Opinion Poll by MMR, 12–15 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.2% 21.5–25.0% 21.0–25.6% 20.6–26.0% 19.8–26.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.8% 15.3–18.5% 14.9–18.9% 14.5–19.3% 13.8–20.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 16.7% 15.2–18.4% 14.8–18.8% 14.4–19.2% 13.7–20.0%
Píratar 9.2% 14.1% 12.7–15.7% 12.3–16.1% 12.0–16.5% 11.4–17.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.0–10.7% 6.5–11.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.2% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.2% 4.4–7.4% 4.0–8.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.3–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Píratar 6 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Viðreisn 4 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 7% 99.5%  
15 25% 93%  
16 33% 68% Last Result, Median
17 24% 35%  
18 10% 11%  
19 1.0% 1.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 1.2% 100%  
10 13% 98.8%  
11 37% 86% Median
12 38% 48%  
13 9% 10%  
14 1.1% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.1% 100%  
10 15% 98.8%  
11 41% 84% Last Result, Median
12 32% 43%  
13 10% 11%  
14 1.2% 1.4%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.7% 100%  
8 12% 99.3%  
9 39% 88% Median
10 36% 49%  
11 11% 13%  
12 1.2% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 37% 97%  
6 49% 61% Median
7 11% 12% Last Result
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 41% 96%  
6 44% 55% Median
7 10% 11%  
8 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0.9% 87%  
2 0% 86%  
3 32% 86%  
4 49% 54% Last Result, Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 36 99.7% 34–37 33–38 33–38 32–39
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 34 98% 32–36 32–37 32–37 31–38
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 33 87% 31–35 31–35 31–36 30–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 32 72% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 28 2% 27–30 26–31 26–31 25–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 28 2% 27–30 26–31 26–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 27 0.2% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0.2% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 27 0.2% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 21 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 16–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.5% 99.7% Majority
33 6% 98%  
34 15% 92%  
35 26% 78% Median
36 29% 52%  
37 17% 23%  
38 5% 6%  
39 0.9% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 2% 99.6%  
32 9% 98% Majority
33 22% 89% Last Result
34 30% 68% Median
35 22% 38%  
36 10% 16%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 10% 98%  
32 19% 87% Majority
33 35% 69% Median
34 19% 34%  
35 11% 15% Last Result
36 3% 4%  
37 1.0% 1.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.4% 99.8%  
30 8% 98%  
31 19% 90% Median
32 29% 72% Majority
33 24% 43%  
34 12% 19%  
35 5% 7%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 6% 98.8% Last Result
27 17% 93%  
28 29% 76% Median
29 25% 47%  
30 15% 22%  
31 5% 7%  
32 1.3% 2% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
26 5% 99.1%  
27 17% 94%  
28 28% 77% Median
29 27% 49%  
30 14% 22%  
31 6% 8%  
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.9%  
25 6% 98.8%  
26 18% 93%  
27 29% 75%  
28 26% 46% Median
29 14% 20%  
30 5% 6%  
31 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100% Last Result
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 5% 99.1%  
26 15% 94%  
27 30% 79% Median
28 26% 49%  
29 16% 22%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.2% 1.3%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 6% 99.1%  
26 17% 94%  
27 29% 77% Last Result, Median
28 27% 48%  
29 15% 21%  
30 5% 6%  
31 1.0% 1.2%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 4% 99.7%  
21 12% 96%  
22 29% 84%  
23 30% 55% Median
24 16% 25%  
25 7% 9%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.2% 100%  
20 3% 99.8%  
21 12% 97%  
22 25% 86% Median
23 32% 61%  
24 19% 28%  
25 7% 9%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 3% 99.7%  
20 14% 97%  
21 26% 82%  
22 31% 57% Median
23 18% 25%  
24 7% 8% Last Result
25 1.1% 1.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 3% 99.7%  
20 13% 97%  
21 26% 84%  
22 30% 58% Median
23 20% 29% Last Result
24 7% 8%  
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100% Last Result
18 2% 99.9%  
19 11% 98%  
20 24% 87% Median
21 35% 63%  
22 18% 28%  
23 7% 9%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.8%  
16 4% 98.6%  
17 7% 95%  
18 13% 87%  
19 27% 74%  
20 27% 48% Last Result, Median
21 17% 20%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 7% 99.3%  
16 26% 92%  
17 34% 66% Median
18 23% 32%  
19 8% 10% Last Result
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.8% 100%  
15 6% 99.2%  
16 25% 93%  
17 33% 68% Median
18 25% 35% Last Result
19 8% 10%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations