Opinion Poll by MMR, 12–18 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.6% |
20.0–23.4% |
19.5–23.9% |
19.1–24.4% |
18.3–25.3% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.1% |
13.7–16.7% |
13.3–17.2% |
13.0–17.6% |
12.3–18.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
14.3% |
12.9–15.8% |
12.5–16.3% |
12.2–16.7% |
11.5–17.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.6% |
11.3–14.1% |
11.0–14.6% |
10.7–15.0% |
10.1–15.7% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.6% |
9.4–12.0% |
9.1–12.4% |
8.8–12.7% |
8.2–13.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.5% |
8.4–10.9% |
8.1–11.2% |
7.8–11.6% |
7.3–12.3% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
8.2% |
7.2–9.5% |
6.9–9.8% |
6.6–10.2% |
6.1–10.8% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
5.8% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.7–7.3% |
4.5–7.5% |
4.1–8.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
17% |
97% |
|
14 |
41% |
80% |
Median |
15 |
31% |
40% |
|
16 |
7% |
9% |
Last Result |
17 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
26% |
94% |
|
10 |
45% |
68% |
Median |
11 |
20% |
23% |
|
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
8 |
14% |
99.1% |
|
9 |
47% |
85% |
Median |
10 |
31% |
37% |
|
11 |
6% |
7% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
17% |
98.8% |
|
8 |
48% |
82% |
Median |
9 |
23% |
34% |
|
10 |
11% |
11% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
30% |
97% |
|
7 |
47% |
67% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
15% |
20% |
|
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
5 |
22% |
99.3% |
|
6 |
50% |
77% |
Median |
7 |
24% |
27% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
15% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
5 |
56% |
85% |
Median |
6 |
27% |
29% |
|
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
12% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.3% |
88% |
|
2 |
0% |
88% |
|
3 |
38% |
88% |
Median |
4 |
46% |
50% |
Last Result |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
31 |
36% |
29–33 |
29–33 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
31 |
25% |
29–32 |
28–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
28 |
2% |
27–30 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
25–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0.1% |
26–29 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
27 |
0.1% |
26–29 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–21 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
15–21 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
18 |
0% |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
13–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–17 |
12–17 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
10% |
98% |
|
30 |
20% |
88% |
|
31 |
32% |
68% |
Median |
32 |
21% |
36% |
Majority |
33 |
11% |
15% |
Last Result |
34 |
3% |
4% |
|
35 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
5% |
98% |
Last Result |
29 |
14% |
94% |
|
30 |
25% |
80% |
Median |
31 |
30% |
55% |
|
32 |
18% |
25% |
Majority |
33 |
6% |
7% |
|
34 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
27 |
16% |
96% |
|
28 |
30% |
80% |
Median |
29 |
25% |
50% |
|
30 |
16% |
24% |
|
31 |
7% |
9% |
|
32 |
1.5% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
7% |
98.6% |
|
26 |
21% |
92% |
|
27 |
29% |
71% |
Median |
28 |
25% |
41% |
|
29 |
11% |
16% |
|
30 |
4% |
5% |
|
31 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
26 |
17% |
94% |
|
27 |
32% |
77% |
Median |
28 |
25% |
45% |
|
29 |
15% |
20% |
|
30 |
4% |
5% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
9% |
97% |
|
24 |
22% |
89% |
|
25 |
32% |
67% |
Last Result, Median |
26 |
23% |
35% |
|
27 |
10% |
12% |
|
28 |
2% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
23 |
23% |
93% |
|
24 |
32% |
69% |
Median |
25 |
21% |
37% |
|
26 |
12% |
16% |
Last Result |
27 |
4% |
5% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
8% |
98.9% |
|
23 |
18% |
91% |
Last Result |
24 |
35% |
73% |
Median |
25 |
26% |
37% |
|
26 |
9% |
12% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
21 |
16% |
97% |
|
22 |
30% |
81% |
Median |
23 |
31% |
51% |
|
24 |
14% |
19% |
|
25 |
4% |
5% |
|
26 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
20 |
20% |
91% |
|
21 |
32% |
72% |
Median |
22 |
24% |
39% |
|
23 |
11% |
16% |
|
24 |
4% |
5% |
|
25 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
19 |
8% |
99.2% |
|
20 |
19% |
91% |
|
21 |
35% |
72% |
Median |
22 |
23% |
37% |
|
23 |
11% |
14% |
Last Result |
24 |
3% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
19 |
20% |
96% |
|
20 |
34% |
76% |
Median |
21 |
25% |
42% |
|
22 |
13% |
17% |
|
23 |
3% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.1% |
|
17 |
22% |
94% |
|
18 |
36% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
24% |
36% |
|
20 |
9% |
11% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
14% |
97% |
|
17 |
32% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
31% |
50% |
|
19 |
14% |
19% |
|
20 |
4% |
5% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
14 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
15 |
5% |
95% |
|
16 |
10% |
90% |
|
17 |
24% |
80% |
Median |
18 |
36% |
56% |
|
19 |
15% |
20% |
|
20 |
4% |
5% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
23% |
93% |
|
15 |
33% |
70% |
Median |
16 |
24% |
38% |
|
17 |
11% |
13% |
|
18 |
1.5% |
2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
18% |
96% |
|
14 |
38% |
77% |
Median |
15 |
23% |
39% |
|
16 |
13% |
16% |
|
17 |
3% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–18 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 925
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.80%