Opinion Poll by MMR, 22 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
20.8% |
19.1–22.6% |
18.7–23.1% |
18.3–23.5% |
17.5–24.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.5% |
15.0–18.2% |
14.6–18.6% |
14.2–19.0% |
13.5–19.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.2% |
11.8–14.7% |
11.5–15.2% |
11.1–15.5% |
10.5–16.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
12.7% |
11.4–14.3% |
11.1–14.7% |
10.7–15.1% |
10.1–15.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.8% |
9.6–12.2% |
9.2–12.6% |
8.9–13.0% |
8.4–13.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.9% |
8.7–11.3% |
8.4–11.7% |
8.1–12.0% |
7.6–12.7% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.8% |
6.8–9.1% |
6.5–9.4% |
6.2–9.7% |
5.8–10.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.1% |
4.8–7.4% |
4.6–7.7% |
4.2–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
12 |
8% |
99.2% |
|
13 |
34% |
92% |
|
14 |
38% |
57% |
Median |
15 |
17% |
20% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
9 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
10 |
59% |
93% |
Median |
11 |
25% |
35% |
|
12 |
7% |
10% |
|
13 |
3% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
10% |
99.4% |
|
8 |
45% |
89% |
Median |
9 |
38% |
45% |
|
10 |
6% |
6% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
7 |
6% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
8 |
8% |
93% |
|
9 |
52% |
85% |
Median |
10 |
32% |
33% |
|
11 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
27% |
98% |
|
7 |
53% |
70% |
Median |
8 |
15% |
17% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
14% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
55% |
86% |
Median |
7 |
28% |
31% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
18% |
98.9% |
|
5 |
64% |
81% |
Median |
6 |
17% |
17% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
9% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
91% |
|
2 |
0% |
91% |
|
3 |
38% |
91% |
|
4 |
49% |
53% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
32 |
58% |
30–34 |
30–34 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
31 |
41% |
30–33 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0.1% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
17–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
17–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
15–21 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–17 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
10–13 |
10–14 |
9–14 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
8% |
98% |
|
31 |
32% |
90% |
Median |
32 |
30% |
58% |
Majority |
33 |
18% |
28% |
|
34 |
7% |
11% |
|
35 |
3% |
4% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
6% |
99.0% |
|
30 |
13% |
93% |
|
31 |
40% |
80% |
Median |
32 |
21% |
41% |
Majority |
33 |
14% |
20% |
Last Result |
34 |
5% |
6% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
10% |
97% |
|
27 |
23% |
87% |
|
28 |
39% |
64% |
Median |
29 |
18% |
25% |
|
30 |
5% |
7% |
|
31 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
5% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
14% |
94% |
Last Result |
26 |
36% |
80% |
Median |
27 |
24% |
44% |
|
28 |
16% |
20% |
|
29 |
4% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
24 |
14% |
96% |
|
25 |
30% |
82% |
|
26 |
32% |
52% |
Median |
27 |
14% |
20% |
|
28 |
5% |
6% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
24 |
12% |
97% |
Last Result |
25 |
32% |
85% |
Median |
26 |
30% |
53% |
|
27 |
14% |
23% |
|
28 |
7% |
9% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
25% |
95% |
Last Result |
24 |
38% |
70% |
Median |
25 |
21% |
32% |
|
26 |
8% |
11% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
21 |
18% |
94% |
|
22 |
42% |
77% |
Median |
23 |
20% |
35% |
|
24 |
10% |
15% |
|
25 |
4% |
5% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
8% |
97% |
|
22 |
26% |
89% |
|
23 |
37% |
63% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
19% |
26% |
|
25 |
6% |
7% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
17% |
98% |
|
20 |
27% |
81% |
|
21 |
34% |
54% |
Median |
22 |
14% |
20% |
|
23 |
4% |
5% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
19 |
5% |
97% |
|
20 |
19% |
92% |
|
21 |
42% |
73% |
Median |
22 |
25% |
31% |
|
23 |
5% |
6% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
9% |
99.1% |
|
19 |
25% |
90% |
|
20 |
39% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
19% |
26% |
|
22 |
6% |
7% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
11% |
98% |
|
18 |
29% |
87% |
|
19 |
37% |
58% |
Median |
20 |
16% |
20% |
|
21 |
3% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
17% |
96% |
|
17 |
43% |
79% |
Median |
18 |
22% |
36% |
Last Result |
19 |
11% |
14% |
|
20 |
3% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
5% |
98.5% |
|
15 |
21% |
93% |
|
16 |
43% |
73% |
Median |
17 |
24% |
30% |
|
18 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
17% |
95% |
|
15 |
38% |
79% |
Median |
16 |
30% |
41% |
|
17 |
8% |
11% |
Last Result |
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
11 |
25% |
93% |
|
12 |
48% |
68% |
Median |
13 |
17% |
20% |
|
14 |
4% |
4% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.22%