Opinion Poll by MMR, 13–19 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.0% 22.2–25.8% 21.7–26.4% 21.3–26.8% 20.5–27.8%
Píratar 9.2% 15.3% 13.8–16.9% 13.4–17.4% 13.1–17.8% 12.4–18.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.3% 12.9–15.9% 12.5–16.3% 12.2–16.7% 11.5–17.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.6% 12.3–15.2% 11.9–15.6% 11.6–16.0% 10.9–16.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.5% 7.1–10.8% 6.6–11.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.3% 6.2–8.5% 6.0–8.8% 5.7–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.6% 5.5–8.9% 5.1–9.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.5% 5.4–8.8% 5.0–9.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Píratar 6 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6
Viðreisn 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 1–6

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 27% 97%  
16 39% 70% Last Result, Median
17 18% 31%  
18 12% 13%  
19 0.9% 1.1%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 34% 97%  
10 40% 63% Median
11 20% 23%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.9% 100%  
8 10% 99.0%  
9 18% 89%  
10 65% 71% Median
11 6% 6% Last Result
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 5% 99.9% Last Result
8 32% 95%  
9 40% 63% Median
10 20% 22%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100%  
5 45% 95%  
6 42% 50% Median
7 8% 8% Last Result
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 3% 99.8%  
4 53% 96% Median
5 38% 44%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 7% 99.6%  
4 57% 93% Last Result, Median
5 32% 35%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 10% 99.5%  
4 56% 90% Last Result, Median
5 31% 33%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 28 33 82% 31–34 31–35 30–35 29–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 16% 29–32 28–32 28–33 27–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 28 0.6% 27–30 27–30 26–31 25–32
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 24 28 0.5% 27–30 26–30 26–31 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–24 21–25 21–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 20–23 20–24 20–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 18–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 18–21 18–21 17–22 17–22
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 20 0% 18–21 18–21 17–22 17–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 19 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–16 14–17 13–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–15 12–15 12–16 11–16

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.7% 100%  
30 4% 99.2%  
31 13% 95%  
32 27% 82% Majority
33 31% 55% Median
34 18% 24%  
35 6% 6%  
36 0.7% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.5% 99.8%  
28 5% 98%  
29 19% 93%  
30 36% 75% Median
31 23% 38%  
32 12% 16% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.3%  
27 13% 96%  
28 35% 83%  
29 31% 48% Median
30 13% 17%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.6% 0.6% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100% Last Result
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 6% 98.8%  
27 17% 93%  
28 30% 76%  
29 30% 46% Median
30 13% 16%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.4% 0.5% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.7% 100%  
24 8% 99.2%  
25 24% 91%  
26 29% 67% Median
27 24% 38%  
28 10% 13%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 3% 99.6%  
24 10% 97%  
25 25% 86%  
26 37% 61% Median
27 16% 24% Last Result
28 8% 8%  
29 0.6% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 9% 98% Last Result
24 23% 89%  
25 42% 67% Median
26 11% 25%  
27 13% 14%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.7%  
22 8% 98%  
23 20% 90%  
24 38% 70%  
25 24% 32% Last Result, Median
26 8% 9%  
27 1.2% 1.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 7% 98%  
22 24% 91%  
23 39% 67% Median
24 20% 28%  
25 7% 8%  
26 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 13% 98%  
21 34% 85%  
22 26% 51% Median
23 18% 25% Last Result
24 6% 7%  
25 0.8% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 15% 98%  
20 37% 83% Median
21 23% 47%  
22 18% 24%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 4% 99.5%  
19 15% 96%  
20 37% 81% Last Result, Median
21 28% 44%  
22 12% 16%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 10% 97%  
19 30% 87%  
20 36% 57% Median
21 18% 21%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 3% 99.6% Last Result
18 13% 96%  
19 32% 83%  
20 31% 51% Median
21 17% 19%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 3% 99.6%  
17 13% 96%  
18 31% 83% Last Result
19 38% 52% Median
20 11% 13%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 4% 99.4%  
14 16% 95%  
15 40% 79%  
16 31% 38% Median
17 7% 8%  
18 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 5% 99.3%  
13 16% 95%  
14 46% 79% Median
15 29% 33%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations