Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–26 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.5% |
23.5–25.5% |
23.2–25.8% |
23.0–26.0% |
22.6–26.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.5% |
15.7–17.4% |
15.4–17.6% |
15.2–17.8% |
14.8–18.3% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.9% |
13.1–14.7% |
12.9–15.0% |
12.7–15.2% |
12.4–15.6% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.5% |
11.8–13.3% |
11.6–13.5% |
11.4–13.7% |
11.0–14.1% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.2% |
8.6–9.9% |
8.4–10.1% |
8.2–10.3% |
7.9–10.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.7% |
8.1–9.4% |
7.9–9.6% |
7.8–9.8% |
7.5–10.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
8.4% |
7.8–9.1% |
7.6–9.3% |
7.5–9.4% |
7.2–9.8% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.9% |
4.4–5.4% |
4.3–5.6% |
4.2–5.7% |
4.0–6.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
39% |
92% |
Last Result |
17 |
46% |
53% |
Median |
18 |
6% |
6% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
20% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
63% |
80% |
Median |
12 |
17% |
17% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
8% |
100% |
|
9 |
59% |
92% |
Median |
10 |
33% |
33% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
7% |
100% |
|
8 |
64% |
93% |
Median |
9 |
29% |
29% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
17% |
100% |
|
6 |
75% |
83% |
Median |
7 |
8% |
8% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
48% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
50% |
52% |
Median |
7 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
62% |
99.4% |
Median |
6 |
37% |
38% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
60% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
40% |
|
2 |
0% |
40% |
|
3 |
40% |
40% |
|
4 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
34 |
99.1% |
32–35 |
32–36 |
32–36 |
31–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
57% |
30–33 |
30–33 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
58% |
30–33 |
30–33 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
28 |
0% |
27–30 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
26–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
28 |
0% |
26–29 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
25–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
24–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–23 |
20–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
14–17 |
13–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
32 |
15% |
99.1% |
Majority |
33 |
20% |
84% |
Median |
34 |
35% |
64% |
|
35 |
22% |
29% |
|
36 |
6% |
6% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
30 |
15% |
99.2% |
|
31 |
27% |
84% |
|
32 |
33% |
57% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
21% |
24% |
Last Result |
34 |
3% |
3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
30 |
11% |
99.4% |
|
31 |
30% |
88% |
|
32 |
38% |
58% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
18% |
20% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
100% |
|
27 |
18% |
98% |
|
28 |
32% |
80% |
Median |
29 |
30% |
48% |
|
30 |
17% |
18% |
|
31 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
26 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
27 |
22% |
91% |
|
28 |
36% |
69% |
|
29 |
28% |
33% |
Median |
30 |
4% |
5% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
17% |
98.6% |
|
27 |
28% |
82% |
|
28 |
40% |
54% |
Median |
29 |
12% |
13% |
|
30 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
24% |
97% |
|
26 |
39% |
73% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
26% |
34% |
|
28 |
8% |
8% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
24 |
10% |
99.5% |
|
25 |
28% |
89% |
Last Result |
26 |
38% |
61% |
Median |
27 |
21% |
23% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
33% |
94% |
|
26 |
40% |
61% |
Median |
27 |
19% |
21% |
Last Result |
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
15% |
98% |
|
22 |
30% |
83% |
|
23 |
44% |
53% |
Median |
24 |
8% |
9% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
25% |
97% |
|
22 |
41% |
72% |
|
23 |
27% |
31% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
4% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
5% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
21 |
27% |
95% |
|
22 |
45% |
68% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
24% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
31% |
92% |
|
21 |
43% |
60% |
Median |
22 |
16% |
17% |
|
23 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
1.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
18% |
98.6% |
|
20 |
43% |
80% |
Median |
21 |
30% |
37% |
|
22 |
7% |
7% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
10% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
43% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
36% |
47% |
|
19 |
11% |
11% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
14 |
13% |
99.3% |
|
15 |
58% |
86% |
Median |
16 |
26% |
29% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
4% |
100% |
|
14 |
30% |
96% |
|
15 |
48% |
65% |
Median |
16 |
17% |
17% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–26 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 3091
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.08%