Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 15.9% (General Election of 29 October 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 18.7% 16.3–20.8% 15.8–21.2% 15.3–21.6% 14.4–22.4%
23–27 October 2017 Zenter 19.5% 18.0–21.3% 17.5–21.8% 17.2–22.2% 16.4–23.0%
26–27 October 2017 MMR 16.6% 15.2–18.2% 14.8–18.7% 14.4–19.1% 13.8–19.9%
23–27 October 2017 Gallup 17.3% 16.3–18.4% 16.0–18.7% 15.7–18.9% 15.3–19.5%
22–25 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 20.2% 19.1–21.3% 18.9–21.6% 18.6–21.9% 18.1–22.4%
23–24 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 19.2% 18.0–20.5% 17.7–20.9% 17.4–21.2% 16.8–21.9%
20–23 October 2017 MMR 19.9% 18.4–21.6% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.4%
13–19 October 2017 Gallup 23.3% 22.0–24.7% 21.7–25.0% 21.4–25.4% 20.8–26.0%
16–19 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 23.2% 22.0–24.5% 21.7–24.8% 21.4–25.1% 20.8–25.7%
17–18 October 2017 MMR 19.1% 17.6–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.8–21.6% 16.1–22.5%
16 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 27.0% 25.1–29.1% 24.6–29.7% 24.1–30.2% 23.2–31.2%
29 September–12 October 2017 Gallup 23.0% 21.9–24.2% 21.6–24.5% 21.3–24.8% 20.8–25.3%
9–12 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 27.4% 25.8–29.1% 25.4–29.5% 25.0–29.9% 24.3–30.7%
6–11 October 2017 MMR 21.8% 20.2–23.6% 19.7–24.1% 19.3–24.5% 18.6–25.4%
10 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 29.9% 27.9–32.0% 27.3–32.6% 26.8–33.1% 25.9–34.2%
2–6 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.6% 25.3–31.1% 24.5–32.0%
2–3 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 28.6% 26.6–30.7% 26.1–31.3% 25.6–31.9% 24.7–32.9%
26–28 September 2017 MMR 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.6–27.0% 22.2–27.5% 21.4–28.4%
15–28 September 2017 Gallup 25.4% 24.3–26.6% 24.0–26.9% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7%
25–28 September 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 28.8% 26.9–30.7% 26.4–31.3% 26.0–31.7% 25.1–32.7%
19–21 September 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 29.9% 28.0–31.9% 27.5–32.4% 27.0–32.9% 26.1–33.9%
15–18 September 2017 Zenter 22.8% 21.1–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.6% 19.5–26.5%
18 September 2017 Fréttablaðið 22.8% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3% 20.0–25.8% 19.1–26.7%
10–30 August 2017 Gallup 19.5% 18.5–20.6% 18.2–21.0% 17.9–21.2% 17.4–21.8%
15–18 August 2017 MMR 20.5% 18.9–22.3% 18.5–22.8% 18.1–23.2% 17.4–24.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12.5–13.5% 0.1% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0.6% 99.9%  
14.5–15.5% 3% 99.4%  
15.5–16.5% 9% 96% Last Result
16.5–17.5% 17% 87%  
17.5–18.5% 17% 71%  
18.5–19.5% 20% 53% Median
19.5–20.5% 20% 34%  
20.5–21.5% 11% 13%  
21.5–22.5% 2% 3%  
22.5–23.5% 0.3% 0.3%  
23.5–24.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 10 seats (General Election of 29 October 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 13 11–14 11–15 10–16 10–16
23–27 October 2017 Zenter 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–16
26–27 October 2017 MMR 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
23–27 October 2017 Gallup 11 11–12 11–13 11–13 10–13
22–25 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 14 13–15 13–15 12–16 12–16
23–24 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 14 13–15 12–15 12–16 11–16
20–23 October 2017 MMR 14 12–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
13–19 October 2017 Gallup 16 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–19
16–19 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–19
17–18 October 2017 MMR 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–16
16 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 20 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
29 September–12 October 2017 Gallup 16 16–18 16–18 16–18 14–19
9–12 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 20 18–21 18–22 17–22 17–22
6–11 October 2017 MMR 16 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
10 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 22 20–23 20–24 20–25 18–25
2–6 October 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 20 19–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
2–3 October 2017 Fréttablaðið 21 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
26–28 September 2017 MMR 17 16–19 16–20 15–21 15–21
15–28 September 2017 Gallup 18 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–21
25–28 September 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 21 20–22 19–23 18–23 17–25
19–21 September 2017 Félagsvísindastofnun
Morgunblaðið		 22 19–22 19–22 18–23 17–23
15–18 September 2017 Zenter 15 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
18 September 2017 Fréttablaðið 16 15–17 14–18 13–18 12–19
10–30 August 2017 Gallup 14 13–14 12–15 12–15 12–15
15–18 August 2017 MMR 14 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–17

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.7% Last Result
11 23% 97%  
12 16% 74%  
13 21% 58% Median
14 29% 37%  
15 5% 8%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0% 0%