Opinion Poll by Félagsvísindastofnun for Morgunblaðið, 19–21 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 15.9% 29.9% 28.0–31.9% 27.5–32.4% 27.0–32.9% 26.1–33.9%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 29.0% 22.9% 21.2–24.8% 20.7–25.3% 20.3–25.8% 19.5–26.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 11.5% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.3–12.8% 9.1–13.1% 8.5–13.8%
Píratar 14.5% 9.9% 8.7–11.3% 8.4–11.7% 8.1–12.0% 7.6–12.7%
Flokkur fólksins 3.5% 8.9% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.6% 7.2–11.0% 6.7–11.6%
Samfylkingin 5.7% 7.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 5.9–10.5%
Viðreisn 10.5% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.3%
Björt framtíð 7.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 10 22 19–22 19–22 18–23 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 13–18
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Píratar 10 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Flokkur fólksins 0 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Samfylkingin 3 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Viðreisn 7 3 3–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Björt framtíð 4 0 0 0 0 0

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.5% 100%  
18 3% 99.4%  
19 10% 96%  
20 14% 86%  
21 21% 72%  
22 47% 51% Median
23 4% 4%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 6% 99.8%  
14 29% 93%  
15 37% 65% Median
16 19% 28%  
17 8% 9%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 25% 98%  
7 49% 73% Median
8 22% 25% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 15% 99.7%  
6 53% 85% Median
7 27% 32%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 44% 95%  
6 44% 52% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.2% 100% Last Result
4 27% 98.8%  
5 51% 72% Median
6 20% 21%  
7 1.0% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 40% 90% Median
4 45% 50%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Björt framtíð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Björt framtíð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 31 36 99.9% 34–38 34–38 33–39 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 34 36 99.6% 34–37 33–37 33–38 32–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 30 36 99.6% 34–37 33–37 33–38 32–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð 27 32 77% 31–34 30–34 30–35 29–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 21 33 87% 31–35 31–35 30–35 29–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 23 32 77% 31–34 30–34 30–35 29–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 18 28 0.2% 26–30 26–30 25–30 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 20 28 0% 25–29 25–29 24–29 24–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 13 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 29 22 0% 20–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 24 20 0% 18–22 18–22 18–23 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð 32 18 0% 17–20 16–20 15–21 14–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 28 18 0% 17–20 16–20 15–21 14–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð 25 15 0% 14–16 13–17 13–17 13–18

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100% Last Result
32 0.7% 99.9% Majority
33 3% 99.2%  
34 9% 96%  
35 21% 87%  
36 28% 66%  
37 24% 38% Median
38 10% 14%  
39 4% 4%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6% Majority
33 6% 98%  
34 12% 92% Last Result
35 25% 80%  
36 33% 55% Median
37 18% 22%  
38 4% 4%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100% Last Result
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6% Majority
33 6% 98%  
34 12% 92%  
35 25% 80%  
36 33% 54% Median
37 18% 22%  
38 4% 4%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0.3% 100%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 7% 98%  
31 14% 91%  
32 34% 77% Majority
33 30% 43% Median
34 11% 13%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.4%  
31 9% 96%  
32 20% 87% Majority
33 30% 68%  
34 27% 37% Median
35 9% 10%  
36 1.3% 1.5%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.4% 100%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 7% 98%  
31 14% 91%  
32 34% 77% Majority
33 30% 43% Median
34 11% 13%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 4% 99.3%  
26 9% 95%  
27 19% 86%  
28 25% 68%  
29 27% 42% Median
30 14% 15%  
31 1.2% 1.4%  
32 0.1% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.4% 100%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 8% 97%  
26 14% 89%  
27 25% 76%  
28 35% 51% Median
29 13% 15%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100% Last Result
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.3%  
24 7% 96%  
25 17% 89%  
26 33% 72%  
27 33% 39% Median
28 5% 5%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.0% 100%  
20 10% 98.9%  
21 28% 89%  
22 30% 62% Median
23 21% 32%  
24 8% 10%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 11% 98%  
19 30% 88%  
20 27% 58% Median
21 19% 31%  
22 9% 12%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 6% 97%  
17 17% 91%  
18 33% 74% Median
19 24% 41%  
20 12% 16%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 6% 97%  
17 17% 91%  
18 33% 74% Median
19 24% 41%  
20 12% 16%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Björt framtíð

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 6% 99.8%  
14 28% 93%  
15 36% 65% Median
16 19% 28%  
17 8% 9%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations