Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–28 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.5% |
22.5–24.5% |
22.2–24.8% |
22.0–25.0% |
21.6–25.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
16.6% |
15.7–17.5% |
15.5–17.7% |
15.3–17.9% |
14.9–18.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.3% |
14.5–16.1% |
14.2–16.4% |
14.1–16.6% |
13.7–17.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.9% |
11.2–12.7% |
11.0–12.9% |
10.8–13.1% |
10.5–13.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.3% |
8.7–10.0% |
8.5–10.2% |
8.3–10.4% |
8.0–10.7% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.6% |
8.0–9.3% |
7.8–9.4% |
7.6–9.6% |
7.4–10.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
6.8% |
6.2–7.4% |
6.1–7.6% |
6.0–7.7% |
5.7–8.0% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.9% |
5.4–6.5% |
5.2–6.6% |
5.1–6.8% |
4.9–7.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
2% |
100% |
|
15 |
45% |
98% |
|
16 |
46% |
53% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
6% |
6% |
|
18 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
25% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
68% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
12 |
7% |
7% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
76% |
92% |
Median |
11 |
15% |
15% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
41% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
56% |
59% |
Median |
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
15% |
100% |
|
6 |
77% |
85% |
Median |
7 |
8% |
8% |
|
8 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
5 |
62% |
99.4% |
Median |
6 |
37% |
37% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
4 |
82% |
98.6% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
17% |
17% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
3 |
49% |
98.9% |
|
4 |
50% |
50% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
82% |
31–33 |
31–33 |
31–34 |
30–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
86% |
31–33 |
31–34 |
31–34 |
30–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
93% |
32–34 |
31–34 |
31–34 |
31–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
29 |
0% |
28–29 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–27 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–27 |
24–27 |
24–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
21–22 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–22 |
19–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–22 |
19–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
18–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
18 |
0% |
18–19 |
17–19 |
17–20 |
17–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–18 |
15–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
2% |
100% |
|
31 |
16% |
98% |
|
32 |
46% |
82% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
32% |
36% |
Last Result |
34 |
4% |
4% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
31 |
13% |
99.4% |
|
32 |
44% |
86% |
Majority |
33 |
36% |
42% |
Median |
34 |
5% |
6% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
31 |
6% |
99.6% |
|
32 |
35% |
93% |
Majority |
33 |
45% |
58% |
Median |
34 |
12% |
13% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
27 |
8% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
40% |
92% |
|
29 |
45% |
52% |
Median |
30 |
6% |
6% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
2% |
100% |
|
26 |
29% |
98% |
|
27 |
50% |
69% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
19% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
28% |
96% |
Last Result |
27 |
52% |
68% |
Median |
28 |
15% |
17% |
|
29 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
25 |
13% |
99.1% |
Last Result |
26 |
50% |
86% |
Median |
27 |
32% |
36% |
|
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
11% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
44% |
89% |
|
27 |
38% |
44% |
Last Result, Median |
28 |
5% |
6% |
|
29 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
41% |
96% |
|
26 |
43% |
55% |
Median |
27 |
11% |
12% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
19% |
98.6% |
|
22 |
49% |
80% |
Median |
23 |
29% |
31% |
|
24 |
3% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
45% |
94% |
|
22 |
42% |
49% |
Median |
23 |
7% |
7% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
27% |
98.7% |
|
21 |
51% |
72% |
Median |
22 |
20% |
22% |
|
23 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
2% |
100% |
|
20 |
23% |
98% |
|
21 |
60% |
75% |
Median |
22 |
14% |
15% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
2% |
100% |
|
19 |
35% |
98% |
|
20 |
51% |
63% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
10% |
11% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
45% |
92% |
|
19 |
43% |
47% |
Median |
20 |
4% |
4% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
3% |
100% |
|
16 |
31% |
97% |
|
17 |
55% |
67% |
Median |
18 |
10% |
11% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
14% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
55% |
86% |
Median |
17 |
29% |
31% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–28 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 3077
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.85%