Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–31 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.8% |
23.0–24.7% |
22.7–24.9% |
22.5–25.1% |
22.1–25.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
17.9% |
17.1–18.7% |
16.9–18.9% |
16.8–19.1% |
16.4–19.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.3% |
12.6–14.0% |
12.4–14.2% |
12.3–14.4% |
12.0–14.7% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.3% |
12.6–14.0% |
12.4–14.2% |
12.3–14.4% |
12.0–14.7% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.9% |
8.3–9.5% |
8.2–9.7% |
8.0–9.8% |
7.8–10.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.5% |
8.0–9.1% |
7.8–9.3% |
7.7–9.4% |
7.4–9.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
8.4% |
7.9–9.0% |
7.7–9.1% |
7.6–9.3% |
7.3–9.6% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.1% |
3.7–4.5% |
3.6–4.6% |
3.5–4.8% |
3.4–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
5% |
100% |
|
16 |
52% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
42% |
43% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
9% |
100% |
|
12 |
68% |
91% |
Median |
13 |
23% |
23% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
16% |
100% |
|
9 |
76% |
84% |
Median |
10 |
8% |
8% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
15% |
100% |
|
9 |
81% |
85% |
Median |
10 |
5% |
5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
18% |
100% |
|
6 |
80% |
82% |
Median |
7 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
52% |
100% |
Median |
6 |
48% |
48% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
66% |
99.9% |
Median |
6 |
34% |
34% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
35 |
100% |
34–36 |
34–36 |
34–37 |
34–37 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
89% |
31–33 |
31–33 |
31–34 |
31–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
31 |
30% |
30–32 |
30–32 |
30–32 |
29–33 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
30 |
0.8% |
29–31 |
29–31 |
29–31 |
28–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
0% |
28–29 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
27–29 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
25–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–22 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
18 |
0% |
17–18 |
17–19 |
17–19 |
16–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
14–15 |
13–15 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
34 |
11% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
53% |
89% |
Median |
36 |
32% |
36% |
|
37 |
4% |
4% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
11% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
45% |
89% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
40% |
44% |
Last Result |
34 |
4% |
4% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
30 |
16% |
99.3% |
|
31 |
53% |
83% |
Median |
32 |
29% |
30% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
29 |
24% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
53% |
75% |
Median |
31 |
21% |
22% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
42% |
94% |
Median |
29 |
47% |
53% |
|
30 |
5% |
5% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
32% |
95% |
Median |
28 |
53% |
64% |
|
29 |
10% |
10% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
4% |
100% |
|
26 |
22% |
96% |
Last Result |
27 |
57% |
74% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
17% |
|
29 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
6% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
26 |
41% |
94% |
Median |
27 |
45% |
53% |
|
28 |
8% |
8% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
24 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
56% |
92% |
Median |
26 |
35% |
37% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
13% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
53% |
87% |
Median |
23 |
33% |
34% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
25% |
98% |
Median |
22 |
58% |
73% |
|
23 |
15% |
15% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
36% |
98% |
Median |
22 |
49% |
62% |
|
23 |
12% |
12% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
19% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
55% |
80% |
Median |
22 |
24% |
25% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
19 |
13% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
52% |
87% |
Median |
21 |
33% |
35% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
2% |
100% |
|
17 |
24% |
98% |
Last Result |
18 |
66% |
75% |
Median |
19 |
9% |
9% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
4% |
100% |
|
14 |
23% |
96% |
|
15 |
67% |
73% |
Median |
16 |
6% |
6% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
5% |
100% |
|
14 |
52% |
95% |
Median |
15 |
40% |
43% |
|
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–31 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 4026
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.75%