Opinion Poll by Fréttablaðið, 18 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 23.0% 21.2–25.0% 20.7–25.6% 20.2–26.0% 19.4–27.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 22.8% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3% 20.0–25.8% 19.1–26.7%
Píratar 14.5% 13.8% 12.3–15.4% 11.9–15.9% 11.5–16.3% 10.9–17.1%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 10.9% 9.6–12.4% 9.2–12.8% 8.9–13.2% 8.3–14.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 10.4% 9.1–11.9% 8.7–12.3% 8.4–12.7% 7.9–13.4%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 7.1% 6.1–8.4% 5.8–8.8% 5.5–9.1% 5.1–9.8%
Viðreisn 10.5% 5.2% 4.4–6.4% 4.1–6.7% 3.9–7.0% 3.5–7.6%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.6% 3.8–6.9% 3.4–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 15 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 16 15–17 14–18 13–18 12–19
Píratar 10 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–12
Flokkur fólksins 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–10
Björt framtíð 4 4 4–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Viðreisn 7 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Samfylkingin 3 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 20% 99.1%  
15 37% 79% Median
16 26% 42%  
17 11% 17%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.6% 100%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 3% 97%  
15 10% 94%  
16 36% 85% Median
17 42% 49%  
18 6% 7%  
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 3% 99.7%  
8 25% 96%  
9 42% 71% Median
10 22% 29% Last Result
11 6% 7%  
12 0.9% 0.9%  
13 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 24% 96%  
7 45% 72% Median
8 22% 27%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 5% 99.7%  
6 36% 95%  
7 38% 58% Median
8 16% 20% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0.2% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 8% 99.6%  
4 46% 91% Last Result, Median
5 38% 46%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 0% 63%  
2 0.1% 63%  
3 43% 63% Median
4 19% 20%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100%  
1 0% 57%  
2 0.3% 57%  
3 41% 56% Last Result, Median
4 15% 16%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin 34 34 90% 31–36 31–36 30–37 29–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 32 56% 30–34 30–34 29–35 28–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Björt framtíð – Samfylkingin 27 32 55% 30–34 29–34 28–35 27–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin 30 29 13% 27–32 26–32 26–33 24–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 23 27 0.2% 25–29 25–30 24–30 22–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 26 0% 24–27 23–27 22–28 21–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 21 25 0% 23–27 22–28 21–28 20–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 23 0% 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn 32 22 0% 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 20 0% 18–22 18–22 17–23 17–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 18 0% 16–20 15–21 15–21 13–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 17 0% 15–19 15–20 14–21 14–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 18 0% 15–20 15–20 14–21 14–22

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.0%  
31 7% 97%  
32 10% 90% Majority
33 19% 80%  
34 27% 61% Last Result
35 18% 34% Median
36 13% 16%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.0% 99.7%  
29 4% 98.8%  
30 13% 95%  
31 25% 82% Last Result, Median
32 27% 56% Majority
33 16% 29%  
34 8% 13%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.7% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Björt framtíð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 1.0% 99.5% Last Result
28 2% 98.5%  
29 5% 97%  
30 17% 92%  
31 21% 75%  
32 22% 55% Median, Majority
33 18% 32%  
34 11% 14%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 6% 98%  
27 9% 92%  
28 13% 83%  
29 22% 70%  
30 20% 49% Last Result
31 16% 29% Median
32 10% 13% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 1.2% 99.1% Last Result
24 3% 98%  
25 11% 95%  
26 19% 84%  
27 18% 65%  
28 21% 46% Median
29 17% 26%  
30 8% 9%  
31 1.2% 1.4%  
32 0.1% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100% Last Result
21 1.3% 99.8%  
22 3% 98%  
23 4% 96%  
24 11% 92%  
25 31% 81% Median
26 33% 50%  
27 14% 17%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.4% Last Result
22 7% 97%  
23 14% 90%  
24 17% 76%  
25 17% 59%  
26 21% 42% Median
27 12% 21%  
28 7% 9%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100% Last Result
19 1.0% 99.8%  
20 2% 98.8%  
21 7% 97%  
22 20% 90%  
23 33% 70% Median
24 23% 37%  
25 11% 15%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.9%  
20 9% 98.8%  
21 23% 90%  
22 28% 67% Median
23 22% 40%  
24 11% 17%  
25 5% 7%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 6% 98%  
20 12% 92%  
21 19% 81%  
22 23% 62% Median
23 19% 39%  
24 12% 20%  
25 5% 7%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 14% 97%  
19 26% 83% Median
20 26% 58%  
21 18% 32%  
22 9% 14%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.0% 1.1%  
25 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
14 1.2% 99.4%  
15 4% 98%  
16 16% 95%  
17 21% 79%  
18 8% 58%  
19 18% 50% Median
20 23% 31%  
21 7% 8%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 13% 95%  
16 15% 83%  
17 19% 68%  
18 25% 48% Median
19 14% 24%  
20 6% 9%  
21 2% 3%  
22 1.0% 1.3%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 11% 97%  
16 12% 86%  
17 19% 74%  
18 25% 54% Median
19 19% 30%  
20 7% 11%  
21 2% 4%  
22 1.0% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations