Opinion Poll by MMR, 25–30 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.3% 20.6–24.1% 20.1–24.6% 19.7–25.1% 19.0–26.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 18.4% 16.9–20.1% 16.4–20.6% 16.1–21.0% 15.3–21.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.9% 13.5–16.5% 13.1–16.9% 12.7–17.3% 12.1–18.1%
Píratar 9.2% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.2–14.9% 10.9–15.2% 10.3–16.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.6–13.0% 9.3–13.4% 8.8–14.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.7% 6.6–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.7–10.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 13 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–15
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–12
Píratar 6 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Viðreisn 4 4 3–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 4% 99.7%  
14 19% 96%  
15 40% 77% Median
16 26% 37% Last Result
17 9% 11%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.1% 100%  
11 13% 98.9% Last Result
12 34% 86%  
13 34% 52% Median
14 15% 18%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 3% 99.9%  
9 19% 97%  
10 51% 78% Median
11 23% 27%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 7% 99.8%  
8 42% 93%  
9 34% 51% Median
10 14% 16%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 8% 99.6%  
7 40% 91%  
8 39% 51% Last Result, Median
9 11% 12%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 23% 99.5%  
5 58% 77% Median
6 18% 19%  
7 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0.2% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 24% 93%  
4 58% 70% Last Result, Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 12% 13%  
4 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 35 99.7% 34–37 33–38 33–38 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 35 99.5% 33–37 33–37 32–38 31–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 35 98.8% 33–37 33–37 32–37 31–38
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 31 41% 29–33 29–34 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 30 15% 28–32 28–32 27–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 28 0.4% 26–29 26–30 25–31 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0.4% 26–29 26–30 25–30 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 28 0.2% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 20 0% 19–22 18–22 18–23 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 19–22 18–22 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 18 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 2% 99.7% Majority
33 8% 98%  
34 16% 90%  
35 28% 75% Last Result
36 29% 47% Median
37 12% 18%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.0% 1.5%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.5% Majority
33 8% 96% Last Result
34 19% 89%  
35 30% 70%  
36 23% 39% Median
37 12% 16%  
38 4% 5%  
39 0.9% 1.1%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 4% 98.8% Majority
33 11% 95%  
34 21% 85%  
35 34% 64%  
36 18% 30% Median
37 10% 12%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 100%  
28 1.5% 99.6%  
29 9% 98%  
30 18% 90%  
31 30% 71%  
32 22% 41% Median, Majority
33 14% 19%  
34 4% 5%  
35 1.1% 1.3%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100% Last Result
27 3% 99.7%  
28 7% 97%  
29 18% 90%  
30 32% 72%  
31 25% 40% Median
32 11% 15% Majority
33 3% 4%  
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 4% 99.6%  
26 12% 95%  
27 19% 83% Last Result
28 37% 64% Median
29 18% 27%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.3% 0.4% Majority
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.4%  
26 14% 96%  
27 22% 82%  
28 34% 60% Median
29 18% 26%  
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0.3% 0.4% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 6% 99.0% Last Result
26 12% 93%  
27 25% 81%  
28 34% 56% Median
29 15% 22%  
30 6% 7%  
31 1.2% 1.5%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 9% 98%  
24 21% 88%  
25 29% 67%  
26 25% 38% Last Result, Median
27 10% 14%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.8%  
23 6% 98% Last Result
24 19% 93%  
25 30% 73% Median
26 27% 43%  
27 12% 16%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.6% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 2% 99.7%  
21 12% 97%  
22 24% 85%  
23 36% 61% Median
24 18% 25% Last Result
25 6% 8%  
26 1.5% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.7% 100%  
20 3% 99.3%  
21 14% 96%  
22 24% 82%  
23 36% 58% Median
24 16% 22%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.8% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100% Last Result
18 0.8% 99.9%  
19 7% 99.1%  
20 22% 92%  
21 34% 71%  
22 21% 37% Median
23 13% 16%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.9%  
18 7% 98.6%  
19 23% 91% Last Result
20 29% 68%  
21 27% 39% Median
22 9% 12%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.9%  
18 5% 98.6%  
19 21% 94%  
20 33% 73% Median
21 28% 39%  
22 9% 11%  
23 2% 3% Last Result
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.5% 99.6%  
16 3% 98%  
17 8% 95%  
18 23% 87%  
19 34% 64% Median
20 21% 30% Last Result
21 8% 9%  
22 1.1% 1.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 4% 99.8%  
16 14% 96%  
17 29% 81%  
18 33% 52% Last Result, Median
19 15% 20%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations