Opinion Poll by Gallup, 30 November–28 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.1% 24.2–26.0% 24.0–26.3% 23.8–26.5% 23.4–26.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 17.3% 16.6–18.1% 16.3–18.3% 16.2–18.5% 15.8–18.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.5% 14.8–16.3% 14.6–16.5% 14.4–16.7% 14.1–17.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.9% 11.3–12.6% 11.1–12.8% 10.9–13.0% 10.6–13.3%
Píratar 9.2% 10.1% 9.5–10.7% 9.3–10.9% 9.2–11.1% 8.9–11.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 6.5% 6.0–7.0% 5.9–7.2% 5.8–7.3% 5.5–7.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.8% 5.3–6.3% 5.2–6.4% 5.1–6.6% 4.9–6.8%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.4% 5.0–5.9% 4.8–6.1% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 11 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–13
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–10
Píratar 6 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Viðreisn 4 4 4 4 3–5 3–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 1–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.8% 100%  
16 34% 99.2% Last Result
17 51% 66% Median
18 14% 14%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 3% 100%  
11 60% 97% Last Result, Median
12 35% 37%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 7% 100%  
10 71% 93% Median
11 22% 22%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100%  
8 89% 99.3% Last Result, Median
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 59% 99.5% Last Result, Median
7 41% 41%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100%  
4 92% 95% Last Result, Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100%  
2 0% 98.7%  
3 50% 98.7% Median
4 49% 49%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 77% 87% Median
4 10% 10% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 36 100% 35–37 35–38 35–38 35–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 33 98% 32–34 32–35 32–35 31–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 32 66% 31–33 31–34 30–34 30–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 30 2% 29–31 29–31 28–31 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0% 27–29 27–30 27–30 26–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 28 0% 27–29 27–30 27–30 26–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 28 0% 27–29 27–30 26–30 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–29 25–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–27 23–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 25 0% 24–26 24–27 23–27 23–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 21 0% 21–23 20–23 20–23 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 19–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 19–21 19–22 19–22 18–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 19 0% 19–20 19–21 18–21 18–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 18 0% 17–19 17–19 17–19 16–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–17

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.5% 100%  
35 20% 99.5% Last Result
36 44% 80% Median
37 27% 36%  
38 8% 9%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 2% 99.9%  
32 21% 98% Median, Majority
33 50% 77% Last Result
34 18% 26%  
35 7% 8%  
36 0.6% 0.6%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.3% 100%  
30 4% 99.7%  
31 30% 96% Median
32 45% 66% Majority
33 14% 21%  
34 7% 7%  
35 0.7% 0.7%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100% Last Result
27 0.1% 100%  
28 5% 99.9%  
29 44% 95% Median
30 38% 52%  
31 12% 14%  
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 12% 99.3%  
28 47% 88% Median
29 31% 40%  
30 9% 9%  
31 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 23% 99.4% Last Result
28 45% 76% Median
29 25% 32%  
30 6% 7%  
31 0.7% 0.7%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.1% 100%  
26 3% 99.9%  
27 30% 97% Median
28 46% 67%  
29 15% 21%  
30 6% 6%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 2% 100%  
26 27% 98%  
27 49% 71% Median
28 18% 22%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.7% 100%  
24 30% 99.3% Last Result
25 49% 69% Median
26 17% 20%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 4% 99.8%  
24 24% 96% Median
25 48% 72% Last Result
26 17% 24%  
27 6% 6%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.8%  
22 26% 98.6% Median
23 52% 73%  
24 18% 20%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.1% 100%  
20 6% 99.9%  
21 47% 94% Median
22 36% 47%  
23 10% 10%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.4% 100%  
20 34% 98.6% Last Result
21 51% 65% Median
22 13% 14%  
23 1.1% 1.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.9%  
19 14% 98.8%  
20 49% 85% Median
21 29% 36%  
22 6% 7%  
23 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 2% 100%  
19 54% 97% Last Result, Median
20 37% 43%  
21 6% 6%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 36% 98% Last Result, Median
18 46% 62%  
19 14% 15%  
20 1.3% 1.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 30% 97% Median
15 50% 67%  
16 16% 17%  
17 1.1% 1.1%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations