Opinion Poll by MMR, 10 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.1% 20.4–23.9% 19.9–24.4% 19.5–24.9% 18.7–25.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.6% 15.1–18.3% 14.7–18.7% 14.3–19.2% 13.6–20.0%
Píratar 9.2% 13.4% 12.1–15.0% 11.7–15.4% 11.3–15.8% 10.7–16.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.6% 7.2–10.9% 6.7–11.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.5% 7.1–10.8% 6.6–11.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.0–10.7% 6.5–11.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 7.8% 6.8–9.1% 6.5–9.4% 6.2–9.7% 5.8–10.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 13–18
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 10–12 9–13 9–13
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–8
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 9% 99.7%  
14 30% 90%  
15 42% 61% Median
16 15% 19% Last Result
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.2% 100%  
9 4% 99.8%  
10 25% 96%  
11 40% 71% Median
12 26% 31%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 5% 99.9%  
8 33% 95%  
9 45% 62% Median
10 16% 18%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100%  
6 36% 94%  
7 43% 58% Last Result, Median
8 9% 15%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 41% 97%  
6 46% 56% Median
7 8% 10%  
8 1.4% 2% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 42% 96%  
6 46% 54% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100% Last Result
5 45% 96%  
6 44% 51% Median
7 6% 7%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 23% 99.3% Last Result
5 59% 76% Median
6 16% 17%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 31 30% 29–32 29–33 28–33 27–34
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 33 29 3% 27–31 27–31 27–32 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 24–27 24–28 24–28 23–29
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–28 22–28
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–22 19–22 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 20 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 18–24
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 18 0% 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 14 0% 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 12 0% 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–16
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 11 0% 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–14

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.5% 100%  
28 2% 99.4% Last Result
29 9% 97%  
30 22% 88%  
31 36% 66%  
32 22% 30% Median, Majority
33 7% 8%  
34 1.0% 1.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 8% 98%  
28 26% 90%  
29 31% 63%  
30 21% 33% Median
31 8% 11%  
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 6% 99.3%  
26 25% 93%  
27 33% 68%  
28 21% 35% Median
29 9% 13%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.0%  
25 33% 95%  
26 37% 61%  
27 12% 25% Median
28 9% 13%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 2% 99.7% Last Result
24 12% 98%  
25 24% 86%  
26 36% 62% Median
27 19% 26%  
28 5% 7%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.9%  
23 4% 98.9%  
24 17% 95% Last Result
25 32% 78%  
26 29% 45% Median
27 13% 16%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 6% 99.1%  
22 15% 93%  
23 36% 78%  
24 26% 42% Median
25 13% 17% Last Result
26 3% 4%  
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.9%  
20 5% 98.7%  
21 18% 94%  
22 37% 75%  
23 24% 39% Median
24 11% 14%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 4% 99.7%  
20 14% 96%  
21 35% 82%  
22 30% 47% Median
23 11% 17% Last Result
24 5% 6%  
25 1.1% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 19% 98%  
20 36% 79%  
21 28% 43% Median
22 11% 15%  
23 3% 4%  
24 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 3% 99.7%  
19 17% 97%  
20 42% 80%  
21 24% 38% Median
22 10% 14%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 5% 99.6%  
19 20% 95%  
20 32% 75% Last Result
21 29% 42% Median
22 11% 14%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.9%  
16 9% 98.7%  
17 27% 90%  
18 32% 63%  
19 21% 30% Median
20 7% 10%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 12% 98%  
16 31% 85%  
17 35% 54% Median
18 15% 19% Last Result
19 3% 4%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 17% 97%  
14 37% 80%  
15 31% 43% Median
16 10% 12%  
17 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 19% 97%  
12 39% 78%  
13 26% 39% Median
14 10% 13%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 3% 99.9%  
10 20% 97%  
11 40% 77%  
12 29% 37% Median
13 6% 8%  
14 1.3% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations