Opinion Poll by MMR, 12–18 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 25.2% | 21.6% | 20.0–23.4% | 19.5–23.9% | 19.1–24.4% | 18.3–25.3% |
| Samfylkingin | 12.1% | 15.1% | 13.7–16.7% | 13.3–17.2% | 13.0–17.6% | 12.3–18.4% |
| Píratar | 9.2% | 14.3% | 12.9–15.8% | 12.5–16.3% | 12.2–16.7% | 11.5–17.5% |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 16.9% | 12.6% | 11.3–14.1% | 11.0–14.6% | 10.7–15.0% | 10.1–15.7% |
| Miðflokkurinn | 10.9% | 10.6% | 9.4–12.0% | 9.1–12.4% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.2–13.4% |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.4–10.9% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.8–11.6% | 7.3–12.3% |
| Flokkur fólksins | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.5% | 6.9–9.8% | 6.6–10.2% | 6.1–10.8% |
| Viðreisn | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.1–8.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 16 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Samfylkingin | 7 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| Píratar | 6 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 11 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Miðflokkurinn | 7 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 8 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Flokkur fólksins | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Viðreisn | 4 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 17% | 97% | |
| 14 | 41% | 80% | Median |
| 15 | 31% | 40% | |
| 16 | 7% | 9% | Last Result |
| 17 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 26% | 94% | |
| 10 | 45% | 68% | Median |
| 11 | 20% | 23% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 14% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 47% | 85% | Median |
| 10 | 31% | 37% | |
| 11 | 6% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 17% | 98.8% | |
| 8 | 48% | 82% | Median |
| 9 | 23% | 34% | |
| 10 | 11% | 11% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 30% | 97% | |
| 7 | 47% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 15% | 20% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 22% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 50% | 77% | Median |
| 7 | 24% | 27% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 15% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 5 | 56% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 27% | 29% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 2 | 0% | 88% | |
| 3 | 38% | 88% | Median |
| 4 | 46% | 50% | Last Result |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 33 | 31 | 36% | 29–33 | 29–33 | 29–34 | 28–35 |
| Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn | 28 | 31 | 25% | 29–32 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 35 | 28 | 2% | 27–30 | 27–31 | 26–31 | 25–33 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 31 | 27 | 0.1% | 26–29 | 25–30 | 25–30 | 24–31 |
| Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 24 | 27 | 0.1% | 26–29 | 25–30 | 25–30 | 24–31 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn | 25 | 25 | 0% | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–29 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 26 | 24 | 0% | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin | 23 | 24 | 0% | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 27 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 26 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 23 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 24 | 20 | 0% | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 18 | 18 | 0% | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 17 | 18 | 0% | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–21 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn | 20 | 18 | 0% | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn | 18 | 15 | 0% | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 19 | 14 | 0% | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 10% | 98% | |
| 30 | 20% | 88% | |
| 31 | 32% | 68% | Median |
| 32 | 21% | 36% | Majority |
| 33 | 11% | 15% | Last Result |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 29 | 14% | 94% | |
| 30 | 25% | 80% | Median |
| 31 | 30% | 55% | |
| 32 | 18% | 25% | Majority |
| 33 | 6% | 7% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 16% | 96% | |
| 28 | 30% | 80% | Median |
| 29 | 25% | 50% | |
| 30 | 16% | 24% | |
| 31 | 7% | 9% | |
| 32 | 1.5% | 2% | Majority |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 7% | 98.6% | |
| 26 | 21% | 92% | |
| 27 | 29% | 71% | Median |
| 28 | 25% | 41% | |
| 29 | 11% | 16% | |
| 30 | 4% | 5% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 25 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 17% | 94% | |
| 27 | 32% | 77% | Median |
| 28 | 25% | 45% | |
| 29 | 15% | 20% | |
| 30 | 4% | 5% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 9% | 97% | |
| 24 | 22% | 89% | |
| 25 | 32% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 26 | 23% | 35% | |
| 27 | 10% | 12% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 23 | 23% | 93% | |
| 24 | 32% | 69% | Median |
| 25 | 21% | 37% | |
| 26 | 12% | 16% | Last Result |
| 27 | 4% | 5% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 23 | 18% | 91% | Last Result |
| 24 | 35% | 73% | Median |
| 25 | 26% | 37% | |
| 26 | 9% | 12% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 16% | 97% | |
| 22 | 30% | 81% | Median |
| 23 | 31% | 51% | |
| 24 | 14% | 19% | |
| 25 | 4% | 5% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 20 | 20% | 91% | |
| 21 | 32% | 72% | Median |
| 22 | 24% | 39% | |
| 23 | 11% | 16% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 19 | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 20 | 19% | 91% | |
| 21 | 35% | 72% | Median |
| 22 | 23% | 37% | |
| 23 | 11% | 14% | Last Result |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 19 | 20% | 96% | |
| 20 | 34% | 76% | Median |
| 21 | 25% | 42% | |
| 22 | 13% | 17% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 17 | 22% | 94% | |
| 18 | 36% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 19 | 24% | 36% | |
| 20 | 9% | 11% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 14% | 97% | |
| 17 | 32% | 83% | Last Result, Median |
| 18 | 31% | 50% | |
| 19 | 14% | 19% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 5% | 95% | |
| 16 | 10% | 90% | |
| 17 | 24% | 80% | Median |
| 18 | 36% | 56% | |
| 19 | 15% | 20% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 23% | 93% | |
| 15 | 33% | 70% | Median |
| 16 | 24% | 38% | |
| 17 | 11% | 13% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 2% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 18% | 96% | |
| 14 | 38% | 77% | Median |
| 15 | 23% | 39% | |
| 16 | 13% | 16% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–18 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 925
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.80%