Opinion Poll by Gallup, 10–30 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 26.3% 25.1–27.5% 24.8–27.9% 24.5–28.2% 23.9–28.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 19.5% 18.5–20.6% 18.2–21.0% 17.9–21.2% 17.4–21.8%
Píratar 14.5% 13.1% 12.2–14.1% 12.0–14.4% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 10.8% 10.0–11.7% 9.8–12.0% 9.6–12.2% 9.2–12.6%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 10.6% 9.8–11.5% 9.6–11.7% 9.4–11.9% 9.0–12.4%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 9.7% 8.9–10.6% 8.7–10.8% 8.5–11.0% 8.2–11.4%
Viðreisn 10.5% 4.8% 4.2–5.4% 4.1–5.6% 4.0–5.8% 3.7–6.1%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 2.8% 2.4–3.3% 2.3–3.5% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 14 13–14 12–15 12–15 12–15
Píratar 10 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
Flokkur fólksins 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Samfylkingin 3 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
Viðreisn 7 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 13% 99.4%  
18 38% 86% Median
19 34% 48%  
20 13% 14%  
21 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 100%  
12 8% 99.9%  
13 39% 92%  
14 45% 53% Median
15 8% 8%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 17% 99.3%  
9 68% 82% Median
10 14% 14% Last Result
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100%  
7 59% 95% Median
8 36% 36% Last Result
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 11% 99.9%  
7 64% 89% Median
8 25% 25%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 1.5% 100%  
6 46% 98.5%  
7 50% 52% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Median
1 0% 33%  
2 0% 33%  
3 30% 33%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 32 69% 30–34 30–34 30–34 29–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 30 14% 29–32 29–32 28–32 27–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 30 30 14% 29–32 29–32 28–32 27–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð 27 29 0.3% 28–30 27–31 27–31 26–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 23 29 0.3% 28–30 27–31 27–31 26–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 21 27 0% 26–29 26–29 25–29 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 26 0% 24–27 24–27 24–27 23–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 25 0% 24–26 23–27 23–27 23–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 23 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 21 0% 20–22 19–22 19–23 19–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 19 0% 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 20 0% 19–21 18–22 18–22 18–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 19 0% 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 18 0% 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–20

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.0% 100%  
30 12% 99.0%  
31 18% 87% Last Result
32 34% 69% Median, Majority
33 24% 35%  
34 10% 11%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.7% 100%  
28 4% 99.3%  
29 35% 96%  
30 27% 61% Median
31 20% 34%  
32 13% 14% Majority
33 1.2% 1.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.7% 100%  
28 4% 99.3%  
29 35% 96%  
30 27% 61% Last Result, Median
31 20% 34%  
32 13% 14% Majority
33 1.2% 1.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 1.0% 100%  
27 8% 99.0% Last Result
28 16% 91%  
29 45% 75%  
30 22% 30% Median
31 8% 8%  
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 1.0% 100%  
27 8% 99.0%  
28 16% 91%  
29 45% 75%  
30 22% 30% Median
31 8% 8%  
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 4% 99.9%  
26 16% 96%  
27 32% 80%  
28 34% 48% Median
29 13% 14%  
30 1.5% 1.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.6% 100%  
24 11% 99.4%  
25 27% 88% Median
26 31% 61%  
27 28% 30%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 8% 99.6%  
24 20% 91% Last Result
25 39% 71% Median
26 27% 33%  
27 6% 6%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.4% 100% Last Result
21 12% 98.6%  
22 36% 87%  
23 39% 51% Median
24 11% 12%  
25 1.0% 1.0%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100% Last Result
19 8% 99.8%  
20 23% 92%  
21 48% 70% Median
22 19% 22%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 2% 100%  
18 23% 98% Median
19 29% 75%  
20 23% 46%  
21 15% 23%  
22 8% 8%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 6% 99.9%  
19 21% 94%  
20 42% 74%  
21 26% 32% Median
22 6% 6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 2% 100%  
18 23% 98% Median
19 29% 75%  
20 23% 46%  
21 15% 23%  
22 8% 8%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 13% 99.4%  
18 38% 86% Median
19 34% 48%  
20 13% 14%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations