Opinion Poll by MMR, 8–12 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
19.8% |
18.3–21.5% |
17.9–22.0% |
17.5–22.4% |
16.8–23.2% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.6% |
15.2–18.2% |
14.8–18.6% |
14.5–19.0% |
13.8–19.7% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
12.1% |
10.9–13.5% |
10.6–13.9% |
10.3–14.2% |
9.7–14.9% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.5% |
10.4–12.9% |
10.0–13.3% |
9.8–13.6% |
9.2–14.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.4% |
10.2–12.7% |
9.8–13.1% |
9.6–13.4% |
9.0–14.1% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.8% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.5–10.3% |
7.2–10.7% |
6.8–11.3% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
7.8% |
6.8–9.0% |
6.6–9.3% |
6.3–9.6% |
5.9–10.2% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
7.3% |
6.4–8.5% |
6.1–8.8% |
5.9–9.1% |
5.5–9.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
10% |
98% |
|
13 |
55% |
87% |
Median |
14 |
24% |
32% |
|
15 |
8% |
8% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
9 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
35% |
96% |
|
11 |
39% |
61% |
Median |
12 |
19% |
22% |
|
13 |
3% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
20% |
98% |
Last Result |
8 |
26% |
78% |
|
9 |
18% |
52% |
Median |
10 |
33% |
33% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
12% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
42% |
88% |
Median |
8 |
37% |
45% |
|
9 |
7% |
8% |
|
10 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
6 |
18% |
99.2% |
Last Result |
7 |
48% |
82% |
Median |
8 |
30% |
34% |
|
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
5% |
100% |
|
5 |
47% |
95% |
Median |
6 |
41% |
48% |
|
7 |
5% |
7% |
|
8 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
4 |
28% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
5 |
60% |
71% |
Median |
6 |
11% |
12% |
|
7 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
48% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
42% |
49% |
|
6 |
6% |
6% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
74% |
30–34 |
30–34 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
19% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–33 |
26–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–21 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–20 |
16–20 |
15–21 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–17 |
12–17 |
12–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
11–15 |
11–15 |
10–16 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
9% |
98% |
|
31 |
15% |
89% |
|
32 |
26% |
74% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
27% |
48% |
Last Result |
34 |
16% |
21% |
|
35 |
4% |
5% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
7% |
95% |
Last Result |
29 |
17% |
88% |
|
30 |
24% |
71% |
Median |
31 |
28% |
47% |
|
32 |
14% |
19% |
Majority |
33 |
5% |
6% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
6% |
98% |
|
26 |
18% |
92% |
|
27 |
26% |
74% |
Median |
28 |
28% |
48% |
|
29 |
15% |
20% |
|
30 |
3% |
4% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
8% |
98.7% |
|
25 |
25% |
91% |
Median |
26 |
28% |
66% |
|
27 |
19% |
38% |
|
28 |
15% |
20% |
|
29 |
4% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
25 |
13% |
96% |
Last Result |
26 |
22% |
83% |
|
27 |
26% |
61% |
Median |
28 |
25% |
35% |
|
29 |
8% |
10% |
|
30 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
7% |
98% |
|
24 |
14% |
91% |
Last Result |
25 |
25% |
76% |
Median |
26 |
31% |
52% |
|
27 |
15% |
20% |
|
28 |
5% |
6% |
|
29 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
23 |
25% |
93% |
Last Result |
24 |
31% |
68% |
Median |
25 |
26% |
36% |
|
26 |
8% |
10% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
14% |
96% |
|
23 |
23% |
82% |
Median |
24 |
31% |
59% |
|
25 |
20% |
28% |
|
26 |
6% |
8% |
Last Result |
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
7% |
99.3% |
|
20 |
12% |
92% |
|
21 |
27% |
80% |
Median |
22 |
31% |
53% |
|
23 |
19% |
23% |
|
24 |
4% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
13% |
97% |
|
21 |
19% |
84% |
|
22 |
32% |
65% |
Median |
23 |
25% |
33% |
Last Result |
24 |
5% |
7% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
13% |
98% |
|
20 |
36% |
85% |
Median |
21 |
22% |
50% |
|
22 |
21% |
28% |
|
23 |
6% |
7% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
9% |
98.6% |
|
18 |
32% |
90% |
Median |
19 |
34% |
58% |
|
20 |
19% |
24% |
|
21 |
4% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
7% |
99.3% |
|
17 |
18% |
93% |
|
18 |
32% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
29% |
42% |
|
20 |
11% |
13% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
17 |
23% |
95% |
|
18 |
40% |
72% |
Median |
19 |
25% |
33% |
|
20 |
7% |
8% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
11% |
98% |
|
15 |
17% |
87% |
|
16 |
31% |
70% |
Median |
17 |
31% |
39% |
|
18 |
7% |
8% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
14% |
97% |
|
14 |
28% |
83% |
Median |
15 |
33% |
55% |
|
16 |
17% |
22% |
|
17 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
11 |
8% |
99.3% |
|
12 |
28% |
92% |
Median |
13 |
33% |
63% |
|
14 |
24% |
30% |
|
15 |
6% |
7% |
|
16 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–12 November 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1048
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.94%