Opinion Poll by MMR, 9–17 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.8% 24.5–27.3% 24.1–27.7% 23.8–28.0% 23.1–28.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.9% 12.9–15.1% 12.6–15.4% 12.3–15.7% 11.8–16.3%
Píratar 9.2% 12.2% 11.2–13.4% 11.0–13.7% 10.7–13.9% 10.3–14.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.2% 10.3–12.3% 10.0–12.6% 9.8–12.9% 9.3–13.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.9% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.8–8.3% 5.4–8.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 6.2% 5.5–7.1% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.5% 4.8–7.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.1% 5.4–6.9% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.4% 4.7–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Viðreisn 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 3–4 0–4 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.5% 100%  
16 17% 98% Last Result
17 28% 81%  
18 41% 54% Median
19 12% 13%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 37% 98%  
10 51% 62% Median
11 10% 10% Last Result
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.8% 100% Last Result
8 18% 99.2%  
9 58% 81% Median
10 23% 23%  
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.1% 100% Last Result
7 32% 98.9%  
8 50% 67% Median
9 16% 17%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 7% 100%  
7 33% 93%  
8 59% 60% Last Result, Median
9 1.3% 1.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100%  
4 72% 96% Median
5 24% 24%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0.4% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 26% 98%  
4 68% 71% Last Result, Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 40% 97%  
4 55% 57% Last Result, Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 35 99.9% 33–36 33–36 33–37 32–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 16% 29–32 29–32 29–33 28–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 30 14% 29–32 28–32 28–33 28–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 0.9% 28–31 27–31 27–31 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 27 0% 26–29 26–29 25–29 25–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 27 0% 25–28 25–29 24–29 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 25–28 25–28 25–28 24–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–28 25–28 24–28 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 24–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 22–24 21–25 21–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–24 19–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 20–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 19 0% 18–20 17–20 17–21 17–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 18 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–16 12–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 1.4% 99.9% Majority
33 13% 98.5%  
34 27% 86%  
35 33% 58% Last Result
36 22% 26% Median
37 3% 4%  
38 0.5% 0.5%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 14% 98%  
30 34% 84%  
31 33% 49% Median
32 12% 16% Majority
33 3% 4% Last Result
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 6% 99.8% Last Result
29 19% 94%  
30 35% 75%  
31 27% 40% Median
32 9% 14% Majority
33 4% 4%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 6% 99.4%  
28 18% 93%  
29 32% 75%  
30 32% 43% Median
31 10% 11% Last Result
32 0.8% 0.9% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 4% 99.8%  
26 23% 96%  
27 37% 73% Last Result
28 24% 36% Median
29 10% 12%  
30 1.2% 1.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 3% 100% Last Result
25 16% 97%  
26 27% 81%  
27 34% 54% Median
28 15% 20%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100% Last Result
24 2% 99.8%  
25 13% 98%  
26 34% 85%  
27 35% 51% Median
28 13% 16%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 3% 99.8%  
25 20% 96%  
26 32% 76% Last Result
27 33% 44% Median
28 10% 11%  
29 1.3% 1.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.9% 100%  
23 9% 99.1%  
24 19% 90% Last Result
25 33% 71%  
26 35% 38% Median
27 3% 3%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 5% 99.7%  
22 26% 95%  
23 42% 68% Median
24 20% 26%  
25 5% 6% Last Result
26 1.0% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.9% 100%  
20 15% 99.1%  
21 26% 84%  
22 36% 58% Median
23 20% 22% Last Result
24 3% 3%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 14% 98%  
21 37% 84%  
22 33% 47% Median
23 12% 14%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.7%  
19 5% 98.5%  
20 21% 94% Last Result
21 30% 73%  
22 36% 43% Median
23 7% 7%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 9% 99.5%  
18 29% 91% Last Result
19 42% 62% Median
20 17% 20%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 18% 98%  
17 40% 80%  
18 33% 40% Median
19 7% 7% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 14% 99.4%  
17 35% 86% Last Result
18 36% 51% Median
19 13% 15%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 30% 98%  
14 48% 68% Median
15 17% 21%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations