Opinion Poll by MMR, 5–11 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.1% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.8% 18.8–25.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.1–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.0–20.2%
Píratar 9.2% 14.4% 13.0–15.9% 12.6–16.3% 12.3–16.7% 11.7–17.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.2% 10.4–15.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.5% 11.2–14.0% 10.9–14.4% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.2–8.2%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 13–18
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Píratar 6 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–4 1–5 0–5 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 7% 99.6%  
14 26% 92%  
15 36% 67% Median
16 24% 31% Last Result
17 6% 7%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 100%  
10 14% 99.2%  
11 40% 85% Median
12 35% 45%  
13 9% 10%  
14 1.4% 1.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.3% 100%  
8 8% 99.7%  
9 36% 92%  
10 40% 56% Median
11 14% 15%  
12 1.0% 1.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 6% 99.8%  
8 44% 94%  
9 37% 50% Median
10 12% 13%  
11 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 9% 99.6%  
8 36% 91% Last Result
9 10% 55% Median
10 43% 45%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100% Last Result
5 44% 95%  
6 44% 51% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 7% 97%  
2 0.1% 90%  
3 24% 90%  
4 58% 66% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Median
1 0% 14%  
2 0% 14%  
3 12% 14%  
4 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 35 99.6% 33–37 33–38 32–38 32–39
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 76% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 79% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 30 9% 28–31 28–32 27–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 29 4% 27–31 27–31 26–32 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 19–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–23 19–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–22 18–22 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 19 0% 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 18 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 11–13 10–14 9–14 9–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.4% 100%  
32 2% 99.6% Majority
33 9% 97%  
34 21% 89%  
35 29% 68%  
36 23% 39% Median
37 11% 16%  
38 5% 6%  
39 0.9% 1.1%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 6% 98%  
31 16% 92%  
32 29% 76% Majority
33 22% 47% Last Result, Median
34 19% 25%  
35 5% 6%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.1% 99.9%  
30 5% 98.8%  
31 15% 93%  
32 30% 79% Majority
33 29% 49% Median
34 14% 20%  
35 4% 5% Last Result
36 1.3% 1.5%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.3%  
28 14% 95%  
29 29% 81%  
30 28% 52% Median
31 16% 24%  
32 6% 9% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 3% 99.4% Last Result
27 12% 96%  
28 24% 84%  
29 26% 60% Median
30 23% 35%  
31 8% 12%  
32 3% 4% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 7% 98%  
26 14% 91%  
27 28% 77%  
28 28% 49% Median
29 18% 21%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
24 6% 99.0%  
25 18% 93%  
26 30% 75% Median
27 25% 45%  
28 16% 21%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.9% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 9% 97%  
23 23% 87%  
24 33% 64% Last Result, Median
25 24% 31%  
26 6% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 2% 99.3%  
21 5% 98%  
22 14% 93%  
23 23% 79%  
24 36% 56% Median
25 14% 20% Last Result
26 5% 7%  
27 1.0% 1.1%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.7% 100%  
21 4% 99.3%  
22 19% 96%  
23 25% 76%  
24 28% 51% Median
25 15% 23%  
26 7% 8%  
27 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.0%  
19 9% 97%  
20 23% 88%  
21 28% 66%  
22 26% 38% Median
23 10% 12%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 4% 99.6%  
19 15% 96%  
20 31% 81% Last Result
21 29% 49% Median
22 15% 20%  
23 5% 5%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.9%  
18 8% 98.9% Last Result
19 24% 91%  
20 38% 67% Median
21 18% 29%  
22 9% 11%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 5% 98%  
17 14% 92%  
18 25% 78%  
19 31% 53% Median
20 16% 22%  
21 5% 6%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 5% 99.4%  
17 22% 94% Last Result
18 31% 72%  
19 30% 41% Median
20 9% 12%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 4% 99.8%  
16 19% 96%  
17 23% 77%  
18 33% 53% Median
19 16% 20% Last Result
20 3% 4%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 6% 96%  
11 14% 90%  
12 37% 76%  
13 29% 39% Median
14 8% 9%  
15 1.3% 1.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations