Opinion Poll by MMR, 25–30 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.3% |
20.6–24.1% |
20.1–24.6% |
19.7–25.1% |
19.0–26.0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
18.4% |
16.9–20.1% |
16.4–20.6% |
16.1–21.0% |
15.3–21.9% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.9% |
13.5–16.5% |
13.1–16.9% |
12.7–17.3% |
12.1–18.1% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.9% |
11.6–14.4% |
11.2–14.9% |
10.9–15.2% |
10.3–16.0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.2% |
10.0–12.6% |
9.6–13.0% |
9.3–13.4% |
8.8–14.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
7.7% |
6.6–8.9% |
6.4–9.2% |
6.1–9.5% |
5.7–10.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.2% |
4.9–7.5% |
4.7–7.8% |
4.3–8.3% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.2% |
3.5–5.2% |
3.3–5.5% |
3.1–5.7% |
2.8–6.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
19% |
96% |
|
15 |
40% |
77% |
Median |
16 |
26% |
37% |
Last Result |
17 |
9% |
11% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
13% |
98.9% |
Last Result |
12 |
34% |
86% |
|
13 |
34% |
52% |
Median |
14 |
15% |
18% |
|
15 |
2% |
3% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
19% |
97% |
|
10 |
51% |
78% |
Median |
11 |
23% |
27% |
|
12 |
4% |
4% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
42% |
93% |
|
9 |
34% |
51% |
Median |
10 |
14% |
16% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
8% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
40% |
91% |
|
8 |
39% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
11% |
12% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
23% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
58% |
77% |
Median |
6 |
18% |
19% |
|
7 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
7% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
2 |
0% |
93% |
|
3 |
24% |
93% |
|
4 |
58% |
70% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
12% |
12% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
13% |
|
2 |
0% |
13% |
|
3 |
12% |
13% |
|
4 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
35 |
99.7% |
34–37 |
33–38 |
33–38 |
32–40 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
35 |
99.5% |
33–37 |
33–37 |
32–38 |
31–39 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
35 |
98.8% |
33–37 |
33–37 |
32–37 |
31–38 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
31 |
41% |
29–33 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
30 |
15% |
28–32 |
28–32 |
27–33 |
27–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
28 |
0.4% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–31 |
25–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0.4% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
28 |
0.2% |
26–29 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–23 |
17–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
15–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
15–21 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
32 |
2% |
99.7% |
Majority |
33 |
8% |
98% |
|
34 |
16% |
90% |
|
35 |
28% |
75% |
Last Result |
36 |
29% |
47% |
Median |
37 |
12% |
18% |
|
38 |
4% |
6% |
|
39 |
1.0% |
1.5% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
3% |
99.5% |
Majority |
33 |
8% |
96% |
Last Result |
34 |
19% |
89% |
|
35 |
30% |
70% |
|
36 |
23% |
39% |
Median |
37 |
12% |
16% |
|
38 |
4% |
5% |
|
39 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
4% |
98.8% |
Majority |
33 |
11% |
95% |
|
34 |
21% |
85% |
|
35 |
34% |
64% |
|
36 |
18% |
30% |
Median |
37 |
10% |
12% |
|
38 |
2% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.5% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
9% |
98% |
|
30 |
18% |
90% |
|
31 |
30% |
71% |
|
32 |
22% |
41% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
14% |
19% |
|
34 |
4% |
5% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
27 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
7% |
97% |
|
29 |
18% |
90% |
|
30 |
32% |
72% |
|
31 |
25% |
40% |
Median |
32 |
11% |
15% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
4% |
|
34 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
25 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
26 |
12% |
95% |
|
27 |
19% |
83% |
Last Result |
28 |
37% |
64% |
Median |
29 |
18% |
27% |
|
30 |
6% |
9% |
|
31 |
2% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
14% |
96% |
|
27 |
22% |
82% |
|
28 |
34% |
60% |
Median |
29 |
18% |
26% |
|
30 |
6% |
8% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
6% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
26 |
12% |
93% |
|
27 |
25% |
81% |
|
28 |
34% |
56% |
Median |
29 |
15% |
22% |
|
30 |
6% |
7% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
9% |
98% |
|
24 |
21% |
88% |
|
25 |
29% |
67% |
|
26 |
25% |
38% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
10% |
14% |
|
28 |
3% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
6% |
98% |
Last Result |
24 |
19% |
93% |
|
25 |
30% |
73% |
Median |
26 |
27% |
43% |
|
27 |
12% |
16% |
|
28 |
4% |
5% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
12% |
97% |
|
22 |
24% |
85% |
|
23 |
36% |
61% |
Median |
24 |
18% |
25% |
Last Result |
25 |
6% |
8% |
|
26 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
21 |
14% |
96% |
|
22 |
24% |
82% |
|
23 |
36% |
58% |
Median |
24 |
16% |
22% |
|
25 |
5% |
6% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
7% |
99.1% |
|
20 |
22% |
92% |
|
21 |
34% |
71% |
|
22 |
21% |
37% |
Median |
23 |
13% |
16% |
|
24 |
3% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
7% |
98.6% |
|
19 |
23% |
91% |
Last Result |
20 |
29% |
68% |
|
21 |
27% |
39% |
Median |
22 |
9% |
12% |
|
23 |
3% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
19 |
21% |
94% |
|
20 |
33% |
73% |
Median |
21 |
28% |
39% |
|
22 |
9% |
11% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.5% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
3% |
98% |
|
17 |
8% |
95% |
|
18 |
23% |
87% |
|
19 |
34% |
64% |
Median |
20 |
21% |
30% |
Last Result |
21 |
8% |
9% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
14% |
96% |
|
17 |
29% |
81% |
|
18 |
33% |
52% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
15% |
20% |
|
20 |
4% |
4% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25–30 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 928
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.77%