Opinion Poll by MMR, 2 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.5% 22.7–26.4% 22.3–26.9% 21.8–27.4% 21.0–28.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.7% 13.3–16.3% 12.9–16.8% 12.6–17.2% 11.9–18.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.7% 12.4–15.3% 12.0–15.7% 11.6–16.1% 11.0–16.9%
Píratar 9.2% 13.0% 11.6–14.5% 11.3–14.9% 10.9–15.3% 10.3–16.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.2% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.9% 6.6–10.2% 6.1–10.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Samfylkingin 7 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Viðreisn 4 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 24% 96%  
16 32% 72% Last Result, Median
17 19% 40%  
18 18% 21%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100% Last Result
8 11% 99.3%  
9 33% 88%  
10 43% 55% Median
11 11% 12%  
12 1.2% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 24% 96%  
9 34% 73% Median
10 36% 39%  
11 2% 2% Last Result
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100% Last Result
7 15% 99.4%  
8 45% 85% Median
9 32% 40%  
10 8% 8%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 6% 99.9%  
6 45% 94% Median
7 35% 49% Last Result
8 8% 14%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 15% 99.8%  
5 54% 85% Median
6 27% 30%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 38% 98% Last Result
5 51% 61% Median
6 9% 10%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 35% 87%  
4 49% 53% Last Result, Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 32 55% 30–34 29–34 29–35 28–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 30 23% 29–32 28–33 28–34 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 25% 29–33 28–33 28–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 2% 26–30 26–30 25–31 25–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0.1% 25–29 25–29 24–30 24–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 24–27 24–28 24–28 23–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 25 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–22 19–23 19–24 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 19–23 19–23 19–24 18–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 17–20 17–21 16–21 15–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–15 13–16 12–16 11–17

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
29 5% 99.1%  
30 16% 94%  
31 24% 79%  
32 27% 55% Median, Majority
33 17% 28%  
34 8% 11%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 7% 98%  
29 14% 91%  
30 31% 78% Median
31 24% 47%  
32 15% 23% Majority
33 5% 8% Last Result
34 3% 3%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 8% 99.1%  
29 14% 92%  
30 25% 78% Median
31 27% 53%  
32 15% 25% Majority
33 9% 10%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 10% 97%  
27 23% 88% Median
28 25% 65%  
29 22% 39%  
30 12% 17%  
31 3% 5% Last Result
32 1.4% 2% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 3% 99.7% Last Result
25 10% 97%  
26 24% 87%  
27 27% 63% Median
28 22% 36%  
29 11% 14%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 2% 99.6% Last Result
24 8% 98%  
25 32% 90%  
26 25% 58% Median
27 25% 32%  
28 6% 8%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 7% 98%  
24 19% 91%  
25 26% 71% Last Result, Median
26 27% 45%  
27 12% 18%  
28 6% 7%  
29 0.8% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 8% 99.1%  
24 15% 91%  
25 32% 76% Median
26 22% 44%  
27 12% 22% Last Result
28 9% 10%  
29 0.7% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.5%  
22 11% 95%  
23 23% 84%  
24 30% 61% Median
25 21% 31%  
26 8% 10% Last Result
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 12% 98%  
22 29% 86% Median
23 20% 58% Last Result
24 26% 37%  
25 7% 11%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 9% 98%  
20 25% 89% Median
21 35% 64%  
22 19% 29%  
23 6% 9%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 5% 99.6%  
20 20% 95%  
21 27% 75% Median
22 25% 49%  
23 17% 24%  
24 5% 6% Last Result
25 1.0% 1.0%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 10% 98%  
20 26% 88% Last Result
21 28% 63% Median
22 22% 35%  
23 10% 13%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 4% 99.4%  
17 12% 96%  
18 28% 84% Last Result
19 30% 56% Median
20 21% 26%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 4% 99.5%  
16 16% 96%  
17 32% 80% Last Result, Median
18 31% 48%  
19 14% 17%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 11% 98%  
15 29% 87% Median
16 35% 58%  
17 16% 23%  
18 6% 7% Last Result
19 1.1% 1.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 4% 99.4%  
13 20% 95%  
14 28% 75% Median
15 37% 47%  
16 8% 10%  
17 1.3% 1.4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations