Opinion Poll by Zenter, 3–4 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.4% |
20.0–23.0% |
19.6–23.4% |
19.2–23.8% |
18.6–24.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
20.8% |
19.4–22.3% |
19.0–22.7% |
18.6–23.1% |
18.0–23.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
14.4% |
13.2–15.7% |
12.8–16.1% |
12.6–16.4% |
12.0–17.1% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.7% |
11.6–14.0% |
11.3–14.4% |
11.0–14.7% |
10.5–15.3% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.1% |
8.1–10.2% |
7.8–10.5% |
7.6–10.8% |
7.2–11.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.5% |
7.6–9.6% |
7.3–9.9% |
7.1–10.2% |
6.7–10.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.7% |
4.9–6.6% |
4.7–6.9% |
4.5–7.1% |
4.2–7.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
4.3% |
3.6–5.1% |
3.4–5.3% |
3.3–5.5% |
3.0–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
34% |
93% |
|
15 |
39% |
59% |
Median |
16 |
16% |
20% |
Last Result |
17 |
4% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
17% |
97% |
|
14 |
37% |
80% |
Median |
15 |
32% |
43% |
|
16 |
10% |
12% |
|
17 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
35% |
96% |
|
10 |
44% |
61% |
Median |
11 |
15% |
17% |
|
12 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
38% |
91% |
|
9 |
30% |
53% |
Median |
10 |
22% |
23% |
|
11 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
23% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
62% |
77% |
Median |
7 |
15% |
15% |
|
8 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
4% |
100% |
|
5 |
44% |
96% |
|
6 |
45% |
52% |
Median |
7 |
6% |
7% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
2 |
0% |
89% |
|
3 |
38% |
89% |
|
4 |
49% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
47% |
100% |
|
1 |
40% |
53% |
Median |
2 |
0.5% |
13% |
|
3 |
12% |
12% |
|
4 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
39 |
100% |
37–40 |
37–41 |
36–42 |
35–43 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
33 |
84% |
31–34 |
31–35 |
30–36 |
29–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
5% |
28–31 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
29 |
3% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
4% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
29 |
1.2% |
27–30 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
13–17 |
13–18 |
12–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
12–16 |
12–16 |
12–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
9 |
0% |
8–11 |
8–11 |
8–13 |
7–13 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
37 |
13% |
95% |
|
38 |
26% |
82% |
|
39 |
31% |
56% |
Median |
40 |
17% |
25% |
|
41 |
5% |
8% |
|
42 |
2% |
3% |
|
43 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
31 |
11% |
95% |
|
32 |
23% |
84% |
Majority |
33 |
35% |
62% |
Median |
34 |
20% |
26% |
|
35 |
4% |
6% |
|
36 |
2% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
27 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
19% |
94% |
|
29 |
33% |
75% |
|
30 |
24% |
42% |
Median |
31 |
13% |
18% |
|
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
11% |
98% |
|
28 |
26% |
87% |
|
29 |
27% |
61% |
|
30 |
19% |
34% |
Median |
31 |
12% |
15% |
|
32 |
2% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
8% |
98% |
|
28 |
21% |
90% |
|
29 |
33% |
69% |
Median |
30 |
22% |
36% |
|
31 |
10% |
14% |
|
32 |
3% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
27 |
16% |
96% |
|
28 |
26% |
80% |
|
29 |
34% |
54% |
Median |
30 |
14% |
19% |
|
31 |
4% |
5% |
|
32 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
14% |
98% |
|
23 |
24% |
85% |
|
24 |
36% |
60% |
Median |
25 |
15% |
24% |
Last Result |
26 |
7% |
9% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
18% |
95% |
|
23 |
34% |
77% |
|
24 |
22% |
43% |
Median |
25 |
14% |
22% |
|
26 |
7% |
7% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
8% |
98.7% |
|
22 |
23% |
91% |
|
23 |
34% |
68% |
Median |
24 |
27% |
34% |
|
25 |
5% |
7% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
19 |
9% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
22% |
91% |
|
21 |
36% |
68% |
|
22 |
17% |
32% |
Median |
23 |
11% |
15% |
|
24 |
3% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
12% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
33% |
87% |
Last Result |
21 |
30% |
54% |
Median |
22 |
18% |
24% |
|
23 |
5% |
6% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
17% |
97% |
|
20 |
43% |
80% |
|
21 |
23% |
37% |
Median |
22 |
10% |
14% |
|
23 |
3% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
16% |
95% |
Last Result |
18 |
31% |
78% |
|
19 |
29% |
47% |
Median |
20 |
15% |
18% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
2% |
100% |
|
14 |
18% |
98% |
|
15 |
32% |
80% |
|
16 |
29% |
49% |
Median |
17 |
13% |
20% |
|
18 |
5% |
7% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
9% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
26% |
90% |
|
15 |
34% |
64% |
|
16 |
17% |
30% |
Median |
17 |
10% |
13% |
|
18 |
3% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
12 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
22% |
94% |
|
14 |
32% |
73% |
|
15 |
28% |
41% |
Median |
16 |
12% |
13% |
|
17 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
18% |
98.8% |
|
9 |
41% |
81% |
|
10 |
21% |
40% |
Median |
11 |
13% |
18% |
|
12 |
2% |
5% |
|
13 |
2% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Zenter
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–4 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1265
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.93%