Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 29.0% (General Election of 29 October 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 23.8% 20.9–25.7% 20.3–26.1% 19.8–26.5% 18.8–27.2%
23–27 October 2017 Zenter 22.5% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.8% 19.9–25.2% 19.2–26.1%
26–27 October 2017 MMR 21.3% 19.7–23.1% 19.3–23.6% 18.9–24.0% 18.1–24.9%
23–27 October 2017 Gallup 25.2% 24.1–26.5% 23.7–26.8% 23.4–27.1% 22.9–27.7%
22–25 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 24.5% 23.4–25.7% 23.0–26.0% 22.8–26.3% 22.2–26.9%
23–24 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 24.1% 22.8–25.5% 22.4–25.9% 22.1–26.2% 21.4–26.9%
20–23 October 2017 MMR 23.0% 21.3–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
13–19 October 2017 Gallup 22.6% 21.3–23.9% 21.0–24.3% 20.7–24.6% 20.1–25.3%
16–19 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 25.1% 23.9–26.4% 23.5–26.8% 23.2–27.1% 22.6–27.7%
17–18 October 2017 MMR 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.9–22.0% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
16 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 22.2% 20.4–24.2% 19.9–24.7% 19.5–25.2% 18.6–26.2%
29 September–12 October 2017 Gallup 23.7% 22.6–24.9% 22.3–25.2% 22.0–25.5% 21.5–26.0%
9–12 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 22.6% 21.1–24.2% 20.7–24.6% 20.4–25.0% 19.7–25.8%
6–11 October 2017 MMR 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.0–23.3% 18.6–23.8% 17.9–24.6%
10 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 22.2% 20.4–24.1% 19.9–24.7% 19.4–25.2% 18.6–26.1%
2–6 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 20.7% 19.1–22.5% 18.6–22.9% 18.2–23.4% 17.5–24.2%
2–3 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 22.2% 20.5–24.2% 19.9–24.8% 19.5–25.3% 18.7–26.2%
26–28 September 2017 MMR 23.5% 21.9–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.3% 20.3–27.1%
15–28 September 2017 Gallup 23.1% 22.1–24.3% 21.8–24.6% 21.5–24.9% 21.0–25.4%
25–28 September 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 24.3% 22.5–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.6–27.1% 20.9–28.0%
19–21 September 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 22.9% 21.2–24.8% 20.7–25.3% 20.3–25.8% 19.5–26.7%
15–18 September 2017 Zenter 26.4% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.8% 23.7–29.2% 22.8–30.2%
18 September 2017 Fréttablaðið 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
10–30 August 2017 Gallup 26.3% 25.1–27.5% 24.8–27.9% 24.5–28.2% 23.9–28.8%
15–18 August 2017 MMR 24.5% 22.8–26.4% 22.3–26.9% 21.9–27.4% 21.1–28.3%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16.5–17.5% 0% 100%  
17.5–18.5% 0.3% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 2% 99.7%  
19.5–20.5% 5% 98%  
20.5–21.5% 9% 93%  
21.5–22.5% 12% 84%  
22.5–23.5% 16% 72%  
23.5–24.5% 23% 56% Median
24.5–25.5% 21% 33%  
25.5–26.5% 10% 12%  
26.5–27.5% 2% 2%  
27.5–28.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
28.5–29.5% 0% 0% Last Result

Seats

Last result: 21 seats (General Election of 29 October 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 13–19
23–27 October 2017 Zenter 15 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–18
26–27 October 2017 MMR 14 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–17
23–27 October 2017 Gallup 18 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–20
22–25 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 17 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–19
23–24 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 17 16–18 16–19 15–19 15–19
20–23 October 2017 MMR 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
13–19 October 2017 Gallup 15 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–18
16–19 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 17 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
17–18 October 2017 MMR 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
16 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 16 14–17 13–18 13–18 13–19
29 September–12 October 2017 Gallup 18 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–19
9–12 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 16 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–18
6–11 October 2017 MMR 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
10 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 15 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
2–6 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
2–3 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 15 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
26–28 September 2017 MMR 17 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
15–28 September 2017 Gallup 17 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–18
25–28 September 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 17 15–18 15–19 14–20 14–21
19–21 September 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 13–18
15–18 September 2017 Zenter 18 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
18 September 2017 Fréttablaðið 15 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–20
10–30 August 2017 Gallup 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–20
15–18 August 2017 MMR 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–20

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 3% 99.6%  
14 10% 96%  
15 18% 87%  
16 19% 69% Median
17 19% 50%  
18 28% 31%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0% Last Result