Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–28 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.5% 22.5–24.5% 22.2–24.8% 22.0–25.0% 21.6–25.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 16.6% 15.7–17.5% 15.5–17.7% 15.3–17.9% 14.9–18.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.3% 14.5–16.1% 14.2–16.4% 14.1–16.6% 13.7–17.0%
Píratar 9.2% 11.9% 11.2–12.7% 11.0–12.9% 10.8–13.1% 10.5–13.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.3% 8.7–10.0% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.7%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.4% 7.6–9.6% 7.4–10.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 6.8% 6.2–7.4% 6.1–7.6% 6.0–7.7% 5.7–8.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.9% 5.4–6.5% 5.2–6.6% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–16 15–17 15–17 14–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 11 10–11 10–12 10–12 10–12
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Viðreisn 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 45% 98%  
16 46% 53% Last Result, Median
17 6% 6%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 25% 99.9%  
11 68% 75% Last Result, Median
12 7% 7%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.1% 100%  
9 8% 99.9%  
10 76% 92% Median
11 15% 15%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 41% 99.8%  
8 56% 59% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 15% 100%  
6 77% 85% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 62% 99.4% Median
6 37% 37%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.4% 100%  
4 82% 98.6% Last Result, Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 49% 98.9%  
4 50% 50% Last Result, Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 82% 31–33 31–33 31–34 30–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 86% 31–33 31–34 31–34 30–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 33 93% 32–34 31–34 31–34 31–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 29 0% 28–29 27–30 27–30 27–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–28 25–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 27 0% 26–28 26–28 25–28 25–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–28 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–27 25–28 25–28 25–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 25–27 25–27 24–27 24–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 21–22 20–23 20–23 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 19–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 19–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 18–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 18 0% 18–19 17–19 17–20 17–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 16–18 16–18 15–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–18

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 2% 100%  
31 16% 98%  
32 46% 82% Median, Majority
33 32% 36% Last Result
34 4% 4%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.6% 100%  
31 13% 99.4%  
32 44% 86% Majority
33 36% 42% Median
34 5% 6%  
35 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 100%  
31 6% 99.6%  
32 35% 93% Majority
33 45% 58% Median
34 12% 13%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 100%  
27 8% 99.6%  
28 40% 92%  
29 45% 52% Median
30 6% 6%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 2% 100%  
26 29% 98%  
27 50% 69% Median
28 17% 19%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 3% 99.9%  
26 28% 96% Last Result
27 52% 68% Median
28 15% 17%  
29 1.5% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.9% 100%  
25 13% 99.1% Last Result
26 50% 86% Median
27 32% 36%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 11% 99.8%  
26 44% 89%  
27 38% 44% Last Result, Median
28 5% 6%  
29 0.7% 0.7%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100% Last Result
24 4% 99.9%  
25 41% 96%  
26 43% 55% Median
27 11% 12%  
28 1.0% 1.0%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.4% 100%  
21 19% 98.6%  
22 49% 80% Median
23 29% 31%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 6% 99.9%  
21 45% 94%  
22 42% 49% Median
23 7% 7%  
24 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.3% 100%  
20 27% 98.7%  
21 51% 72% Median
22 20% 22%  
23 1.3% 1.5% Last Result
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 2% 100%  
20 23% 98%  
21 60% 75% Median
22 14% 15%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 2% 100%  
19 35% 98%  
20 51% 63% Last Result, Median
21 10% 11%  
22 1.0% 1.0%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 8% 100% Last Result
18 45% 92%  
19 43% 47% Median
20 4% 4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 3% 100%  
16 31% 97%  
17 55% 67% Median
18 10% 11%  
19 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 14% 99.9%  
16 55% 86% Median
17 29% 31%  
18 2% 2% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations