Opinion Poll by Zenter, 15–18 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 26.4% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.8% 23.7–29.2% 22.8–30.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 22.8% 21.1–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.6% 19.5–26.5%
Píratar 14.5% 12.4% 11.2–13.9% 10.8–14.3% 10.5–14.7% 9.9–15.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.1–13.2%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 9.8% 8.7–11.2% 8.4–11.6% 8.1–11.9% 7.6–12.6%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.7% 7.3–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 3.9–7.7%
Viðreisn 10.5% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–4.0% 1.6–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 18 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 15 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Píratar 10 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Flokkur fólksins 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Samfylkingin 3 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Björt framtíð 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Viðreisn 7 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 10% 98%  
17 29% 88%  
18 35% 60% Median
19 18% 25%  
20 6% 7%  
21 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 17% 97%  
15 36% 80% Median
16 30% 44%  
17 12% 14%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.3% 100%  
7 19% 98.7%  
8 45% 80% Median
9 31% 35%  
10 4% 4% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100%  
6 32% 96%  
7 49% 65% Median
8 15% 16% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 10% 99.8%  
6 51% 90% Median
7 34% 39%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 2% 100%  
5 33% 98%  
6 51% 65% Median
7 13% 14%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 1.3% 80%  
2 0% 78%  
3 41% 78% Median
4 36% 37% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 31 33 90% 31–35 31–36 31–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð 27 32 68% 30–34 30–34 29–35 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn 34 32 68% 30–34 30–34 29–35 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 23 29 6% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 30 29 6% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 21 28 0.5% 26–30 26–30 25–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 22–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 21 0% 18–22 18–23 17–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn 32 21 0% 18–22 18–23 17–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 18 0% 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.5% 99.9%  
31 9% 98% Last Result
32 22% 90% Majority
33 30% 68% Median
34 21% 38%  
35 12% 17%  
36 5% 6%  
37 0.9% 1.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100% Last Result
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.4%  
30 8% 96%  
31 21% 88%  
32 28% 68% Median, Majority
33 24% 40%  
34 12% 15%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.4%  
30 8% 96%  
31 21% 88%  
32 28% 68% Median, Majority
33 24% 40%  
34 12% 15% Last Result
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.2% 99.9%  
27 6% 98.7%  
28 21% 93%  
29 28% 72% Median
30 24% 44%  
31 14% 20%  
32 5% 6% Majority
33 1.1% 1.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.2% 99.9%  
27 6% 98.7%  
28 21% 93%  
29 28% 72% Median
30 24% 44% Last Result
31 14% 20%  
32 5% 6% Majority
33 1.1% 1.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 12% 97%  
27 22% 85%  
28 30% 63% Median
29 20% 32%  
30 9% 12%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.5% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 4% 99.5%  
23 17% 96%  
24 27% 79%  
25 30% 52% Median
26 16% 23%  
27 6% 7%  
28 1.0% 1.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100% Last Result
21 3% 99.5%  
22 16% 96%  
23 30% 80% Median
24 27% 50%  
25 17% 23%  
26 5% 6%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 4% 99.4%  
22 15% 96%  
23 30% 81%  
24 29% 51% Last Result, Median
25 15% 22%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.8% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100% Last Result
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 7% 99.2%  
21 26% 93%  
22 27% 67% Median
23 25% 40%  
24 12% 15%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.8% 100%  
19 7% 99.1%  
20 22% 92%  
21 33% 70% Median
22 24% 37%  
23 11% 14%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 3% 99.6%  
18 8% 97%  
19 11% 88%  
20 22% 77%  
21 28% 56% Median
22 19% 27%  
23 7% 8%  
24 1.0% 1.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 3% 99.6%  
18 8% 97%  
19 11% 88%  
20 22% 77%  
21 28% 56% Median
22 19% 27%  
23 7% 8%  
24 1.0% 1.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 10% 98%  
17 29% 88%  
18 35% 60% Median
19 18% 25%  
20 6% 7%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations