Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–26 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.5% 23.5–25.5% 23.2–25.8% 23.0–26.0% 22.6–26.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.5% 15.7–17.4% 15.4–17.6% 15.2–17.8% 14.8–18.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.9% 13.1–14.7% 12.9–15.0% 12.7–15.2% 12.4–15.6%
Píratar 9.2% 12.5% 11.8–13.3% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.7% 11.0–14.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.2% 8.6–9.9% 8.4–10.1% 8.2–10.3% 7.9–10.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.7% 8.1–9.4% 7.9–9.6% 7.8–9.8% 7.5–10.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.4% 7.8–9.1% 7.6–9.3% 7.5–9.4% 7.2–9.8%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.9% 4.4–5.4% 4.3–5.6% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–17 15–18 15–18 15–18
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 9–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Píratar 6 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Viðreisn 4 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 8% 99.9%  
16 39% 92% Last Result
17 46% 53% Median
18 6% 6%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 20% 99.8%  
11 63% 80% Median
12 17% 17%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 8% 100%  
9 59% 92% Median
10 33% 33%  
11 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 7% 100%  
8 64% 93% Median
9 29% 29%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 17% 100%  
6 75% 83% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 48% 99.8%  
6 50% 52% Median
7 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100% Last Result
5 62% 99.4% Median
6 37% 38%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 0% 40%  
2 0% 40%  
3 40% 40%  
4 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 34 99.1% 32–35 32–36 32–36 31–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 57% 30–33 30–33 30–34 29–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 58% 30–33 30–33 30–34 29–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 28 0% 27–30 27–30 27–30 26–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0% 27–29 26–29 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0% 26–29 26–29 26–29 25–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–27 25–28 24–28 24–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 24–27 24–27 24–27 23–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–27 24–27 24–27 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–23 21–23 20–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–23 21–23 20–23 20–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–22 19–22 19–22 19–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–21 19–22 19–22 18–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 16–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–17 13–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–17

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.8% 100%  
32 15% 99.1% Majority
33 20% 84% Median
34 35% 64%  
35 22% 29%  
36 6% 6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.8% 100%  
30 15% 99.2%  
31 27% 84%  
32 33% 57% Median, Majority
33 21% 24% Last Result
34 3% 3%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.6% 100%  
30 11% 99.4%  
31 30% 88%  
32 38% 58% Median, Majority
33 18% 20%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 2% 100%  
27 18% 98%  
28 32% 80% Median
29 30% 48%  
30 17% 18%  
31 0.9% 0.9%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 1.0% 100%  
26 8% 99.0%  
27 22% 91%  
28 36% 69%  
29 28% 33% Median
30 4% 5%  
31 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 1.4% 100%  
26 17% 98.6%  
27 28% 82%  
28 40% 54% Median
29 12% 13%  
30 1.3% 1.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 24% 97%  
26 39% 73% Last Result, Median
27 26% 34%  
28 8% 8%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.5% 100%  
24 10% 99.5%  
25 28% 89% Last Result
26 38% 61% Median
27 21% 23%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 6% 99.8%  
25 33% 94%  
26 40% 61% Median
27 19% 21% Last Result
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 15% 98%  
22 30% 83%  
23 44% 53% Median
24 8% 9% Last Result
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 25% 97%  
22 41% 72%  
23 27% 31% Last Result, Median
24 4% 4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 5% 99.8% Last Result
21 27% 95%  
22 45% 68% Median
23 22% 24%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 8% 99.7%  
20 31% 92%  
21 43% 60% Median
22 16% 17%  
23 1.2% 1.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.3% 100% Last Result
19 18% 98.6%  
20 43% 80% Median
21 30% 37%  
22 7% 7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 10% 99.8%  
17 43% 90% Last Result, Median
18 36% 47%  
19 11% 11%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.7% 100%  
14 13% 99.3%  
15 58% 86% Median
16 26% 29%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 4% 100%  
14 30% 96%  
15 48% 65% Median
16 17% 17%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations