Opinion Poll by Zenter, 3–4 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.4% 20.0–23.0% 19.6–23.4% 19.2–23.8% 18.6–24.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 20.8% 19.4–22.3% 19.0–22.7% 18.6–23.1% 18.0–23.9%
Píratar 9.2% 14.4% 13.2–15.7% 12.8–16.1% 12.6–16.4% 12.0–17.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.7% 11.6–14.0% 11.3–14.4% 11.0–14.7% 10.5–15.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.1% 8.1–10.2% 7.8–10.5% 7.6–10.8% 7.2–11.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.5% 7.6–9.6% 7.3–9.9% 7.1–10.2% 6.7–10.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.7% 4.9–6.6% 4.7–6.9% 4.5–7.1% 4.2–7.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 4.3% 3.6–5.1% 3.4–5.3% 3.3–5.5% 3.0–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 13–17
Samfylkingin 7 14 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Píratar 6 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 6% 99.7%  
14 34% 93%  
15 39% 59% Median
16 16% 20% Last Result
17 4% 4%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 17% 97%  
14 37% 80% Median
15 32% 43%  
16 10% 12%  
17 1.2% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 4% 99.9%  
9 35% 96%  
10 44% 61% Median
11 15% 17%  
12 1.3% 1.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 9% 99.9%  
8 38% 91%  
9 30% 53% Median
10 22% 23%  
11 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100% Last Result
5 23% 99.7%  
6 62% 77% Median
7 15% 15%  
8 0.8% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 44% 96%  
6 45% 52% Median
7 6% 7%  
8 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0.1% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 38% 89%  
4 49% 51% Last Result, Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 40% 53% Median
2 0.5% 13%  
3 12% 12%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 39 100% 37–40 37–41 36–42 35–43
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 33 84% 31–34 31–35 30–36 29–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 5% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 3% 27–31 27–31 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 4% 27–31 27–31 27–32 26–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 29 1.2% 27–30 27–31 26–31 26–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 22–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 21–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 23 0% 22–24 21–25 21–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 18–24
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 16–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 15 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 15 0% 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–16 12–16 12–16 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 9 0% 8–11 8–11 8–13 7–13

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 1.0% 99.9%  
36 4% 98.9%  
37 13% 95%  
38 26% 82%  
39 31% 56% Median
40 17% 25%  
41 5% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.8% 0.9%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 4% 99.4%  
31 11% 95%  
32 23% 84% Majority
33 35% 62% Median
34 20% 26%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.5%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 6% 99.4%  
28 19% 94%  
29 33% 75%  
30 24% 42% Median
31 13% 18%  
32 4% 5% Majority
33 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 2% 99.8%  
27 11% 98%  
28 26% 87%  
29 27% 61%  
30 19% 34% Median
31 12% 15%  
32 2% 3% Majority
33 0.7% 0.7%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 8% 98%  
28 21% 90%  
29 33% 69% Median
30 22% 36%  
31 10% 14%  
32 3% 4% Majority
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 4% 99.5% Last Result
27 16% 96%  
28 26% 80%  
29 34% 54% Median
30 14% 19%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.9% 1.2% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 14% 98%  
23 24% 85%  
24 36% 60% Median
25 15% 24% Last Result
26 7% 9%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 5% 99.6%  
22 18% 95%  
23 34% 77%  
24 22% 43% Median
25 14% 22%  
26 7% 7%  
27 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.9%  
21 8% 98.7%  
22 23% 91%  
23 34% 68% Median
24 27% 34%  
25 5% 7%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 9% 99.5%  
20 22% 91%  
21 36% 68%  
22 17% 32% Median
23 11% 15%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.6% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.9%  
19 12% 98.8%  
20 33% 87% Last Result
21 30% 54% Median
22 18% 24%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.8% 0.8%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 3% 99.8%  
19 17% 97%  
20 43% 80%  
21 23% 37% Median
22 10% 14%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 5% 99.7%  
17 16% 95% Last Result
18 31% 78%  
19 29% 47% Median
20 15% 18%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 18% 98%  
15 32% 80%  
16 29% 49% Median
17 13% 20%  
18 5% 7%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 9% 99.4%  
14 26% 90%  
15 34% 64%  
16 17% 30% Median
17 10% 13%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 5% 99.6%  
13 22% 94%  
14 32% 73%  
15 28% 41% Median
16 12% 13%  
17 0.8% 0.8%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.2% 100%  
8 18% 98.8%  
9 41% 81%  
10 21% 40% Median
11 13% 18%  
12 2% 5%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations