Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–31 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.8% 23.0–24.7% 22.7–24.9% 22.5–25.1% 22.1–25.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 17.9% 17.1–18.7% 16.9–18.9% 16.8–19.1% 16.4–19.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.3% 12.6–14.0% 12.4–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.0–14.7%
Píratar 9.2% 13.3% 12.6–14.0% 12.4–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.0–14.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.9% 8.3–9.5% 8.2–9.7% 8.0–9.8% 7.8–10.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.5% 8.0–9.1% 7.8–9.3% 7.7–9.4% 7.4–9.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.4% 7.9–9.0% 7.7–9.1% 7.6–9.3% 7.3–9.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.1% 3.7–4.5% 3.6–4.6% 3.5–4.8% 3.4–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 16–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
Samfylkingin 7 12 12–13 11–13 11–13 11–13
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Píratar 6 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Viðreisn 4 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 5% 100%  
16 52% 95% Last Result, Median
17 42% 43%  
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 9% 100%  
12 68% 91% Median
13 23% 23%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 16% 100%  
9 76% 84% Median
10 8% 8%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 15% 100%  
9 81% 85% Median
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 18% 100%  
6 80% 82% Median
7 1.4% 1.4%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 52% 100% Median
6 48% 48%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 66% 99.9% Median
6 34% 34%  
7 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 35 100% 34–36 34–36 34–37 34–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 89% 31–33 31–33 31–34 31–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 30% 30–32 30–32 30–32 29–33
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 30 0.8% 29–31 29–31 29–31 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 0% 28–29 27–30 27–30 27–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0% 27–29 27–29 26–29 26–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 27 0% 26–28 26–28 25–28 25–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 27 0% 26–27 25–28 25–28 25–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 25–26 24–26 24–26 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 20–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 20–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 20–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 19–22
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 18 0% 17–18 17–19 17–19 16–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 14–15 14–16 13–16 13–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 14–15 13–15 13–16 13–16

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0.2% 100%  
34 11% 99.8%  
35 53% 89% Median
36 32% 36%  
37 4% 4%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 11% 99.8%  
32 45% 89% Median, Majority
33 40% 44% Last Result
34 4% 4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.7% 100%  
30 16% 99.3%  
31 53% 83% Median
32 29% 30% Majority
33 0.6% 0.6%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 1.2% 100%  
29 24% 98.8%  
30 53% 75% Median
31 21% 22%  
32 0.8% 0.8% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 6% 99.8%  
28 42% 94% Median
29 47% 53%  
30 5% 5%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 5% 99.9%  
27 32% 95% Median
28 53% 64%  
29 10% 10%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 4% 100%  
26 22% 96% Last Result
27 57% 74% Median
28 17% 17%  
29 0.7% 0.7%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 6% 99.9% Last Result
26 41% 94% Median
27 45% 53%  
28 8% 8%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 7% 99.7%  
25 56% 92% Median
26 35% 37%  
27 2% 2% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 13% 99.6%  
22 53% 87% Median
23 33% 34%  
24 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 25% 98% Median
22 58% 73%  
23 15% 15% Last Result
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100% Last Result
21 36% 98% Median
22 49% 62%  
23 12% 12%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.4% 100%  
20 19% 99.6%  
21 55% 80% Median
22 24% 25%  
23 0.9% 0.9%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 13% 99.5%  
20 52% 87% Median
21 33% 35%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 24% 98% Last Result
18 66% 75% Median
19 9% 9%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 4% 100%  
14 23% 96%  
15 67% 73% Median
16 6% 6%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 5% 100%  
14 52% 95% Median
15 40% 43%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations