Opinion Poll by MMR, 16–22 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.7% |
22.0–25.5% |
21.5–26.1% |
21.1–26.5% |
20.3–27.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.6% |
13.2–16.2% |
12.8–16.7% |
12.5–17.1% |
11.9–17.8% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
14.1% |
12.7–15.7% |
12.3–16.1% |
12.0–16.5% |
11.4–17.3% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.9% |
10.7–13.4% |
10.3–13.8% |
10.0–14.2% |
9.4–14.9% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.1% |
8.9–11.5% |
8.6–11.9% |
8.3–12.2% |
7.8–12.9% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.8% |
8.6–11.2% |
8.3–11.5% |
8.0–11.9% |
7.5–12.6% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
7.1% |
6.1–8.3% |
5.9–8.6% |
5.6–8.9% |
5.2–9.5% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.6% |
4.7–6.7% |
4.5–7.0% |
4.3–7.3% |
3.9–7.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
14 |
8% |
99.1% |
|
15 |
25% |
91% |
|
16 |
38% |
66% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
16% |
28% |
|
18 |
10% |
12% |
|
19 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
10% |
99.5% |
|
9 |
30% |
90% |
|
10 |
45% |
60% |
Median |
11 |
14% |
15% |
|
12 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
15% |
98.9% |
|
9 |
48% |
84% |
Median |
10 |
28% |
36% |
|
11 |
8% |
8% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
30% |
96% |
|
8 |
45% |
66% |
Median |
9 |
18% |
21% |
|
10 |
3% |
3% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
38% |
93% |
|
7 |
41% |
55% |
Median |
8 |
13% |
14% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
12% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
53% |
88% |
Median |
7 |
29% |
35% |
Last Result |
8 |
4% |
7% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
3 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
47% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
43% |
48% |
|
6 |
4% |
4% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
80% |
|
2 |
0% |
80% |
|
3 |
42% |
80% |
Median |
4 |
36% |
38% |
Last Result |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
31 |
43% |
29–33 |
29–34 |
28–34 |
28–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
21% |
29–32 |
28–33 |
28–33 |
27–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
30 |
23% |
29–32 |
28–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
3% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
27 |
0.1% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
21–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
20–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
15–21 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
12–16 |
12–16 |
12–17 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
29 |
9% |
97% |
|
30 |
19% |
88% |
|
31 |
26% |
69% |
Median |
32 |
23% |
43% |
Majority |
33 |
14% |
20% |
|
34 |
5% |
6% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
5% |
98% |
|
29 |
16% |
93% |
|
30 |
30% |
77% |
|
31 |
26% |
47% |
Median |
32 |
13% |
21% |
Majority |
33 |
6% |
8% |
Last Result |
34 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
8% |
98.6% |
|
29 |
15% |
91% |
|
30 |
26% |
75% |
|
31 |
26% |
49% |
Median |
32 |
16% |
23% |
Majority |
33 |
6% |
8% |
|
34 |
2% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
12% |
97% |
|
28 |
25% |
85% |
|
29 |
25% |
60% |
Median |
30 |
23% |
35% |
|
31 |
9% |
12% |
Last Result |
32 |
2% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
25 |
14% |
96% |
|
26 |
22% |
81% |
|
27 |
29% |
59% |
Median |
28 |
20% |
30% |
|
29 |
8% |
10% |
|
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
23 |
5% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
24 |
15% |
95% |
|
25 |
23% |
79% |
|
26 |
31% |
56% |
Median |
27 |
18% |
25% |
|
28 |
6% |
7% |
|
29 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
7% |
97% |
|
23 |
20% |
90% |
|
24 |
31% |
70% |
|
25 |
24% |
39% |
Median |
26 |
11% |
15% |
Last Result |
27 |
3% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
12% |
96% |
|
23 |
22% |
84% |
|
24 |
35% |
62% |
Median |
25 |
16% |
27% |
Last Result |
26 |
8% |
11% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
14% |
97% |
|
23 |
21% |
82% |
|
24 |
31% |
61% |
Median |
25 |
20% |
30% |
|
26 |
7% |
10% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
15% |
95% |
|
22 |
26% |
80% |
|
23 |
31% |
55% |
Median |
24 |
17% |
23% |
Last Result |
25 |
5% |
7% |
|
26 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
21 |
21% |
93% |
|
22 |
31% |
72% |
Median |
23 |
24% |
41% |
Last Result |
24 |
11% |
18% |
|
25 |
5% |
6% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
11% |
97% |
|
20 |
25% |
86% |
|
21 |
34% |
61% |
Median |
22 |
18% |
27% |
|
23 |
7% |
9% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
19 |
16% |
95% |
|
20 |
35% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
26% |
44% |
|
22 |
13% |
19% |
|
23 |
5% |
6% |
|
24 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
16% |
96% |
|
17 |
26% |
79% |
|
18 |
35% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
15% |
18% |
|
20 |
3% |
4% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
15 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
16 |
24% |
93% |
|
17 |
32% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
26% |
37% |
|
19 |
9% |
12% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
15% |
96% |
|
14 |
31% |
81% |
|
15 |
31% |
50% |
Median |
16 |
15% |
19% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
|
18 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
12 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
13 |
21% |
94% |
|
14 |
36% |
74% |
Median |
15 |
27% |
38% |
|
16 |
8% |
10% |
|
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–22 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 929
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%