Opinion Poll by MMR, 10 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 25.2% | 22.1% | 20.4–23.9% | 19.9–24.4% | 19.5–24.9% | 18.7–25.8% |
| Samfylkingin | 12.1% | 16.6% | 15.1–18.3% | 14.7–18.7% | 14.3–19.2% | 13.6–20.0% |
| Píratar | 9.2% | 13.4% | 12.1–15.0% | 11.7–15.4% | 11.3–15.8% | 10.7–16.6% |
| Miðflokkurinn | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.1–11.7% | 8.8–12.1% | 8.5–12.5% | 8.0–13.2% |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.5–10.6% | 7.2–10.9% | 6.7–11.6% |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 16.9% | 8.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.4–10.5% | 7.1–10.8% | 6.6–11.5% |
| Viðreisn | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.3–10.4% | 7.0–10.7% | 6.5–11.4% |
| Flokkur fólksins | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8–9.1% | 6.5–9.4% | 6.2–9.7% | 5.8–10.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 16 | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| Samfylkingin | 7 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Píratar | 6 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Miðflokkurinn | 7 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 8 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 11 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Viðreisn | 4 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Flokkur fólksins | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 30% | 90% | |
| 15 | 42% | 61% | Median |
| 16 | 15% | 19% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 25% | 96% | |
| 11 | 40% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 26% | 31% | |
| 13 | 5% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 33% | 95% | |
| 9 | 45% | 62% | Median |
| 10 | 16% | 18% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 36% | 94% | |
| 7 | 43% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 9% | 15% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 41% | 97% | |
| 6 | 46% | 56% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 10% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 42% | 96% | |
| 6 | 46% | 54% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 45% | 96% | |
| 6 | 44% | 51% | Median |
| 7 | 6% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 23% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 59% | 76% | Median |
| 6 | 16% | 17% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn | 28 | 31 | 30% | 29–32 | 29–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 33 | 29 | 3% | 27–31 | 27–31 | 27–32 | 26–32 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 31 | 27 | 0% | 26–29 | 25–29 | 25–30 | 24–31 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 35 | 26 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–29 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin | 23 | 26 | 0% | 24–27 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 24 | 25 | 0% | 24–27 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 22–28 |
| Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 25 | 23 | 0% | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 26 | 22 | 0% | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 23 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–24 | 19–25 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 24 | 20 | 0% | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 27 | 20 | 0% | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–24 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn | 20 | 20 | 0% | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–24 |
| Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 26 | 18 | 0% | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 18 | 17 | 0% | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 |
| Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 17 | 14 | 0% | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 18 | 12 | 0% | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 19 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 29 | 9% | 97% | |
| 30 | 22% | 88% | |
| 31 | 36% | 66% | |
| 32 | 22% | 30% | Median, Majority |
| 33 | 7% | 8% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 8% | 98% | |
| 28 | 26% | 90% | |
| 29 | 31% | 63% | |
| 30 | 21% | 33% | Median |
| 31 | 8% | 11% | |
| 32 | 3% | 3% | Majority |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 25% | 93% | |
| 27 | 33% | 68% | |
| 28 | 21% | 35% | Median |
| 29 | 9% | 13% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 25 | 33% | 95% | |
| 26 | 37% | 61% | |
| 27 | 12% | 25% | Median |
| 28 | 9% | 13% | |
| 29 | 3% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 24 | 12% | 98% | |
| 25 | 24% | 86% | |
| 26 | 36% | 62% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 26% | |
| 28 | 5% | 7% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 17% | 95% | Last Result |
| 25 | 32% | 78% | |
| 26 | 29% | 45% | Median |
| 27 | 13% | 16% | |
| 28 | 3% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 15% | 93% | |
| 23 | 36% | 78% | |
| 24 | 26% | 42% | Median |
| 25 | 13% | 17% | Last Result |
| 26 | 3% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 18% | 94% | |
| 22 | 37% | 75% | |
| 23 | 24% | 39% | Median |
| 24 | 11% | 14% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 14% | 96% | |
| 21 | 35% | 82% | |
| 22 | 30% | 47% | Median |
| 23 | 11% | 17% | Last Result |
| 24 | 5% | 6% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 19% | 98% | |
| 20 | 36% | 79% | |
| 21 | 28% | 43% | Median |
| 22 | 11% | 15% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 17% | 97% | |
| 20 | 42% | 80% | |
| 21 | 24% | 38% | Median |
| 22 | 10% | 14% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 20% | 95% | |
| 20 | 32% | 75% | Last Result |
| 21 | 29% | 42% | Median |
| 22 | 11% | 14% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 9% | 98.7% | |
| 17 | 27% | 90% | |
| 18 | 32% | 63% | |
| 19 | 21% | 30% | Median |
| 20 | 7% | 10% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 12% | 98% | |
| 16 | 31% | 85% | |
| 17 | 35% | 54% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 19% | Last Result |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 17% | 97% | |
| 14 | 37% | 80% | |
| 15 | 31% | 43% | Median |
| 16 | 10% | 12% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 19% | 97% | |
| 12 | 39% | 78% | |
| 13 | 26% | 39% | Median |
| 14 | 10% | 13% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 20% | 97% | |
| 11 | 40% | 77% | |
| 12 | 29% | 37% | Median |
| 13 | 6% | 8% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.11%