Flokkur fólksins
Voting Intentions
Last result: 3.5% (General Election of 29 October 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.3% | 3.6–5.1% | 3.5–5.3% | 3.3–5.5% | 3.0–6.0% |
| 23–27 October 2017 | Zenter | 4.3% | 3.5–5.2% | 3.3–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.8–6.2% |
| 26–27 October 2017 | MMR | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| 23–27 October 2017 | Gallup | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% |
| 22–25 October 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
4.2% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.6–5.0% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.2–5.4% |
| 23–24 October 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 4.4% | 3.8–5.1% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.2–5.9% |
| 20–23 October 2017 | MMR | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.5–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| 13–19 October 2017 | Gallup | 5.7% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.4–7.3% |
| 16–19 October 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% |
| 17–18 October 2017 | MMR | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| 16 October 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 3.7% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.6–5.3% | 2.3–5.8% |
| 29 September–12 October 2017 | Gallup | 5.7% | 5.1–6.4% | 5.0–6.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.1% |
| 9–12 October 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.9–8.5% |
| 6–11 October 2017 | MMR | 7.3% | 6.4–8.5% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.4–9.8% |
| 10 October 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 6.1% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.9–7.7% | 4.6–8.0% | 4.2–8.6% |
| 2–6 October 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.3–11.0% | 6.9–11.7% |
| 2–3 October 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 5.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.6–7.3% | 4.3–7.6% | 3.9–8.2% |
| 26–28 September 2017 | MMR | 8.5% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.9–10.4% | 6.5–11.0% |
| 15–28 September 2017 | Gallup | 10.1% | 9.4–10.9% | 9.2–11.2% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% |
| 25–28 September 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
6.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.3–8.0% | 5.1–8.3% | 4.7–8.8% |
| 19–21 September 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
8.9% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.6% | 7.2–11.0% | 6.7–11.6% |
| 15–18 September 2017 | Zenter | 9.8% | 8.7–11.2% | 8.4–11.6% | 8.1–11.9% | 7.6–12.6% |
| 18 September 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 10.9% | 9.6–12.4% | 9.2–12.8% | 8.9–13.2% | 8.3–14.0% |
| 10–30 August 2017 | Gallup | 10.6% | 9.8–11.5% | 9.6–11.7% | 9.4–11.9% | 9.0–12.4% |
| 15–18 August 2017 | MMR | 6.7% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.5% | 4.9–9.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Flokkur fólksins.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 7% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 62% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 28% | 31% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 29 October 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 23–27 October 2017 | Zenter | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 26–27 October 2017 | MMR | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 23–27 October 2017 | Gallup | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| 22–25 October 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 23–24 October 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 20–23 October 2017 | MMR | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 13–19 October 2017 | Gallup | 3 | 3–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 16–19 October 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–18 October 2017 | MMR | 3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 16 October 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 29 September–12 October 2017 | Gallup | 4 | 3–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 9–12 October 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 0–6 |
| 6–11 October 2017 | MMR | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| 10 October 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 4 | 3–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 2–6 October 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 2–3 October 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 26–28 September 2017 | MMR | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 15–28 September 2017 | Gallup | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 25–28 September 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 0–6 |
| 19–21 September 2017 | Félagsvísindastofnun Morgunblaðið |
6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 15–18 September 2017 | Zenter | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 18 September 2017 | Fréttablaðið | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 10–30 August 2017 | Gallup | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 15–18 August 2017 | MMR | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 0–6 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Flokkur fólksins.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 10% | |
| 3 | 9% | 10% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |