Opinion Poll by MMR, 7–12 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.3% 19.7–23.1% 19.2–23.6% 18.8–24.0% 18.1–24.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 19.8% 18.2–21.6% 17.8–22.1% 17.4–22.5% 16.7–23.3%
Píratar 9.2% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.5–15.2% 11.2–15.5% 10.6–16.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.3% 8.7–14.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.6% 9.0–12.9% 8.4–13.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.1% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.5–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.9% 6.8–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.3–9.8% 5.9–10.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.4% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Samfylkingin 7 13 12–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
Píratar 6 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Viðreisn 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 23% 97%  
14 37% 74% Median
15 28% 37%  
16 7% 9% Last Result
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 4% 99.8%  
12 19% 96%  
13 34% 77% Median
14 26% 43%  
15 15% 17%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 8% 99.8%  
8 35% 91%  
9 41% 56% Median
10 15% 16%  
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 17% 99.2%  
7 49% 83% Median
8 28% 34%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 28% 98%  
7 40% 70% Last Result, Median
8 12% 30%  
9 17% 19%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 17% 99.8%  
5 59% 83% Median
6 22% 24%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 26% 99.5% Last Result
5 59% 74% Median
6 14% 15%  
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 48% 73% Median
4 24% 25% Last Result
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 34 96% 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–38
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 33 85% 31–35 30–35 30–36 29–36
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 29 5% 27–31 27–31 26–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 28 0.3% 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0.2% 26–30 25–30 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 26 0.1% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 19–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 21 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–23
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 11–14 11–14 10–14 10–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.1%  
32 10% 96% Majority
33 21% 86%  
34 23% 65% Median
35 24% 41%  
36 12% 18%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.1% 1.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.9%  
30 5% 98.9%  
31 9% 94%  
32 25% 85% Median, Majority
33 30% 59% Last Result
34 16% 29%  
35 9% 14%  
36 4% 4%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100% Last Result
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.5%  
27 9% 96%  
28 17% 87%  
29 26% 71% Median
30 27% 44%  
31 12% 17%  
32 4% 5% Majority
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.9%  
25 5% 99.0% Last Result
26 11% 95%  
27 27% 84% Median
28 29% 57%  
29 16% 28%  
30 9% 11%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100% Last Result
24 1.0% 99.9%  
25 7% 99.0%  
26 16% 92%  
27 28% 76% Median
28 23% 48%  
29 15% 25%  
30 9% 10%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 6% 99.2%  
25 22% 93%  
26 24% 71% Median
27 25% 48%  
28 14% 23%  
29 7% 9%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 6% 99.2%  
25 17% 93%  
26 28% 76% Median
27 26% 48%  
28 13% 22%  
29 7% 9%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.9%  
23 6% 99.0%  
24 14% 93%  
25 24% 78% Median
26 26% 55% Last Result
27 18% 28%  
28 8% 10%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 7% 99.3%  
20 20% 93%  
21 28% 72% Median
22 24% 44%  
23 12% 20% Last Result
24 6% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 6% 99.6%  
20 18% 94%  
21 30% 76% Median
22 28% 46%  
23 13% 18%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.7% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 5% 99.4% Last Result
19 16% 94%  
20 26% 78% Median
21 27% 53%  
22 19% 25%  
23 5% 6%  
24 1.2% 1.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.3% 99.9%  
17 6% 98.5%  
18 18% 93%  
19 25% 75% Median
20 25% 50%  
21 18% 25%  
22 6% 7%  
23 0.9% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 5% 99.4%  
18 20% 94%  
19 34% 74% Median
20 26% 40%  
21 10% 14%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 0.8%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 7% 99.4%  
18 23% 93%  
19 38% 70% Median
20 21% 32% Last Result
21 9% 11%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.8%  
14 10% 98%  
15 23% 88%  
16 37% 65% Median
17 22% 28% Last Result
18 5% 6%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 5% 99.3%  
13 19% 94%  
14 30% 75% Median
15 23% 45%  
16 16% 22%  
17 5% 5%  
18 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 4% 99.8%  
11 18% 96%  
12 38% 78% Median
13 28% 41%  
14 11% 13%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations