Opinion Poll by MMR, 7–12 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.3% |
19.7–23.1% |
19.2–23.6% |
18.8–24.0% |
18.1–24.9% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
19.8% |
18.2–21.6% |
17.8–22.1% |
17.4–22.5% |
16.7–23.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.2% |
11.9–14.7% |
11.5–15.2% |
11.2–15.5% |
10.6–16.3% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.1% |
9.9–12.5% |
9.6–12.9% |
9.3–13.3% |
8.7–14.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.8% |
9.6–12.2% |
9.3–12.6% |
9.0–12.9% |
8.4–13.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.1% |
7.0–9.3% |
6.8–9.7% |
6.5–10.0% |
6.1–10.6% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
7.9% |
6.8–9.1% |
6.6–9.4% |
6.3–9.8% |
5.9–10.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.4% |
4.5–6.4% |
4.3–6.7% |
4.1–7.0% |
3.7–7.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
23% |
97% |
|
14 |
37% |
74% |
Median |
15 |
28% |
37% |
|
16 |
7% |
9% |
Last Result |
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
19% |
96% |
|
13 |
34% |
77% |
Median |
14 |
26% |
43% |
|
15 |
15% |
17% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
35% |
91% |
|
9 |
41% |
56% |
Median |
10 |
15% |
16% |
|
11 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
6 |
17% |
99.2% |
|
7 |
49% |
83% |
Median |
8 |
28% |
34% |
|
9 |
5% |
6% |
|
10 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
28% |
98% |
|
7 |
40% |
70% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
12% |
30% |
|
9 |
17% |
19% |
|
10 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
17% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
59% |
83% |
Median |
6 |
22% |
24% |
|
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
26% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
5 |
59% |
74% |
Median |
6 |
14% |
15% |
|
7 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
27% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
73% |
|
2 |
0% |
73% |
|
3 |
48% |
73% |
Median |
4 |
24% |
25% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
34 |
96% |
32–36 |
32–37 |
31–37 |
30–38 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
33 |
85% |
31–35 |
30–35 |
30–36 |
29–36 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
29 |
5% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
28 |
0.3% |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0.2% |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
26 |
0.1% |
25–28 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
23–28 |
23–29 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
16–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–22 |
16–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–23 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
12–17 |
12–17 |
11–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
12 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–14 |
10–14 |
10–15 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
32 |
10% |
96% |
Majority |
33 |
21% |
86% |
|
34 |
23% |
65% |
Median |
35 |
24% |
41% |
|
36 |
12% |
18% |
|
37 |
4% |
5% |
|
38 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
31 |
9% |
94% |
|
32 |
25% |
85% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
30% |
59% |
Last Result |
34 |
16% |
29% |
|
35 |
9% |
14% |
|
36 |
4% |
4% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
9% |
96% |
|
28 |
17% |
87% |
|
29 |
26% |
71% |
Median |
30 |
27% |
44% |
|
31 |
12% |
17% |
|
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
5% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
26 |
11% |
95% |
|
27 |
27% |
84% |
Median |
28 |
29% |
57% |
|
29 |
16% |
28% |
|
30 |
9% |
11% |
|
31 |
2% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
7% |
99.0% |
|
26 |
16% |
92% |
|
27 |
28% |
76% |
Median |
28 |
23% |
48% |
|
29 |
15% |
25% |
|
30 |
9% |
10% |
|
31 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
6% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
22% |
93% |
|
26 |
24% |
71% |
Median |
27 |
25% |
48% |
|
28 |
14% |
23% |
|
29 |
7% |
9% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
6% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
17% |
93% |
|
26 |
28% |
76% |
Median |
27 |
26% |
48% |
|
28 |
13% |
22% |
|
29 |
7% |
9% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
6% |
99.0% |
|
24 |
14% |
93% |
|
25 |
24% |
78% |
Median |
26 |
26% |
55% |
Last Result |
27 |
18% |
28% |
|
28 |
8% |
10% |
|
29 |
2% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
19 |
7% |
99.3% |
|
20 |
20% |
93% |
|
21 |
28% |
72% |
Median |
22 |
24% |
44% |
|
23 |
12% |
20% |
Last Result |
24 |
6% |
7% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
19 |
6% |
99.6% |
|
20 |
18% |
94% |
|
21 |
30% |
76% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
46% |
|
23 |
13% |
18% |
|
24 |
4% |
5% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
19 |
16% |
94% |
|
20 |
26% |
78% |
Median |
21 |
27% |
53% |
|
22 |
19% |
25% |
|
23 |
5% |
6% |
|
24 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
6% |
98.5% |
|
18 |
18% |
93% |
|
19 |
25% |
75% |
Median |
20 |
25% |
50% |
|
21 |
18% |
25% |
|
22 |
6% |
7% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
17 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
18 |
20% |
94% |
|
19 |
34% |
74% |
Median |
20 |
26% |
40% |
|
21 |
10% |
14% |
|
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
18 |
23% |
93% |
|
19 |
38% |
70% |
Median |
20 |
21% |
32% |
Last Result |
21 |
9% |
11% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
10% |
98% |
|
15 |
23% |
88% |
|
16 |
37% |
65% |
Median |
17 |
22% |
28% |
Last Result |
18 |
5% |
6% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
12 |
5% |
99.3% |
|
13 |
19% |
94% |
|
14 |
30% |
75% |
Median |
15 |
23% |
45% |
|
16 |
16% |
22% |
|
17 |
5% |
5% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
18% |
96% |
|
12 |
38% |
78% |
Median |
13 |
28% |
41% |
|
14 |
11% |
13% |
|
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–12 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 953
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.27%