Opinion Poll by MMR, 16–22 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.7% 22.0–25.5% 21.5–26.1% 21.1–26.5% 20.3–27.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.6% 13.2–16.2% 12.8–16.7% 12.5–17.1% 11.9–17.8%
Píratar 9.2% 14.1% 12.7–15.7% 12.3–16.1% 12.0–16.5% 11.4–17.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.9% 10.7–13.4% 10.3–13.8% 10.0–14.2% 9.4–14.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.1% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.3–12.2% 7.8–12.9%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.8% 8.6–11.2% 8.3–11.5% 8.0–11.9% 7.5–12.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.1% 6.1–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.6% 4.7–6.7% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.3% 3.9–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Samfylkingin 7 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.9% 100%  
14 8% 99.1%  
15 25% 91%  
16 38% 66% Last Result, Median
17 16% 28%  
18 10% 12%  
19 1.1% 1.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100% Last Result
8 10% 99.5%  
9 30% 90%  
10 45% 60% Median
11 14% 15%  
12 1.1% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 1.1% 100%  
8 15% 98.9%  
9 48% 84% Median
10 28% 36%  
11 8% 8%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 30% 96%  
8 45% 66% Median
9 18% 21%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 7% 99.9%  
6 38% 93%  
7 41% 55% Median
8 13% 14% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.9%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 12% 99.7%  
6 53% 88% Median
7 29% 35% Last Result
8 4% 7%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 5% 99.7%  
4 47% 94% Last Result, Median
5 43% 48%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 42% 80% Median
4 36% 38% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 31 43% 29–33 29–34 28–34 28–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 21% 29–32 28–33 28–33 27–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 23% 29–32 28–33 28–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 3% 27–31 27–31 26–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 27 0.1% 25–29 25–29 24–30 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 21–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 20–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–16 12–16 12–16 12–17

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.7% Last Result
29 9% 97%  
30 19% 88%  
31 26% 69% Median
32 23% 43% Majority
33 14% 20%  
34 5% 6%  
35 1.0% 1.2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 1.3% 99.7%  
28 5% 98%  
29 16% 93%  
30 30% 77%  
31 26% 47% Median
32 13% 21% Majority
33 6% 8% Last Result
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.6%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.3% 99.9%  
28 8% 98.6%  
29 15% 91%  
30 26% 75%  
31 26% 49% Median
32 16% 23% Majority
33 6% 8%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 3% 99.6%  
27 12% 97%  
28 25% 85%  
29 25% 60% Median
30 23% 35%  
31 9% 12% Last Result
32 2% 3% Majority
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.7% 100%  
24 4% 99.3% Last Result
25 14% 96%  
26 22% 81%  
27 29% 59% Median
28 20% 30%  
29 8% 10%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.6% 100%  
23 5% 99.4% Last Result
24 15% 95%  
25 23% 79%  
26 31% 56% Median
27 18% 25%  
28 6% 7%  
29 1.1% 1.4%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 7% 97%  
23 20% 90%  
24 31% 70%  
25 24% 39% Median
26 11% 15% Last Result
27 3% 4%  
28 0.7% 0.9%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.6% 100%  
21 3% 99.4%  
22 12% 96%  
23 22% 84%  
24 35% 62% Median
25 16% 27% Last Result
26 8% 11%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.6% 0.6%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 3% 99.7%  
22 14% 97%  
23 21% 82%  
24 31% 61% Median
25 20% 30%  
26 7% 10%  
27 3% 3% Last Result
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 5% 99.6%  
21 15% 95%  
22 26% 80%  
23 31% 55% Median
24 17% 23% Last Result
25 5% 7%  
26 1.5% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.9%  
20 6% 98.8%  
21 21% 93%  
22 31% 72% Median
23 24% 41% Last Result
24 11% 18%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.8% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 3% 99.6%  
19 11% 97%  
20 25% 86%  
21 34% 61% Median
22 18% 27%  
23 7% 9%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 4% 99.2%  
19 16% 95%  
20 35% 79% Last Result, Median
21 26% 44%  
22 13% 19%  
23 5% 6%  
24 1.0% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 4% 99.6%  
16 16% 96%  
17 26% 79%  
18 35% 54% Last Result, Median
19 15% 18%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.9% 100%  
15 6% 99.1%  
16 24% 93%  
17 32% 69% Last Result, Median
18 26% 37%  
19 9% 12%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 4% 99.8%  
13 15% 96%  
14 31% 81%  
15 31% 50% Median
16 15% 19%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 5% 99.5%  
13 21% 94%  
14 36% 74% Median
15 27% 38%  
16 8% 10%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations