Opinion Poll by MMR, 9–17 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
25.8% |
24.5–27.3% |
24.1–27.7% |
23.8–28.0% |
23.1–28.7% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
15.0% |
13.9–16.2% |
13.6–16.5% |
13.3–16.8% |
12.8–17.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.9% |
12.9–15.1% |
12.6–15.4% |
12.3–15.7% |
11.8–16.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.2% |
11.2–13.4% |
11.0–13.7% |
10.7–13.9% |
10.3–14.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.2% |
10.3–12.3% |
10.0–12.6% |
9.8–12.9% |
9.3–13.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.9% |
6.1–7.8% |
5.9–8.0% |
5.8–8.3% |
5.4–8.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
6.2% |
5.5–7.1% |
5.3–7.3% |
5.1–7.5% |
4.8–7.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.1% |
5.4–6.9% |
5.2–7.2% |
5.0–7.4% |
4.7–7.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
16 |
17% |
98% |
Last Result |
17 |
28% |
81% |
|
18 |
41% |
54% |
Median |
19 |
12% |
13% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
2% |
100% |
|
9 |
37% |
98% |
|
10 |
51% |
62% |
Median |
11 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
12 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.8% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
18% |
99.2% |
|
9 |
58% |
81% |
Median |
10 |
23% |
23% |
|
11 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
1.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
32% |
98.9% |
|
8 |
50% |
67% |
Median |
9 |
16% |
17% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
7% |
100% |
|
7 |
33% |
93% |
|
8 |
59% |
60% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
4% |
100% |
|
4 |
72% |
96% |
Median |
5 |
24% |
24% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
2 |
0% |
98% |
|
3 |
26% |
98% |
|
4 |
68% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
97% |
|
2 |
0% |
97% |
|
3 |
40% |
97% |
|
4 |
55% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
35 |
99.9% |
33–36 |
33–36 |
33–37 |
32–38 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
16% |
29–32 |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
14% |
29–32 |
28–32 |
28–33 |
28–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0.9% |
28–31 |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
27 |
0% |
26–29 |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
17–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–16 |
12–16 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
Majority |
33 |
13% |
98.5% |
|
34 |
27% |
86% |
|
35 |
33% |
58% |
Last Result |
36 |
22% |
26% |
Median |
37 |
3% |
4% |
|
38 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
14% |
98% |
|
30 |
34% |
84% |
|
31 |
33% |
49% |
Median |
32 |
12% |
16% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
6% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
29 |
19% |
94% |
|
30 |
35% |
75% |
|
31 |
27% |
40% |
Median |
32 |
9% |
14% |
Majority |
33 |
4% |
4% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
27 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
18% |
93% |
|
29 |
32% |
75% |
|
30 |
32% |
43% |
Median |
31 |
10% |
11% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
23% |
96% |
|
27 |
37% |
73% |
Last Result |
28 |
24% |
36% |
Median |
29 |
10% |
12% |
|
30 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
16% |
97% |
|
26 |
27% |
81% |
|
27 |
34% |
54% |
Median |
28 |
15% |
20% |
|
29 |
5% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
13% |
98% |
|
26 |
34% |
85% |
|
27 |
35% |
51% |
Median |
28 |
13% |
16% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
20% |
96% |
|
26 |
32% |
76% |
Last Result |
27 |
33% |
44% |
Median |
28 |
10% |
11% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
23 |
9% |
99.1% |
|
24 |
19% |
90% |
Last Result |
25 |
33% |
71% |
|
26 |
35% |
38% |
Median |
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
26% |
95% |
|
23 |
42% |
68% |
Median |
24 |
20% |
26% |
|
25 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
26 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
20 |
15% |
99.1% |
|
21 |
26% |
84% |
|
22 |
36% |
58% |
Median |
23 |
20% |
22% |
Last Result |
24 |
3% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
14% |
98% |
|
21 |
37% |
84% |
|
22 |
33% |
47% |
Median |
23 |
12% |
14% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
5% |
98.5% |
|
20 |
21% |
94% |
Last Result |
21 |
30% |
73% |
|
22 |
36% |
43% |
Median |
23 |
7% |
7% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
17 |
9% |
99.5% |
|
18 |
29% |
91% |
Last Result |
19 |
42% |
62% |
Median |
20 |
17% |
20% |
|
21 |
2% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
18% |
98% |
|
17 |
40% |
80% |
|
18 |
33% |
40% |
Median |
19 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
16 |
14% |
99.4% |
|
17 |
35% |
86% |
Last Result |
18 |
36% |
51% |
Median |
19 |
13% |
15% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
30% |
98% |
|
14 |
48% |
68% |
Median |
15 |
17% |
21% |
|
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–17 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1594
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.96%