Opinion Poll by MMR, 3–9 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.8% 19.2–22.6% 18.7–23.2% 18.4–23.6% 17.6–24.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.7% 15.2–18.4% 14.8–18.9% 14.4–19.3% 13.8–20.1%
Píratar 9.2% 12.7% 11.4–14.2% 11.0–14.6% 10.7–15.0% 10.1–15.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 11.9% 10.7–13.4% 10.3–13.8% 10.0–14.2% 9.4–14.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.0% 9.7–12.4% 9.4–12.8% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–13.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.6% 7.2–10.9% 6.7–11.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.2% 6.9–10.6% 6.4–11.2%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–15 12–16 12–17
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–13
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–8
Viðreisn 4 5 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 0–5 0–5 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.5%  
13 32% 97%  
14 44% 65% Median
15 16% 21%  
16 4% 4% Last Result
17 0.5% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8%  
10 33% 97%  
11 37% 64% Median
12 22% 28%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100% Last Result
7 18% 99.0%  
8 50% 81% Median
9 26% 31%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 5% 100%  
7 18% 95% Last Result
8 16% 77%  
9 44% 61% Median
10 17% 17%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 20% 98.8%  
7 57% 78% Median
8 18% 21%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 41% 96%  
6 47% 55% Median
7 7% 8%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 6% 100% Last Result
5 51% 94% Median
6 38% 42%  
7 4% 5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 36% 94%  
4 51% 58% Last Result, Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 66% 30–34 30–34 30–35 29–36
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 32 51% 30–33 29–34 29–34 28–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 0.6% 26–29 26–30 25–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 25–28 25–29 24–29 23–30
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 26 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–26 23–27 23–27 22–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 20–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 18–21 18–21 17–21 17–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–16

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 2% 99.7%  
30 8% 98%  
31 24% 90%  
32 28% 66% Majority
33 24% 38% Last Result, Median
34 12% 14%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
29 5% 99.2%  
30 16% 95%  
31 27% 78% Median
32 31% 51% Majority
33 12% 20%  
34 6% 8%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 10% 97%  
27 18% 88%  
28 38% 69%  
29 23% 32% Median
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3% Last Result
32 0.5% 0.6% Majority
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.6% 100%  
24 3% 99.4%  
25 12% 96%  
26 38% 84%  
27 30% 46% Median
28 11% 17%  
29 4% 6%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.8%  
24 4% 98.6%  
25 18% 94% Last Result
26 28% 77%  
27 26% 49% Median
28 16% 22%  
29 6% 6%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.8%  
24 8% 98.7% Last Result
25 24% 91%  
26 27% 66% Median
27 25% 39%  
28 10% 14%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 12% 98% Last Result
24 28% 86%  
25 26% 57% Median
26 24% 31%  
27 6% 7%  
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 4% 99.6%  
22 15% 96%  
23 29% 81%  
24 30% 51% Median
25 15% 22%  
26 5% 6% Last Result
27 1.3% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.9%  
20 8% 98.6%  
21 13% 91%  
22 28% 77%  
23 32% 49% Last Result, Median
24 14% 17%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.8%  
19 7% 98%  
20 20% 91%  
21 35% 71%  
22 23% 36% Median
23 10% 13%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.9%  
19 7% 98.9%  
20 26% 92%  
21 41% 66% Median
22 17% 24%  
23 5% 7%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 13% 98%  
19 39% 85%  
20 33% 46% Median
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 3% 99.6%  
18 19% 97%  
19 39% 78% Median
20 28% 39% Last Result
21 9% 11%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.8% 100%  
16 7% 99.2%  
17 28% 92%  
18 33% 64% Last Result, Median
19 22% 31%  
20 7% 9%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.9%  
13 4% 99.2%  
14 14% 95%  
15 25% 81%  
16 38% 56% Median
17 13% 18%  
18 4% 5% Last Result
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 5% 99.7%  
14 20% 95%  
15 39% 75% Median
16 25% 36%  
17 9% 11% Last Result
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.0% 99.9%  
11 12% 98.9%  
12 33% 87%  
13 37% 54% Median
14 13% 18%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations