Opinion Poll by Gallup, 27 March–29 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.3% 24.4–26.2% 24.2–26.5% 24.0–26.7% 23.5–27.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 17.7% 16.9–18.5% 16.7–18.7% 16.5–18.9% 16.2–19.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.1% 13.4–14.8% 13.2–15.1% 13.0–15.2% 12.7–15.6%
Píratar 9.2% 11.0% 10.4–11.7% 10.2–11.9% 10.0–12.0% 9.8–12.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.6% 9.0–10.2% 8.9–10.4% 8.7–10.6% 8.4–10.9%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.9% 7.4–8.5% 7.2–8.7% 7.1–8.8% 6.8–9.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.7% 7.2–8.3% 7.0–8.4% 6.9–8.6% 6.6–8.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.8–4.6% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.4–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 17–18 17–19 16–19 16–19
Samfylkingin 7 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 11–13
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–11
Píratar 6 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Viðreisn 4 5 5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 3% 100% Last Result
17 46% 97%  
18 45% 51% Median
19 6% 6%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 11% 100%  
12 74% 89% Median
13 15% 15%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 34% 99.6%  
10 64% 65% Median
11 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100% Last Result
7 65% 98% Median
8 33% 33%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 70% 99.3% Median
7 26% 29%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 84% 98% Median
6 14% 14%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 7% 100% Last Result
5 89% 93% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 34 99.8% 33–35 33–35 33–35 32–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 33 98.9% 32–34 32–34 32–35 31–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 34 99.7% 33–34 32–35 32–35 32–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 30 0.1% 29–30 28–31 28–31 28–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 0% 28–30 28–30 28–30 27–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 29 0% 28–30 28–30 28–30 27–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–28 25–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 27 0% 26–28 26–28 25–28 25–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–23 22–24 21–24 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 22–23 22–24 21–24 21–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 22 0% 21–22 21–23 20–23 20–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 20–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–15 14–16 14–16 13–16

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 2% 99.8% Majority
33 23% 98%  
34 51% 75% Median
35 24% 24%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.9% 99.8%  
32 15% 98.9% Majority
33 56% 84% Last Result, Median
34 26% 28%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 7% 99.7% Majority
33 40% 93%  
34 46% 53% Median
35 7% 7% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 100%  
28 5% 99.8%  
29 39% 94%  
30 46% 56% Median
31 9% 9%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.7% 100%  
28 25% 99.3%  
29 51% 75% Median
30 22% 24%  
31 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 21% 98%  
29 51% 77% Median
30 25% 25%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.2% 99.9% Last Result
27 19% 98.8%  
28 59% 80% Median
29 20% 21%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.7% 100%  
26 13% 99.2%  
27 53% 86% Last Result
28 30% 33% Median
29 2% 2%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 3% 99.8% Last Result
26 25% 97%  
27 57% 71% Median
28 14% 14%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.8% 100%  
23 33% 99.2%  
24 46% 66% Last Result, Median
25 19% 20%  
26 1.0% 1.0%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9%  
22 37% 97%  
23 50% 60% Last Result, Median
24 10% 10%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100% Last Result
21 4% 99.9%  
22 46% 96%  
23 43% 49% Median
24 7% 7%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 3% 100%  
21 30% 97%  
22 60% 67% Median
23 7% 7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 17% 99.5%  
21 58% 83% Median
22 22% 25%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 24% 99.4%  
17 54% 75% Last Result, Median
18 21% 21%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 21% 99.7%  
16 61% 79% Median
17 16% 17%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.9% 100%  
14 29% 99.1%  
15 61% 70% Median
16 9% 9%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations