Opinion Poll by MMR, 21 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.1% 19.4–22.9% 19.0–23.4% 18.6–23.9% 17.8–24.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.3% 14.8–17.9% 14.4–18.4% 14.0–18.8% 13.3–19.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 13.1% 11.7–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.0–15.4% 10.4–16.2%
Píratar 9.2% 11.3% 10.1–12.8% 9.7–13.2% 9.4–13.6% 8.9–14.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.2% 6.9–10.6% 6.4–11.2%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.1% 5.9–9.4% 5.5–10.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–15 12–16 12–16
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 5 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 28% 97%  
14 34% 70% Median
15 31% 36%  
16 4% 5% Last Result
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.7% 100%  
9 7% 99.3%  
10 35% 92%  
11 42% 57% Median
12 13% 15%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 4% 99.8% Last Result
8 10% 96%  
9 18% 87%  
10 66% 69% Median
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 16% 99.0% Last Result
7 43% 83% Median
8 36% 40%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 44% 92% Median
7 40% 48%  
8 7% 8%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 8% 99.9% Last Result
5 53% 92% Median
6 35% 39%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 40% 98% Last Result
5 49% 58% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 2% 99.9%  
4 48% 98% Median
5 43% 49%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 43% 30–33 29–33 29–34 27–34
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 30 12% 28–32 27–32 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 0.2% 27–30 26–30 26–30 25–31
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 27 0% 25–28 25–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–26 23–26 22–27 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 22–25 22–25 21–26 20–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 18–25
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 18–21 18–21 17–21 17–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 14 0% 12–15 12–15 12–16 11–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 11 0% 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–14

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.7% 100%  
28 2% 99.2%  
29 8% 98%  
30 15% 90%  
31 33% 76% Median
32 30% 43% Majority
33 11% 13% Last Result
34 2% 3%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.4% 99.9%  
27 6% 98%  
28 13% 93% Last Result
29 18% 79% Median
30 31% 61%  
31 18% 30%  
32 10% 12% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 7% 98%  
27 19% 91%  
28 32% 72% Median
29 26% 39%  
30 11% 14%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.0%  
25 13% 95% Last Result
26 24% 83%  
27 31% 59% Median
28 23% 28%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.8%  
23 6% 98.6%  
24 25% 93% Median
25 31% 68%  
26 25% 36%  
27 9% 12%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 6% 98%  
23 18% 92%  
24 24% 74% Last Result, Median
25 28% 50%  
26 18% 22%  
27 4% 4%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 11% 97% Last Result
24 25% 87%  
25 39% 62% Median
26 18% 23%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.0%  
22 13% 95%  
23 25% 82% Last Result
24 33% 57% Median
25 22% 25%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.4%  
20 11% 96%  
21 28% 85% Median
22 33% 56%  
23 18% 24%  
24 5% 6%  
25 1.0% 1.1%  
26 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.0%  
19 12% 96%  
20 30% 84% Median
21 35% 54%  
22 15% 19%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 12% 97%  
20 34% 85% Median
21 34% 52%  
22 14% 18%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 13% 98%  
18 33% 85% Median
19 31% 52%  
20 18% 21%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 3% 99.6%  
18 14% 97%  
19 36% 82% Median
20 32% 46% Last Result
21 12% 15%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.9%  
15 6% 99.1%  
16 22% 93%  
17 32% 71% Median
18 30% 39% Last Result
19 8% 10%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 7% 98%  
15 16% 91%  
16 40% 74% Median
17 30% 35%  
18 4% 5% Last Result
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 11% 98%  
13 25% 87% Median
14 39% 62%  
15 20% 23%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 4% 99.8%  
10 26% 95% Median
11 41% 70%  
12 22% 28%  
13 6% 7%  
14 0.8% 0.9%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations