Opinion Poll by Maskína, 30 November–3 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin 12.1% 19.7% 18.3–21.1% 17.9–21.6% 17.6–21.9% 17.0–22.6%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 19.3% 18.0–20.8% 17.6–21.2% 17.3–21.5% 16.6–22.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.9% 13.7–16.2% 13.3–16.6% 13.0–16.9% 12.5–17.6%
Píratar 9.2% 14.9% 13.7–16.2% 13.3–16.6% 13.0–16.9% 12.5–17.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 13.4% 12.3–14.7% 12.0–15.1% 11.7–15.4% 11.2–16.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.8% 7.8–9.9% 7.6–10.2% 7.4–10.4% 6.9–11.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 4.6% 3.9–5.4% 3.7–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.3–6.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.4% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.2–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin 7 14 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Píratar 6 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 8–12
Viðreisn 4 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 4–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 14% 99.4%  
13 33% 85%  
14 45% 52% Median
15 6% 7%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 19% 98%  
13 33% 78% Median
14 38% 45%  
15 7% 7%  
16 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 20% 98%  
10 60% 78% Median
11 16% 18% Last Result
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 22% 98%  
10 55% 77% Median
11 18% 21%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 22% 98%  
9 57% 76% Median
10 18% 20%  
11 1.5% 1.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 31% 98%  
6 58% 67% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 38% 63% Median
2 3% 25%  
3 19% 22%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 1.3% 17%  
2 0.1% 15%  
3 14% 15%  
4 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 43 100% 41–44 40–44 39–45 38–45
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 34 93% 32–35 31–35 31–36 30–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 20% 29–32 28–32 28–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 1.0% 27–30 27–31 27–31 26–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 29 1.2% 28–30 27–31 26–31 26–32
Samfylkingin – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 23 27 0% 25–28 25–28 24–29 24–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 22–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 24 0% 22–24 22–25 21–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 20 0% 19–22 18–22 18–23 17–23
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 20 0% 19–21 18–22 18–22 17–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 18–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 17 0% 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 14–17 14–17 14–18 13–18
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 14 0% 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 10–13 9–14 9–14 9–14

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 6% 97%  
41 14% 91%  
42 22% 76%  
43 38% 54% Median
44 12% 16%  
45 4% 4%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.8%  
31 6% 98.6%  
32 13% 93% Majority
33 25% 79%  
34 41% 54% Median
35 10% 13%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 4% 98%  
29 18% 94%  
30 42% 76%  
31 14% 34% Median
32 15% 20% Majority
33 4% 5% Last Result
34 0.6% 0.6%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 2% 99.8%  
27 12% 98%  
28 26% 86%  
29 17% 61% Median
30 35% 44%  
31 8% 9%  
32 0.9% 1.0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9% Last Result
27 6% 97%  
28 18% 92%  
29 32% 73%  
30 33% 42% Median
31 8% 9%  
32 1.0% 1.2% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100% Last Result
24 2% 99.7%  
25 18% 97%  
26 21% 79%  
27 25% 58% Median
28 28% 33%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 3% 99.8%  
23 14% 97%  
24 43% 83%  
25 18% 40% Last Result, Median
26 13% 23%  
27 9% 10%  
28 1.1% 1.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 3% 99.7%  
22 16% 97%  
23 28% 81%  
24 43% 52% Median
25 8% 10%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 7% 99.6%  
22 21% 93%  
23 25% 72% Median
24 36% 47%  
25 9% 11%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 6% 99.2% Last Result
21 20% 93%  
22 26% 73% Median
23 36% 47%  
24 9% 11%  
25 1.3% 1.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.6% 100%  
18 8% 99.3%  
19 17% 92%  
20 41% 75% Median
21 20% 33%  
22 10% 13%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
18 6% 99.5%  
19 22% 94%  
20 48% 71% Median
21 16% 24%  
22 7% 8%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 8% 99.2%  
18 26% 92%  
19 25% 66% Median
20 36% 41%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 4% 99.9%  
15 8% 96%  
16 35% 88%  
17 24% 54% Median
18 18% 30%  
19 9% 12%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 9% 98%  
15 25% 90%  
16 50% 64% Median
17 11% 14%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 17% 97%  
14 41% 80% Median
15 20% 40%  
16 15% 20%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.9% 0.9%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 6% 99.9%  
10 32% 94%  
11 31% 62% Median
12 14% 31%  
13 12% 18%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations