Opinion Poll by MMR, 8–12 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.9–22.0% 17.5–22.4% 16.8–23.2%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.6% 15.2–18.2% 14.8–18.6% 14.5–19.0% 13.8–19.7%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.6–13.9% 10.3–14.2% 9.7–14.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.5% 10.4–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.8–13.6% 9.2–14.3%
Píratar 9.2% 11.4% 10.2–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.6–13.4% 9.0–14.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.5–10.3% 7.2–10.7% 6.8–11.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.6–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.9–10.2%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.5–9.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–15
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 10–12 9–13 9–13
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–8
Viðreisn 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 10% 98%  
13 55% 87% Median
14 24% 32%  
15 8% 8%  
16 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.3% 100%  
9 3% 99.7%  
10 35% 96%  
11 39% 61% Median
12 19% 22%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 20% 98% Last Result
8 26% 78%  
9 18% 52% Median
10 33% 33%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 12% 99.7%  
7 42% 88% Median
8 37% 45%  
9 7% 8%  
10 1.2% 1.2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 18% 99.2% Last Result
7 48% 82% Median
8 30% 34%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100%  
5 47% 95% Median
6 41% 48%  
7 5% 7%  
8 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 28% 99.3% Last Result
5 60% 71% Median
6 11% 12%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 48% 97% Last Result, Median
5 42% 49%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 74% 30–34 30–34 30–35 29–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 30 19% 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 27 0% 25–28 25–29 24–29 23–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 26 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 20 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 18–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–20 15–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 18 0% 17–19 17–20 16–20 15–21
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–14 11–15 11–15 10–16

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 2% 99.7%  
30 9% 98%  
31 15% 89%  
32 26% 74% Median, Majority
33 27% 48% Last Result
34 16% 21%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.0%  
28 7% 95% Last Result
29 17% 88%  
30 24% 71% Median
31 28% 47%  
32 14% 19% Majority
33 5% 6%  
34 0.9% 1.0%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.8%  
25 6% 98%  
26 18% 92%  
27 26% 74% Median
28 28% 48%  
29 15% 20%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.6%  
24 8% 98.7%  
25 25% 91% Median
26 28% 66%  
27 19% 38%  
28 15% 20%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.4%  
25 13% 96% Last Result
26 22% 83%  
27 26% 61% Median
28 25% 35%  
29 8% 10%  
30 1.2% 1.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 7% 98%  
24 14% 91% Last Result
25 25% 76% Median
26 31% 52%  
27 15% 20%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.9% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.9%  
22 6% 98.6%  
23 25% 93% Last Result
24 31% 68% Median
25 26% 36%  
26 8% 10%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.6% 100%  
21 3% 99.4%  
22 14% 96%  
23 23% 82% Median
24 31% 59%  
25 20% 28%  
26 6% 8% Last Result
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 7% 99.3%  
20 12% 92%  
21 27% 80% Median
22 31% 53%  
23 19% 23%  
24 4% 4%  
25 0.6% 0.6%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 3% 99.5%  
20 13% 97%  
21 19% 84%  
22 32% 65% Median
23 25% 33% Last Result
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 13% 98%  
20 36% 85% Median
21 22% 50%  
22 21% 28%  
23 6% 7%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.8%  
17 9% 98.6%  
18 32% 90% Median
19 34% 58%  
20 19% 24%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 7% 99.3%  
17 18% 93%  
18 32% 74% Last Result, Median
19 29% 42%  
20 11% 13%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.3%  
17 23% 95%  
18 40% 72% Median
19 25% 33%  
20 7% 8% Last Result
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.8%  
14 11% 98%  
15 17% 87%  
16 31% 70% Median
17 31% 39%  
18 7% 8% Last Result
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 14% 97%  
14 28% 83% Median
15 33% 55%  
16 17% 22%  
17 5% 5% Last Result
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.7% 100%  
11 8% 99.3%  
12 28% 92% Median
13 33% 63%  
14 24% 30%  
15 6% 7%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations