Opinion Poll by Gallup, 4–31 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.5% 24.5–26.5% 24.2–26.8% 24.0–27.1% 23.5–27.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 16.9% 16.1–17.8% 15.8–18.1% 15.6–18.3% 15.2–18.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.1% 15.3–17.0% 15.0–17.3% 14.8–17.5% 14.5–17.9%
Píratar 9.2% 10.7% 10.0–11.5% 9.8–11.7% 9.7–11.9% 9.3–12.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.5% 8.9–10.2% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.6% 8.2–11.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.3% 6.7–7.9% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.8% 6.2–7.4% 6.1–7.6% 6.0–7.8% 5.7–8.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.5% 5.0–6.1% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–12
Píratar 6 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Viðreisn 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 3–4 0–4 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.2% 100%  
16 15% 98.8% Last Result
17 37% 84% Median
18 27% 47%  
19 20% 20%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 25% 99.9%  
11 57% 75% Last Result, Median
12 16% 17%  
13 1.1% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 59% 98% Median
11 37% 39%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 40% 99.9% Last Result
7 54% 60% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 16% 100%  
6 67% 84% Median
7 11% 17%  
8 6% 6% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 50% 99.7% Last Result, Median
5 49% 49%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 87% 97% Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 77% 91% Median
4 14% 14% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 34 100% 33–36 33–36 33–36 32–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 32 79% 31–34 31–34 31–35 30–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 31 46% 30–33 30–34 30–34 29–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 27 0% 26–29 26–29 26–30 25–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 28 0.2% 27–29 26–30 26–30 26–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0% 26–29 26–29 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 28 0% 27–30 27–30 26–30 26–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0% 26–29 26–29 26–29 26–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 25 0% 24–27 24–27 24–28 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 22–25 22–25 22–25 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–23 20–24 20–24 19–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–22 20–23 20–23 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 21 0% 20–22 20–23 20–23 20–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 18 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 16–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–17 14–17

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.8% 100% Majority
33 13% 99.2%  
34 36% 86% Median
35 35% 50% Last Result
36 13% 14%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 2% 100%  
31 19% 98%  
32 30% 79% Median, Majority
33 34% 50%  
34 11% 16%  
35 4% 5%  
36 1.0% 1.0%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.0% 100%  
30 21% 99.0%  
31 32% 78% Median
32 28% 46% Majority
33 13% 18% Last Result
34 5% 5%  
35 0.5% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 1.3% 100%  
26 20% 98.7% Last Result
27 34% 78% Median
28 28% 44%  
29 12% 16%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.1% 100%  
26 8% 99.9%  
27 25% 92%  
28 37% 67% Median
29 23% 30%  
30 5% 7%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.8% 100%  
26 10% 99.2%  
27 25% 90% Median
28 33% 65%  
29 28% 32%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 3% 99.8%  
27 15% 97% Last Result
28 34% 82% Median
29 32% 48%  
30 15% 16%  
31 0.8% 0.8%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 11% 99.5%  
27 34% 88% Median
28 34% 54%  
29 19% 21%  
30 1.4% 1.4%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 16% 99.6%  
25 40% 83% Last Result, Median
26 33% 44%  
27 8% 11%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 13% 99.4%  
23 34% 87% Median
24 34% 53% Last Result
25 18% 19%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 7% 99.3% Last Result
21 27% 92% Median
22 30% 65%  
23 26% 34%  
24 8% 8%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 30% 98%  
21 35% 68% Median
22 24% 33%  
23 8% 9%  
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.1% 100%  
20 14% 98.9%  
21 36% 85% Median
22 27% 49%  
23 21% 22% Last Result
24 0.9% 0.9%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.4% 100%  
20 17% 99.6%  
21 42% 83% Median
22 33% 41%  
23 7% 8%  
24 1.4% 1.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 30% 98%  
17 39% 68% Median
18 22% 29%  
19 6% 6% Last Result
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 11% 100%  
17 36% 89% Last Result
18 36% 52% Median
19 14% 17%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 25% 99.7%  
15 52% 75% Median
16 20% 23%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations