Opinion Poll by MMR, 15–18 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 24.5% 22.8–26.4% 22.3–26.9% 21.9–27.4% 21.1–28.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 20.5% 18.9–22.3% 18.5–22.8% 18.1–23.2% 17.4–24.1%
Píratar 14.5% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.5% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.6%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 10.6% 9.4–12.0% 9.1–12.4% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 10.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.8%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 6.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.9–9.1%
Viðreisn 10.5% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Alþýðufylkingin 0.3% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 14 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–17
Píratar 10 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
Samfylkingin 3 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Flokkur fólksins 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 0–6
Viðreisn 7 4 3–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0–1 0–3
Alþýðufylkingin 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100%  
15 6% 99.3%  
16 22% 94%  
17 32% 71% Median
18 26% 39%  
19 10% 13%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 18% 96%  
14 35% 78% Median
15 22% 43%  
16 13% 21%  
17 8% 8%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.3% 99.9%  
8 15% 98.6%  
9 48% 83% Median
10 31% 35% Last Result
11 4% 4%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 19% 99.4%  
7 54% 80% Median
8 22% 26%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 35% 95%  
7 46% 60% Median
8 12% 14% Last Result
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.1%  
2 0% 99.1%  
3 8% 99.1%  
4 46% 91% Median
5 43% 46%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 20% 91%  
4 59% 71% Median
5 11% 12%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 1.3% 3%  
2 0% 1.4%  
3 1.3% 1.4%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Alþýðufylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alþýðufylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 34 97% 33–36 32–37 31–37 30–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 30 34 97% 33–36 32–37 31–37 30–38
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 32 54% 30–33 30–34 29–34 28–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð 27 31 30% 29–33 29–33 28–34 27–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 23 31 29% 29–33 28–33 28–34 27–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 21 28 2% 26–30 26–31 26–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 21–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 24 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 21 0% 19–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 21 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 21 0% 19–23 18–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 21 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 16–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–21

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 6% 97% Majority
33 19% 91%  
34 27% 72% Last Result, Median
35 24% 46%  
36 14% 22%  
37 6% 8%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
31 2% 99.1%  
32 6% 97% Majority
33 19% 90%  
34 27% 71% Median
35 23% 45%  
36 14% 21%  
37 6% 8%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.1%  
30 9% 96%  
31 33% 87% Last Result, Median
32 32% 54% Majority
33 14% 22%  
34 6% 8%  
35 1.5% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
28 4% 99.1%  
29 13% 95%  
30 25% 82% Median
31 27% 57%  
32 16% 30% Majority
33 10% 14%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.9% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.9%  
28 4% 99.0%  
29 13% 95%  
30 26% 81% Median
31 27% 55%  
32 15% 29% Majority
33 10% 13%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 10% 98%  
27 21% 88%  
28 23% 66% Median
29 21% 44%  
30 15% 23%  
31 5% 7%  
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 8% 98%  
23 20% 90%  
24 27% 71% Last Result, Median
25 24% 43%  
26 13% 19%  
27 5% 6%  
28 1.0% 1.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 11% 97%  
23 24% 86%  
24 29% 62% Median
25 22% 33%  
26 8% 11%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
21 5% 99.2%  
22 13% 95%  
23 29% 81% Median
24 26% 52%  
25 15% 26%  
26 8% 11%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.8% Last Result
19 9% 98%  
20 23% 89%  
21 28% 66% Median
22 19% 39%  
23 14% 19%  
24 5% 6%  
25 1.0% 1.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9%  
19 6% 99.5%  
20 18% 94%  
21 27% 76% Median
22 23% 49%  
23 18% 27%  
24 7% 9%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 1.5% 99.7%  
18 6% 98%  
19 9% 92%  
20 22% 83%  
21 29% 61% Median
22 22% 33%  
23 8% 11%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.5%  
18 6% 98%  
19 9% 92%  
20 22% 82%  
21 29% 60% Median
22 22% 32%  
23 8% 10%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 5% 99.4%  
16 22% 94%  
17 32% 72% Median
18 26% 40%  
19 10% 14%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.4% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations