Opinion Poll by MMR, 12–18 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.6% 20.0–23.4% 19.5–23.9% 19.1–24.4% 18.3–25.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.1% 13.7–16.7% 13.3–17.2% 13.0–17.6% 12.3–18.4%
Píratar 9.2% 14.3% 12.9–15.8% 12.5–16.3% 12.2–16.7% 11.5–17.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.6% 11.3–14.1% 11.0–14.6% 10.7–15.0% 10.1–15.7%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.6% 9.4–12.0% 9.1–12.4% 8.8–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.5% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.6% 7.3–12.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 8.2% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.2% 6.1–10.8%
Viðreisn 6.7% 5.8% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 8–11 8–12 8–12
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Flokkur fólksins 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Viðreisn 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 17% 97%  
14 41% 80% Median
15 31% 40%  
16 7% 9% Last Result
17 1.5% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 6% 99.9%  
9 26% 94%  
10 45% 68% Median
11 20% 23%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.9% 100%  
8 14% 99.1%  
9 47% 85% Median
10 31% 37%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.2% 100%  
7 17% 98.8%  
8 48% 82% Median
9 23% 34%  
10 11% 11%  
11 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 30% 97%  
7 47% 67% Last Result, Median
8 15% 20%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.7% 100%  
5 22% 99.3%  
6 50% 77% Median
7 24% 27%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 15% 99.8% Last Result
5 56% 85% Median
6 27% 29%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0.3% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 38% 88% Median
4 46% 50% Last Result
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 36% 29–33 29–33 29–34 28–35
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 31 25% 29–32 28–33 28–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 2% 27–30 27–31 26–31 25–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 27 0.1% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 27 0.1% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 17–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–20 15–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 18 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 18 0% 15–19 15–19 14–20 13–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–17

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.4% 99.7%  
29 10% 98%  
30 20% 88%  
31 32% 68% Median
32 21% 36% Majority
33 11% 15% Last Result
34 3% 4%  
35 1.3% 1.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 1.3% 99.7%  
28 5% 98% Last Result
29 14% 94%  
30 25% 80% Median
31 30% 55%  
32 18% 25% Majority
33 6% 7%  
34 1.2% 1.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.4%  
27 16% 96%  
28 30% 80% Median
29 25% 50%  
30 16% 24%  
31 7% 9%  
32 1.5% 2% Majority
33 0.6% 0.6%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.9%  
25 7% 98.6%  
26 21% 92%  
27 29% 71% Median
28 25% 41%  
29 11% 16%  
30 4% 5%  
31 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.0% 99.9% Last Result
25 5% 98.9%  
26 17% 94%  
27 32% 77% Median
28 25% 45%  
29 15% 20%  
30 4% 5%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 9% 97%  
24 22% 89%  
25 32% 67% Last Result, Median
26 23% 35%  
27 10% 12%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.5% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.9%  
22 6% 98.8%  
23 23% 93%  
24 32% 69% Median
25 21% 37%  
26 12% 16% Last Result
27 4% 5%  
28 1.0% 1.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 1.1% 100%  
22 8% 98.9%  
23 18% 91% Last Result
24 35% 73% Median
25 26% 37%  
26 9% 12%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 3% 99.5%  
21 16% 97%  
22 30% 81% Median
23 31% 51%  
24 14% 19%  
25 4% 5%  
26 1.2% 1.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.9%  
19 8% 99.0%  
20 20% 91%  
21 32% 72% Median
22 24% 39%  
23 11% 16%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 8% 99.2%  
20 19% 91%  
21 35% 72% Median
22 23% 37%  
23 11% 14% Last Result
24 3% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.6% 100%  
18 4% 99.4%  
19 20% 96%  
20 34% 76% Median
21 25% 42%  
22 13% 17%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.9% 100%  
16 5% 99.1%  
17 22% 94%  
18 36% 71% Last Result, Median
19 24% 36%  
20 9% 11%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.8%  
16 14% 97%  
17 32% 83% Last Result, Median
18 31% 50%  
19 14% 19%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.8% 100%  
14 4% 99.2%  
15 5% 95%  
16 10% 90%  
17 24% 80% Median
18 36% 56%  
19 15% 20%  
20 4% 5% Last Result
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 6% 99.4%  
14 23% 93%  
15 33% 70% Median
16 24% 38%  
17 11% 13%  
18 1.5% 2% Last Result
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 4% 99.8%  
13 18% 96%  
14 38% 77% Median
15 23% 39%  
16 13% 16%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations