Opinion Poll by MMR, 4–14 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.2% |
21.1–23.4% |
20.8–23.8% |
20.5–24.1% |
20.0–24.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.0% |
14.0–16.0% |
13.7–16.3% |
13.5–16.6% |
13.1–17.1% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.8% |
12.8–14.8% |
12.6–15.1% |
12.4–15.3% |
11.9–15.8% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.7% |
10.8–12.7% |
10.6–12.9% |
10.4–13.2% |
10.0–13.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.3% |
10.5–12.3% |
10.2–12.5% |
10.0–12.7% |
9.6–13.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
7.8% |
7.1–8.6% |
6.9–8.9% |
6.7–9.1% |
6.4–9.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.9% |
6.2–7.7% |
6.0–7.9% |
5.9–8.1% |
5.6–8.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.7% |
6.0–7.5% |
5.9–7.7% |
5.7–7.9% |
5.4–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
3% |
100% |
|
14 |
32% |
97% |
|
15 |
44% |
66% |
Median |
16 |
20% |
22% |
Last Result |
17 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
9 |
16% |
99.1% |
|
10 |
73% |
83% |
Median |
11 |
10% |
10% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
8 |
20% |
99.7% |
|
9 |
62% |
79% |
Median |
10 |
17% |
17% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
8% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
74% |
92% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
15% |
18% |
|
10 |
3% |
3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
6% |
100% |
|
7 |
53% |
94% |
Median |
8 |
40% |
41% |
|
9 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
20% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
71% |
80% |
Median |
6 |
8% |
9% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
2% |
100% |
|
4 |
69% |
98% |
Median |
5 |
28% |
28% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
5% |
100% |
|
4 |
80% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
15% |
15% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
31 |
41% |
30–32 |
29–33 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
30 |
7% |
29–31 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
28–33 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
2% |
29–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
27–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
25–30 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
22–25 |
21–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
22 |
0% |
21–22 |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
18–21 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–20 |
18–21 |
17–21 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–19 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
15 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
29 |
6% |
98% |
|
30 |
17% |
92% |
|
31 |
33% |
75% |
Median |
32 |
34% |
41% |
Majority |
33 |
7% |
7% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
15% |
98% |
|
30 |
37% |
83% |
Median |
31 |
39% |
45% |
|
32 |
6% |
7% |
Majority |
33 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
7% |
98% |
|
29 |
30% |
91% |
Median |
30 |
45% |
61% |
|
31 |
14% |
16% |
|
32 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
18% |
98% |
|
27 |
42% |
81% |
Median |
28 |
32% |
39% |
|
29 |
6% |
7% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
25 |
16% |
95% |
|
26 |
34% |
79% |
Median |
27 |
39% |
45% |
|
28 |
6% |
6% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
12% |
98% |
|
25 |
39% |
86% |
Median |
26 |
39% |
47% |
Last Result |
27 |
8% |
9% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
23 |
8% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
24 |
28% |
91% |
|
25 |
42% |
64% |
Median |
26 |
19% |
21% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
25% |
98% |
|
23 |
49% |
73% |
Median |
24 |
21% |
24% |
Last Result |
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
21 |
18% |
97% |
|
22 |
38% |
79% |
Median |
23 |
35% |
41% |
|
24 |
5% |
6% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
6% |
97% |
|
21 |
34% |
91% |
Median |
22 |
48% |
57% |
|
23 |
8% |
9% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
18 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
33% |
93% |
Median |
20 |
43% |
60% |
|
21 |
15% |
18% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
24% |
98% |
|
19 |
39% |
74% |
Median |
20 |
31% |
35% |
|
21 |
5% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
18 |
8% |
99.3% |
|
19 |
28% |
91% |
|
20 |
45% |
63% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
16% |
18% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
11% |
98% |
|
17 |
45% |
87% |
Median |
18 |
39% |
42% |
Last Result |
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
13% |
97% |
|
16 |
39% |
84% |
Median |
17 |
40% |
45% |
Last Result |
18 |
5% |
5% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
14 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
15 |
46% |
92% |
Median |
16 |
35% |
46% |
|
17 |
10% |
11% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
10 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
11 |
38% |
94% |
Median |
12 |
46% |
57% |
|
13 |
11% |
11% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–14 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2061
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.39%