Opinion Poll by MMR, 10 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.1% |
20.4–23.9% |
19.9–24.4% |
19.5–24.9% |
18.7–25.8% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.6% |
15.1–18.3% |
14.7–18.7% |
14.3–19.2% |
13.6–20.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.4% |
12.1–15.0% |
11.7–15.4% |
11.3–15.8% |
10.7–16.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.3% |
9.1–11.7% |
8.8–12.1% |
8.5–12.5% |
8.0–13.2% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.9% |
7.8–10.2% |
7.5–10.6% |
7.2–10.9% |
6.7–11.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
8.8% |
7.7–10.1% |
7.4–10.5% |
7.1–10.8% |
6.6–11.5% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
8.7% |
7.6–10.0% |
7.3–10.4% |
7.0–10.7% |
6.5–11.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
7.8% |
6.8–9.1% |
6.5–9.4% |
6.2–9.7% |
5.8–10.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
9% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
30% |
90% |
|
15 |
42% |
61% |
Median |
16 |
15% |
19% |
Last Result |
17 |
3% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
9 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
10 |
25% |
96% |
|
11 |
40% |
71% |
Median |
12 |
26% |
31% |
|
13 |
5% |
5% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
33% |
95% |
|
9 |
45% |
62% |
Median |
10 |
16% |
18% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
5% |
100% |
|
6 |
36% |
94% |
|
7 |
43% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
9% |
15% |
|
9 |
5% |
6% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
3% |
100% |
|
5 |
41% |
97% |
|
6 |
46% |
56% |
Median |
7 |
8% |
10% |
|
8 |
1.4% |
2% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
4% |
100% |
|
5 |
42% |
96% |
|
6 |
46% |
54% |
Median |
7 |
7% |
7% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
45% |
96% |
|
6 |
44% |
51% |
Median |
7 |
6% |
7% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
4 |
23% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
5 |
59% |
76% |
Median |
6 |
16% |
17% |
|
7 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
31 |
30% |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
33 |
29 |
3% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–28 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–18 |
15–19 |
14–19 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–16 |
12–17 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
12 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–14 |
10–15 |
10–16 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–13 |
9–13 |
9–14 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
29 |
9% |
97% |
|
30 |
22% |
88% |
|
31 |
36% |
66% |
|
32 |
22% |
30% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
7% |
8% |
|
34 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
8% |
98% |
|
28 |
26% |
90% |
|
29 |
31% |
63% |
|
30 |
21% |
33% |
Median |
31 |
8% |
11% |
|
32 |
3% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
6% |
99.3% |
|
26 |
25% |
93% |
|
27 |
33% |
68% |
|
28 |
21% |
35% |
Median |
29 |
9% |
13% |
|
30 |
3% |
4% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
25 |
33% |
95% |
|
26 |
37% |
61% |
|
27 |
12% |
25% |
Median |
28 |
9% |
13% |
|
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
24 |
12% |
98% |
|
25 |
24% |
86% |
|
26 |
36% |
62% |
Median |
27 |
19% |
26% |
|
28 |
5% |
7% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
24 |
17% |
95% |
Last Result |
25 |
32% |
78% |
|
26 |
29% |
45% |
Median |
27 |
13% |
16% |
|
28 |
3% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
15% |
93% |
|
23 |
36% |
78% |
|
24 |
26% |
42% |
Median |
25 |
13% |
17% |
Last Result |
26 |
3% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
5% |
98.7% |
|
21 |
18% |
94% |
|
22 |
37% |
75% |
|
23 |
24% |
39% |
Median |
24 |
11% |
14% |
|
25 |
2% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
14% |
96% |
|
21 |
35% |
82% |
|
22 |
30% |
47% |
Median |
23 |
11% |
17% |
Last Result |
24 |
5% |
6% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
19% |
98% |
|
20 |
36% |
79% |
|
21 |
28% |
43% |
Median |
22 |
11% |
15% |
|
23 |
3% |
4% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
17% |
97% |
|
20 |
42% |
80% |
|
21 |
24% |
38% |
Median |
22 |
10% |
14% |
|
23 |
3% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
20% |
95% |
|
20 |
32% |
75% |
Last Result |
21 |
29% |
42% |
Median |
22 |
11% |
14% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
9% |
98.7% |
|
17 |
27% |
90% |
|
18 |
32% |
63% |
|
19 |
21% |
30% |
Median |
20 |
7% |
10% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
12% |
98% |
|
16 |
31% |
85% |
|
17 |
35% |
54% |
Median |
18 |
15% |
19% |
Last Result |
19 |
3% |
4% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
17% |
97% |
|
14 |
37% |
80% |
|
15 |
31% |
43% |
Median |
16 |
10% |
12% |
|
17 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
19% |
97% |
|
12 |
39% |
78% |
|
13 |
26% |
39% |
Median |
14 |
10% |
13% |
|
15 |
3% |
3% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
20% |
97% |
|
11 |
40% |
77% |
|
12 |
29% |
37% |
Median |
13 |
6% |
8% |
|
14 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.11%