Opinion Poll by Gallup, 27 March–29 April 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 25.2% | 25.3% | 24.4–26.2% | 24.2–26.5% | 24.0–26.7% | 23.5–27.1% |
| Samfylkingin | 12.1% | 17.7% | 16.9–18.5% | 16.7–18.7% | 16.5–18.9% | 16.2–19.3% |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 16.9% | 14.1% | 13.4–14.8% | 13.2–15.1% | 13.0–15.2% | 12.7–15.6% |
| Píratar | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.4–11.7% | 10.2–11.9% | 10.0–12.0% | 9.8–12.4% |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.0–10.2% | 8.9–10.4% | 8.7–10.6% | 8.4–10.9% |
| Miðflokkurinn | 10.9% | 7.9% | 7.4–8.5% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.1–8.8% | 6.8–9.1% |
| Viðreisn | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.2–8.3% | 7.0–8.4% | 6.9–8.6% | 6.6–8.9% |
| Flokkur fólksins | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.8–4.6% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.6–4.9% | 3.4–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 16 | 18 | 17–18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 |
| Samfylkingin | 7 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 11 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–11 |
| Píratar | 6 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 8 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Miðflokkurinn | 7 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Viðreisn | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Flokkur fólksins | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 17 | 46% | 97% | |
| 18 | 45% | 51% | Median |
| 19 | 6% | 6% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 11% | 100% | |
| 12 | 74% | 89% | Median |
| 13 | 15% | 15% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 34% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 64% | 65% | Median |
| 11 | 0.8% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 65% | 98% | Median |
| 8 | 33% | 33% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 70% | 99.3% | Median |
| 7 | 26% | 29% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 84% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 14% | 14% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 89% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn | 28 | 34 | 99.8% | 33–35 | 33–35 | 33–35 | 32–35 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 33 | 33 | 98.9% | 32–34 | 32–34 | 32–35 | 31–35 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 35 | 34 | 99.7% | 33–34 | 32–35 | 32–35 | 32–35 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin | 23 | 30 | 0.1% | 29–30 | 28–31 | 28–31 | 28–31 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 31 | 29 | 0% | 28–30 | 28–30 | 28–30 | 27–31 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar | 24 | 29 | 0% | 28–30 | 28–30 | 28–30 | 27–31 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 26 | 28 | 0% | 27–29 | 27–29 | 27–29 | 26–30 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 27 | 27 | 0% | 26–28 | 26–28 | 26–28 | 25–29 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn | 25 | 27 | 0% | 26–28 | 26–28 | 25–28 | 25–28 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 24 | 24 | 0% | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 23 | 23 | 0% | 22–23 | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–24 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn | 20 | 22 | 0% | 22–23 | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–24 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 18 | 22 | 0% | 21–22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 26 | 21 | 0% | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar | 17 | 17 | 0% | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 19 | 16 | 0% | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn | 18 | 15 | 0% | 14–15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 33 | 23% | 98% | |
| 34 | 51% | 75% | Median |
| 35 | 24% | 24% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 15% | 98.9% | Majority |
| 33 | 56% | 84% | Last Result, Median |
| 34 | 26% | 28% | |
| 35 | 3% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 32 | 7% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 33 | 40% | 93% | |
| 34 | 46% | 53% | Median |
| 35 | 7% | 7% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 39% | 94% | |
| 30 | 46% | 56% | Median |
| 31 | 9% | 9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 28 | 25% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 51% | 75% | Median |
| 30 | 22% | 24% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 21% | 98% | |
| 29 | 51% | 77% | Median |
| 30 | 25% | 25% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 27 | 19% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 59% | 80% | Median |
| 29 | 20% | 21% | |
| 30 | 2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 26 | 13% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 53% | 86% | Last Result |
| 28 | 30% | 33% | Median |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 26 | 25% | 97% | |
| 27 | 57% | 71% | Median |
| 28 | 14% | 14% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 23 | 33% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 46% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 25 | 19% | 20% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 37% | 97% | |
| 23 | 50% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 24 | 10% | 10% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 46% | 96% | |
| 23 | 43% | 49% | Median |
| 24 | 7% | 7% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 30% | 97% | |
| 22 | 60% | 67% | Median |
| 23 | 7% | 7% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 20 | 17% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 58% | 83% | Median |
| 22 | 22% | 25% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 16 | 24% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 54% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 18 | 21% | 21% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 21% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 61% | 79% | Median |
| 17 | 16% | 17% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 14 | 29% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 61% | 70% | Median |
| 16 | 9% | 9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27 March–29 April 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 3809
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.58%