Opinion Poll by MMR, 7–12 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 25.2% | 21.3% | 19.7–23.1% | 19.2–23.6% | 18.8–24.0% | 18.1–24.9% |
| Samfylkingin | 12.1% | 19.8% | 18.2–21.6% | 17.8–22.1% | 17.4–22.5% | 16.7–23.3% |
| Píratar | 9.2% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.5–15.2% | 11.2–15.5% | 10.6–16.3% |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 16.9% | 11.1% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.3% | 8.7–14.0% |
| Miðflokkurinn | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.6–12.2% | 9.3–12.6% | 9.0–12.9% | 8.4–13.6% |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 10.7% | 8.1% | 7.0–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.5–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| Viðreisn | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.8–9.1% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.3–9.8% | 5.9–10.4% |
| Flokkur fólksins | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.5–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.1–7.0% | 3.7–7.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 16 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Samfylkingin | 7 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Píratar | 6 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 11 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Miðflokkurinn | 7 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 8 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Viðreisn | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Flokkur fólksins | 4 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 23% | 97% | |
| 14 | 37% | 74% | Median |
| 15 | 28% | 37% | |
| 16 | 7% | 9% | Last Result |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 19% | 96% | |
| 13 | 34% | 77% | Median |
| 14 | 26% | 43% | |
| 15 | 15% | 17% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 8% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 35% | 91% | |
| 9 | 41% | 56% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 16% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 6 | 17% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 49% | 83% | Median |
| 8 | 28% | 34% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 28% | 98% | |
| 7 | 40% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 8 | 12% | 30% | |
| 9 | 17% | 19% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 17% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 59% | 83% | Median |
| 6 | 22% | 24% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 26% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 5 | 59% | 74% | Median |
| 6 | 14% | 15% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 73% | |
| 2 | 0% | 73% | |
| 3 | 48% | 73% | Median |
| 4 | 24% | 25% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn | 28 | 34 | 96% | 32–36 | 32–37 | 31–37 | 30–38 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 33 | 33 | 85% | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–36 |
| Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 24 | 29 | 5% | 27–31 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 26–33 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn | 25 | 28 | 0.3% | 26–30 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin | 23 | 27 | 0.2% | 26–30 | 25–30 | 25–30 | 24–31 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 31 | 26 | 0.1% | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 35 | 26 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 26 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 | 22–29 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 23 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 27 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 19–25 |
| Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 18 | 21 | 0% | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 26 | 20 | 0% | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 24 | 19 | 0% | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn | 20 | 19 | 0% | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–23 |
| Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 17 | 16 | 0% | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn | 18 | 14 | 0% | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 19 | 12 | 0% | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 32 | 10% | 96% | Majority |
| 33 | 21% | 86% | |
| 34 | 23% | 65% | Median |
| 35 | 24% | 41% | |
| 36 | 12% | 18% | |
| 37 | 4% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 9% | 94% | |
| 32 | 25% | 85% | Median, Majority |
| 33 | 30% | 59% | Last Result |
| 34 | 16% | 29% | |
| 35 | 9% | 14% | |
| 36 | 4% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 9% | 96% | |
| 28 | 17% | 87% | |
| 29 | 26% | 71% | Median |
| 30 | 27% | 44% | |
| 31 | 12% | 17% | |
| 32 | 4% | 5% | Majority |
| 33 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 5% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 26 | 11% | 95% | |
| 27 | 27% | 84% | Median |
| 28 | 29% | 57% | |
| 29 | 16% | 28% | |
| 30 | 9% | 11% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 26 | 16% | 92% | |
| 27 | 28% | 76% | Median |
| 28 | 23% | 48% | |
| 29 | 15% | 25% | |
| 30 | 9% | 10% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 22% | 93% | |
| 26 | 24% | 71% | Median |
| 27 | 25% | 48% | |
| 28 | 14% | 23% | |
| 29 | 7% | 9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 25 | 17% | 93% | |
| 26 | 28% | 76% | Median |
| 27 | 26% | 48% | |
| 28 | 13% | 22% | |
| 29 | 7% | 9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 24 | 14% | 93% | |
| 25 | 24% | 78% | Median |
| 26 | 26% | 55% | Last Result |
| 27 | 18% | 28% | |
| 28 | 8% | 10% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 19 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 20 | 20% | 93% | |
| 21 | 28% | 72% | Median |
| 22 | 24% | 44% | |
| 23 | 12% | 20% | Last Result |
| 24 | 6% | 7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 18% | 94% | |
| 21 | 30% | 76% | Median |
| 22 | 28% | 46% | |
| 23 | 13% | 18% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 19 | 16% | 94% | |
| 20 | 26% | 78% | Median |
| 21 | 27% | 53% | |
| 22 | 19% | 25% | |
| 23 | 5% | 6% | |
| 24 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 18 | 18% | 93% | |
| 19 | 25% | 75% | Median |
| 20 | 25% | 50% | |
| 21 | 18% | 25% | |
| 22 | 6% | 7% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 20% | 94% | |
| 19 | 34% | 74% | Median |
| 20 | 26% | 40% | |
| 21 | 10% | 14% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 23% | 93% | |
| 19 | 38% | 70% | Median |
| 20 | 21% | 32% | Last Result |
| 21 | 9% | 11% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 10% | 98% | |
| 15 | 23% | 88% | |
| 16 | 37% | 65% | Median |
| 17 | 22% | 28% | Last Result |
| 18 | 5% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 19% | 94% | |
| 14 | 30% | 75% | Median |
| 15 | 23% | 45% | |
| 16 | 16% | 22% | |
| 17 | 5% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 18% | 96% | |
| 12 | 38% | 78% | Median |
| 13 | 28% | 41% | |
| 14 | 11% | 13% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–12 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 953
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.27%