Opinion Poll by MMR, 19 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.3% 23.5–27.2% 23.0–27.7% 22.6–28.2% 21.7–29.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.7% 14.2–18.2% 13.8–18.6% 13.1–19.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.8% 13.4–16.4% 13.0–16.9% 12.7–17.3% 12.0–18.1%
Píratar 9.2% 13.2% 11.8–14.7% 11.5–15.2% 11.1–15.5% 10.5–16.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.7% 9.4–12.1% 9.1–12.5% 8.8–12.8% 8.3–13.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.7% 7.3–11.1% 6.8–11.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.1% 2.3–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–18 15–19 15–19 15–20
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–12
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Viðreisn 4 4 3–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 5% 99.6%  
16 25% 95% Last Result
17 35% 70% Median
18 26% 35%  
19 8% 9%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.3% 100%  
9 7% 99.6%  
10 33% 92%  
11 40% 59% Median
12 17% 20%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 5% 99.9%  
9 27% 95%  
10 47% 68% Median
11 19% 21% Last Result
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 4% 99.8%  
8 38% 96%  
9 43% 58% Median
10 13% 15%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 23% 98%  
7 52% 75% Last Result, Median
8 16% 23%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 26% 98%  
6 53% 72% Median
7 18% 19%  
8 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 25% 94%  
4 59% 68% Last Result, Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 1.5% 2%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 34 94% 32–35 31–36 31–36 30–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 33 87% 31–34 31–35 30–36 30–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 33 86% 31–35 31–35 30–35 29–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 13% 28–32 28–32 28–33 27–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 29 5% 28–31 27–31 27–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 28 0.4% 26–29 26–30 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0.3% 26–29 26–30 25–30 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 27 0.1% 25–29 25–29 25–29 24–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 27 0% 25–28 25–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–25 20–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 21 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 19 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 17 0% 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–19

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 5% 99.2%  
32 15% 94% Majority
33 23% 79% Last Result
34 38% 56% Median
35 10% 18%  
36 6% 7%  
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 3% 99.6%  
31 10% 97%  
32 28% 87% Majority
33 27% 59% Median
34 23% 33%  
35 7% 10% Last Result
36 2% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.5%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 0.7% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.2%  
31 10% 96%  
32 24% 86% Majority
33 29% 63%  
34 23% 34% Median
35 9% 11%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 10% 98%  
29 23% 88%  
30 28% 65% Median
31 23% 36% Last Result
32 10% 13% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.9%  
27 6% 99.0%  
28 20% 93%  
29 30% 73%  
30 26% 44% Median
31 13% 17%  
32 4% 5% Majority
33 0.8% 1.0%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 4% 99.4% Last Result
26 13% 95%  
27 26% 82%  
28 33% 56% Median
29 15% 23%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.5% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.2% 100%  
25 3% 99.7%  
26 9% 97%  
27 28% 88%  
28 31% 60% Median
29 20% 29%  
30 7% 9%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.8%  
25 9% 98.5%  
26 26% 90%  
27 32% 64% Last Result, Median
28 20% 32%  
29 10% 12%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.4%  
25 17% 95%  
26 27% 79% Last Result
27 31% 52% Median
28 15% 21%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.7% 0.8%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.9%  
22 7% 99.1%  
23 24% 92% Last Result
24 31% 68% Median
25 25% 37%  
26 9% 13%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.9%  
21 10% 98.6%  
22 23% 89%  
23 30% 65% Median
24 25% 35% Last Result
25 8% 10%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 3% 99.8%  
21 10% 97%  
22 24% 86%  
23 36% 62% Median
24 17% 26%  
25 7% 8%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7% Last Result
19 15% 98%  
20 28% 83%  
21 34% 55% Median
22 15% 20%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.6%  
18 4% 98%  
19 8% 94%  
20 29% 86% Last Result
21 31% 58% Median
22 21% 27%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.9% 0.9%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 13% 97% Last Result
18 33% 85%  
19 31% 52% Median
20 16% 20%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.3% 100%  
15 9% 98.7%  
16 24% 90%  
17 39% 66% Median
18 19% 27% Last Result
19 7% 8%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 7% 98%  
15 29% 91%  
16 38% 61% Median
17 18% 23%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations