Opinion Poll by Gallup, 27 March–29 April 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
25.3% |
24.4–26.2% |
24.2–26.5% |
24.0–26.7% |
23.5–27.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
17.7% |
16.9–18.5% |
16.7–18.7% |
16.5–18.9% |
16.2–19.3% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
14.1% |
13.4–14.8% |
13.2–15.1% |
13.0–15.2% |
12.7–15.6% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.0% |
10.4–11.7% |
10.2–11.9% |
10.0–12.0% |
9.8–12.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.6% |
9.0–10.2% |
8.9–10.4% |
8.7–10.6% |
8.4–10.9% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
7.9% |
7.4–8.5% |
7.2–8.7% |
7.1–8.8% |
6.8–9.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
7.7% |
7.2–8.3% |
7.0–8.4% |
6.9–8.6% |
6.6–8.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.2% |
3.8–4.6% |
3.7–4.8% |
3.6–4.9% |
3.4–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
17 |
46% |
97% |
|
18 |
45% |
51% |
Median |
19 |
6% |
6% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
11% |
100% |
|
12 |
74% |
89% |
Median |
13 |
15% |
15% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
9 |
34% |
99.6% |
|
10 |
64% |
65% |
Median |
11 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
65% |
98% |
Median |
8 |
33% |
33% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
6 |
70% |
99.3% |
Median |
7 |
26% |
29% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
84% |
98% |
Median |
6 |
14% |
14% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
89% |
93% |
Median |
6 |
4% |
4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
3 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
34 |
99.8% |
33–35 |
33–35 |
33–35 |
32–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
33 |
98.9% |
32–34 |
32–34 |
32–35 |
31–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
34 |
99.7% |
33–34 |
32–35 |
32–35 |
32–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
30 |
0.1% |
29–30 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
27–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
27–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
27–29 |
27–29 |
26–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–23 |
22–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
22–23 |
22–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
22 |
0% |
21–22 |
21–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–16 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
2% |
99.8% |
Majority |
33 |
23% |
98% |
|
34 |
51% |
75% |
Median |
35 |
24% |
24% |
|
36 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
15% |
98.9% |
Majority |
33 |
56% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
34 |
26% |
28% |
|
35 |
3% |
3% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
32 |
7% |
99.7% |
Majority |
33 |
40% |
93% |
|
34 |
46% |
53% |
Median |
35 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
39% |
94% |
|
30 |
46% |
56% |
Median |
31 |
9% |
9% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
28 |
25% |
99.3% |
|
29 |
51% |
75% |
Median |
30 |
22% |
24% |
|
31 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
21% |
98% |
|
29 |
51% |
77% |
Median |
30 |
25% |
25% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
27 |
19% |
98.8% |
|
28 |
59% |
80% |
Median |
29 |
20% |
21% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
26 |
13% |
99.2% |
|
27 |
53% |
86% |
Last Result |
28 |
30% |
33% |
Median |
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
26 |
25% |
97% |
|
27 |
57% |
71% |
Median |
28 |
14% |
14% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
23 |
33% |
99.2% |
|
24 |
46% |
66% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
19% |
20% |
|
26 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
37% |
97% |
|
23 |
50% |
60% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
10% |
10% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
46% |
96% |
|
23 |
43% |
49% |
Median |
24 |
7% |
7% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
100% |
|
21 |
30% |
97% |
|
22 |
60% |
67% |
Median |
23 |
7% |
7% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
20 |
17% |
99.5% |
|
21 |
58% |
83% |
Median |
22 |
22% |
25% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
16 |
24% |
99.4% |
|
17 |
54% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
21% |
21% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
21% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
61% |
79% |
Median |
17 |
16% |
17% |
|
18 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
14 |
29% |
99.1% |
|
15 |
61% |
70% |
Median |
16 |
9% |
9% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27 March–29 April 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 3809
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.58%