–35 |
31–36 |
30–36 |
29–37 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
32 |
64% |
30–34 |
29–35 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
31 |
30% |
29–33 |
28–33 |
28–34 |
27–34 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
31 |
30% |
29–33 |
28–33 |
28–34 |
27–34 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
30 |
22% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–33 |
26–34 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
29 |
3% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
25–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0.3% |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–30 |
23–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
22–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–26 |
19–27 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
18–22 |
17–22 |
17–23 |
16–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
40 |
10% |
96% |
|
41 |
16% |
86% |
|
42 |
22% |
70% |
|
43 |
21% |
49% |
Median |
44 |
18% |
28% |
|
45 |
7% |
9% |
|
46 |
2% |
2% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
34 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
35 |
4% |
98% |
|
36 |
13% |
94% |
|
37 |
20% |
81% |
|
38 |
22% |
61% |
|
39 |
21% |
39% |
Median |
40 |
13% |
18% |
|
41 |
4% |
5% |
|
42 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
6% |
98.7% |
Majority |
33 |
14% |
93% |
|
34 |
25% |
79% |
|
35 |
22% |
55% |
Median |
36 |
20% |
32% |
|
37 |
10% |
13% |
|
38 |
2% |
3% |
|
39 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
31 |
9% |
96% |
|
32 |
19% |
88% |
Majority |
33 |
25% |
68% |
|
34 |
23% |
44% |
Median |
35 |
14% |
20% |
|
36 |
5% |
6% |
|
37 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
29 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
30 |
11% |
94% |
|
31 |
19% |
83% |
Median |
32 |
23% |
64% |
Majority |
33 |
22% |
41% |
|
34 |
13% |
19% |
|
35 |
5% |
7% |
|
36 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
7% |
98% |
|
29 |
14% |
91% |
|
30 |
23% |
77% |
|
31 |
23% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
18% |
30% |
Majority |
33 |
9% |
13% |
|
34 |
3% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
7% |
98% |
|
29 |
16% |
91% |
|
30 |
23% |
75% |
|
31 |
22% |
52% |
Median |
32 |
17% |
30% |
Majority |
33 |
11% |
13% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
28 |
8% |
96% |
|
29 |
18% |
88% |
|
30 |
25% |
70% |
|
31 |
23% |
45% |
Median |
32 |
14% |
22% |
Majority |
33 |
7% |
8% |
|
34 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
27 |
13% |
95% |
|
28 |
22% |
82% |
|
29 |
24% |
60% |
|
30 |
22% |
36% |
Median |
31 |
11% |
14% |
|
32 |
3% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
24 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
25 |
8% |
97% |
|
26 |
18% |
89% |
|
27 |
25% |
70% |
Median |
28 |
24% |
45% |
|
29 |
13% |
21% |
|
30 |
7% |
9% |
|
31 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
24 |
11% |
95% |
Last Result |
25 |
24% |
84% |
|
26 |
26% |
60% |
Median |
27 |
20% |
34% |
|
28 |
11% |
14% |
|
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
24 |
15% |
94% |
|
25 |
26% |
78% |
|
26 |
28% |
52% |
Median |
27 |
15% |
24% |
|
28 |
7% |
9% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
9% |
98% |
|
23 |
21% |
89% |
|
24 |
23% |
67% |
|
25 |
29% |
44% |
Median |
26 |
12% |
15% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
21 |
10% |
96% |
|
22 |
21% |
86% |
|
23 |
31% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
20% |
34% |
|
25 |
10% |
14% |
|
26 |
3% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
19 |
7% |
98% |
|
20 |
21% |
91% |
|
21 |
26% |
70% |
|
22 |
28% |
44% |
Median |
23 |
13% |
16% |
|
24 |
3% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
16% |
93% |
|
21 |
28% |
78% |
|
22 |
23% |
50% |
Median |
23 |
20% |
27% |
|
24 |
6% |
7% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
7% |
98.5% |
|
18 |
16% |
91% |
Median |
19 |
22% |
75% |
|
20 |
18% |
53% |
Last Result |
21 |
20% |
34% |
|
22 |
11% |
14% |
|
23 |
3% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Fréttablaðið, Stöð 2 and Vísir
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 804
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.59%