Opinion Poll by MMR, 22 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.8% 19.1–22.6% 18.7–23.1% 18.3–23.5% 17.5–24.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.5% 15.0–18.2% 14.6–18.6% 14.2–19.0% 13.5–19.9%
Píratar 9.2% 13.2% 11.8–14.7% 11.5–15.2% 11.1–15.5% 10.5–16.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.7% 11.4–14.3% 11.1–14.7% 10.7–15.1% 10.1–15.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.2–12.6% 8.9–13.0% 8.4–13.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.9% 8.7–11.3% 8.4–11.7% 8.1–12.0% 7.6–12.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.8% 6.8–9.1% 6.5–9.4% 6.2–9.7% 5.8–10.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 12–15 12–15 11–16
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–12 9–12 9–13 9–13
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 0–4 0–5 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 8% 99.2%  
13 34% 92%  
14 38% 57% Median
15 17% 20%  
16 2% 2% Last Result
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.2% 100%  
9 6% 99.8%  
10 59% 93% Median
11 25% 35%  
12 7% 10%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100% Last Result
7 10% 99.4%  
8 45% 89% Median
9 38% 45%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 6% 99.5% Last Result
8 8% 93%  
9 52% 85% Median
10 32% 33%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 27% 98%  
7 53% 70% Median
8 15% 17%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100% Last Result
5 14% 99.7%  
6 55% 86% Median
7 28% 31%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.1% 100%  
4 18% 98.9%  
5 64% 81% Median
6 17% 17%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 38% 91%  
4 49% 53% Last Result, Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 32 58% 30–34 30–34 30–35 29–36
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 41% 30–33 29–34 29–34 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 0.1% 26–29 26–30 25–30 24–31
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–26 23–26 22–27 21–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–22 19–23 18–23 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 11–13 10–13 10–14 9–14

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100% Last Result
29 2% 99.7%  
30 8% 98%  
31 32% 90% Median
32 30% 58% Majority
33 18% 28%  
34 7% 11%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.9%  
29 6% 99.0%  
30 13% 93%  
31 40% 80% Median
32 21% 41% Majority
33 14% 20% Last Result
34 5% 6%  
35 1.1% 1.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 10% 97%  
27 23% 87%  
28 39% 64% Median
29 18% 25%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.2%  
25 14% 94% Last Result
26 36% 80% Median
27 24% 44%  
28 16% 20%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.4%  
24 14% 96%  
25 30% 82%  
26 32% 52% Median
27 14% 20%  
28 5% 6%  
29 1.0% 1.1%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 3% 99.7%  
24 12% 97% Last Result
25 32% 85% Median
26 30% 53%  
27 14% 23%  
28 7% 9%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 4% 99.5%  
23 25% 95% Last Result
24 38% 70% Median
25 21% 32%  
26 8% 11%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.7% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 5% 99.4%  
21 18% 94%  
22 42% 77% Median
23 20% 35%  
24 10% 15%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 8% 97%  
22 26% 89%  
23 37% 63% Last Result, Median
24 19% 26%  
25 6% 7%  
26 0.8% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 17% 98%  
20 27% 81%  
21 34% 54% Median
22 14% 20%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.9% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 5% 97%  
20 19% 92%  
21 42% 73% Median
22 25% 31%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 9% 99.1%  
19 25% 90%  
20 39% 65% Last Result, Median
21 19% 26%  
22 6% 7%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 11% 98%  
18 29% 87%  
19 37% 58% Median
20 16% 20%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 4% 99.8%  
16 17% 96%  
17 43% 79% Median
18 22% 36% Last Result
19 11% 14%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.8%  
14 5% 98.5%  
15 21% 93%  
16 43% 73% Median
17 24% 30%  
18 5% 6% Last Result
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 5% 99.8%  
14 17% 95%  
15 38% 79% Median
16 30% 41%  
17 8% 11% Last Result
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 6% 99.1%  
11 25% 93%  
12 48% 68% Median
13 17% 20%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations