Opinion Poll by MMR, 19 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
25.3% |
23.5–27.2% |
23.0–27.7% |
22.6–28.2% |
21.7–29.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.0% |
14.6–17.7% |
14.2–18.2% |
13.8–18.6% |
13.1–19.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
14.8% |
13.4–16.4% |
13.0–16.9% |
12.7–17.3% |
12.0–18.1% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.2% |
11.8–14.7% |
11.5–15.2% |
11.1–15.5% |
10.5–16.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.7% |
9.4–12.1% |
9.1–12.5% |
8.8–12.8% |
8.3–13.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.3% |
7.6–10.7% |
7.3–11.1% |
6.8–11.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.2% |
4.9–7.5% |
4.7–7.8% |
4.3–8.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.6% |
2.9–4.6% |
2.8–4.8% |
2.6–5.1% |
2.3–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
25% |
95% |
Last Result |
17 |
35% |
70% |
Median |
18 |
26% |
35% |
|
19 |
8% |
9% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
9 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
10 |
33% |
92% |
|
11 |
40% |
59% |
Median |
12 |
17% |
20% |
|
13 |
2% |
2% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
27% |
95% |
|
10 |
47% |
68% |
Median |
11 |
19% |
21% |
Last Result |
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
38% |
96% |
|
9 |
43% |
58% |
Median |
10 |
13% |
15% |
|
11 |
2% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
23% |
98% |
|
7 |
52% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
16% |
23% |
|
9 |
6% |
7% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
26% |
98% |
|
6 |
53% |
72% |
Median |
7 |
18% |
19% |
|
8 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
94% |
|
2 |
0% |
94% |
|
3 |
25% |
94% |
|
4 |
59% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
9% |
9% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
2% |
|
3 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
34 |
94% |
32–35 |
31–36 |
31–36 |
30–37 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
33 |
87% |
31–34 |
31–35 |
30–36 |
30–37 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
86% |
31–35 |
31–35 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
13% |
28–32 |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
29 |
5% |
28–31 |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
28 |
0.4% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
28 |
0.3% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
27 |
0.1% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–17 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
5% |
99.2% |
|
32 |
15% |
94% |
Majority |
33 |
23% |
79% |
Last Result |
34 |
38% |
56% |
Median |
35 |
10% |
18% |
|
36 |
6% |
7% |
|
37 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
30 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
31 |
10% |
97% |
|
32 |
28% |
87% |
Majority |
33 |
27% |
59% |
Median |
34 |
23% |
33% |
|
35 |
7% |
10% |
Last Result |
36 |
2% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
31 |
10% |
96% |
|
32 |
24% |
86% |
Majority |
33 |
29% |
63% |
|
34 |
23% |
34% |
Median |
35 |
9% |
11% |
|
36 |
2% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
10% |
98% |
|
29 |
23% |
88% |
|
30 |
28% |
65% |
Median |
31 |
23% |
36% |
Last Result |
32 |
10% |
13% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
6% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
20% |
93% |
|
29 |
30% |
73% |
|
30 |
26% |
44% |
Median |
31 |
13% |
17% |
|
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
4% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
26 |
13% |
95% |
|
27 |
26% |
82% |
|
28 |
33% |
56% |
Median |
29 |
15% |
23% |
|
30 |
5% |
7% |
|
31 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
9% |
97% |
|
27 |
28% |
88% |
|
28 |
31% |
60% |
Median |
29 |
20% |
29% |
|
30 |
7% |
9% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
9% |
98.5% |
|
26 |
26% |
90% |
|
27 |
32% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
28 |
20% |
32% |
|
29 |
10% |
12% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
25 |
17% |
95% |
|
26 |
27% |
79% |
Last Result |
27 |
31% |
52% |
Median |
28 |
15% |
21% |
|
29 |
4% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
7% |
99.1% |
|
23 |
24% |
92% |
Last Result |
24 |
31% |
68% |
Median |
25 |
25% |
37% |
|
26 |
9% |
13% |
|
27 |
3% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
10% |
98.6% |
|
22 |
23% |
89% |
|
23 |
30% |
65% |
Median |
24 |
25% |
35% |
Last Result |
25 |
8% |
10% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
10% |
97% |
|
22 |
24% |
86% |
|
23 |
36% |
62% |
Median |
24 |
17% |
26% |
|
25 |
7% |
8% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
19 |
15% |
98% |
|
20 |
28% |
83% |
|
21 |
34% |
55% |
Median |
22 |
15% |
20% |
|
23 |
5% |
6% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
18 |
4% |
98% |
|
19 |
8% |
94% |
|
20 |
29% |
86% |
Last Result |
21 |
31% |
58% |
Median |
22 |
21% |
27% |
|
23 |
5% |
6% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
13% |
97% |
Last Result |
18 |
33% |
85% |
|
19 |
31% |
52% |
Median |
20 |
16% |
20% |
|
21 |
4% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
9% |
98.7% |
|
16 |
24% |
90% |
|
17 |
39% |
66% |
Median |
18 |
19% |
27% |
Last Result |
19 |
7% |
8% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
7% |
98% |
|
15 |
29% |
91% |
|
16 |
38% |
61% |
Median |
17 |
18% |
23% |
|
18 |
4% |
5% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.26%