Opinion Poll by MMR, 13–19 April 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.0% |
22.2–25.8% |
21.7–26.4% |
21.3–26.8% |
20.5–27.8% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
15.3% |
13.8–16.9% |
13.4–17.4% |
13.1–17.8% |
12.4–18.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
14.3% |
12.9–15.9% |
12.5–16.3% |
12.2–16.7% |
11.5–17.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.6% |
12.3–15.2% |
11.9–15.6% |
11.6–16.0% |
10.9–16.8% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.8% |
7.7–10.1% |
7.4–10.5% |
7.1–10.8% |
6.6–11.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.3% |
6.2–8.5% |
6.0–8.8% |
5.7–9.1% |
5.3–9.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.2% |
5.8–8.6% |
5.5–8.9% |
5.1–9.5% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.9% |
5.9–8.1% |
5.7–8.5% |
5.4–8.8% |
5.0–9.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
15 |
27% |
97% |
|
16 |
39% |
70% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
18% |
31% |
|
18 |
12% |
13% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
34% |
97% |
|
10 |
40% |
63% |
Median |
11 |
20% |
23% |
|
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
8 |
10% |
99.0% |
|
9 |
18% |
89% |
|
10 |
65% |
71% |
Median |
11 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
12 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
5% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
8 |
32% |
95% |
|
9 |
40% |
63% |
Median |
10 |
20% |
22% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
5% |
100% |
|
5 |
45% |
95% |
|
6 |
42% |
50% |
Median |
7 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
53% |
96% |
Median |
5 |
38% |
44% |
|
6 |
6% |
6% |
|
7 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
4 |
57% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
32% |
35% |
|
6 |
3% |
3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
3 |
10% |
99.5% |
|
4 |
56% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
31% |
33% |
|
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
82% |
31–34 |
31–35 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
30 |
16% |
29–32 |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–33 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
28 |
0.6% |
27–30 |
27–30 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
24 |
28 |
0.5% |
27–30 |
26–30 |
26–31 |
25–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–17 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
12–15 |
12–16 |
11–16 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
30 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
31 |
13% |
95% |
|
32 |
27% |
82% |
Majority |
33 |
31% |
55% |
Median |
34 |
18% |
24% |
|
35 |
6% |
6% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.5% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
5% |
98% |
|
29 |
19% |
93% |
|
30 |
36% |
75% |
Median |
31 |
23% |
38% |
|
32 |
12% |
16% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
27 |
13% |
96% |
|
28 |
35% |
83% |
|
29 |
31% |
48% |
Median |
30 |
13% |
17% |
|
31 |
3% |
4% |
|
32 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
27 |
17% |
93% |
|
28 |
30% |
76% |
|
29 |
30% |
46% |
Median |
30 |
13% |
16% |
|
31 |
3% |
4% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
24 |
8% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
24% |
91% |
|
26 |
29% |
67% |
Median |
27 |
24% |
38% |
|
28 |
10% |
13% |
|
29 |
3% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
10% |
97% |
|
25 |
25% |
86% |
|
26 |
37% |
61% |
Median |
27 |
16% |
24% |
Last Result |
28 |
8% |
8% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
9% |
98% |
Last Result |
24 |
23% |
89% |
|
25 |
42% |
67% |
Median |
26 |
11% |
25% |
|
27 |
13% |
14% |
|
28 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
8% |
98% |
|
23 |
20% |
90% |
|
24 |
38% |
70% |
|
25 |
24% |
32% |
Last Result, Median |
26 |
8% |
9% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
7% |
98% |
|
22 |
24% |
91% |
|
23 |
39% |
67% |
Median |
24 |
20% |
28% |
|
25 |
7% |
8% |
|
26 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
13% |
98% |
|
21 |
34% |
85% |
|
22 |
26% |
51% |
Median |
23 |
18% |
25% |
Last Result |
24 |
6% |
7% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
15% |
98% |
|
20 |
37% |
83% |
Median |
21 |
23% |
47% |
|
22 |
18% |
24% |
|
23 |
5% |
6% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
15% |
96% |
|
20 |
37% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
28% |
44% |
|
22 |
12% |
16% |
|
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
18 |
10% |
97% |
|
19 |
30% |
87% |
|
20 |
36% |
57% |
Median |
21 |
18% |
21% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
17 |
3% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
18 |
13% |
96% |
|
19 |
32% |
83% |
|
20 |
31% |
51% |
Median |
21 |
17% |
19% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
13% |
96% |
|
18 |
31% |
83% |
Last Result |
19 |
38% |
52% |
Median |
20 |
11% |
13% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
16% |
95% |
|
15 |
40% |
79% |
|
16 |
31% |
38% |
Median |
17 |
7% |
8% |
|
18 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
12 |
5% |
99.3% |
|
13 |
16% |
95% |
|
14 |
46% |
79% |
Median |
15 |
29% |
33% |
|
16 |
4% |
5% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–19 April 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.07%