Opinion Poll by MMR, 4–14 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.2% 21.1–23.4% 20.8–23.8% 20.5–24.1% 20.0–24.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Píratar 9.2% 13.8% 12.8–14.8% 12.6–15.1% 12.4–15.3% 11.9–15.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.7% 10.8–12.7% 10.6–12.9% 10.4–13.2% 10.0–13.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.3% 10.5–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 10.0–12.7% 9.6–13.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.8% 7.1–8.6% 6.9–8.9% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 8–9 7–9 7–10 7–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Viðreisn 4 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 3% 100%  
14 32% 97%  
15 44% 66% Median
16 20% 22% Last Result
17 1.3% 1.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.9% 100%  
9 16% 99.1%  
10 73% 83% Median
11 10% 10%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.3% 100%  
8 20% 99.7%  
9 62% 79% Median
10 17% 17%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 8% 99.6%  
8 74% 92% Last Result, Median
9 15% 18%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 6% 100%  
7 53% 94% Median
8 40% 41%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 20% 100% Last Result
5 71% 80% Median
6 8% 9%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 69% 98% Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100%  
4 80% 95% Last Result, Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 31 41% 30–32 29–33 29–33 28–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 30 7% 29–31 29–32 29–32 28–33
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 2% 29–31 28–31 28–31 27–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–28 26–29 26–29 25–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 25–27 24–28 24–28 23–28
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 25 0% 24–26 24–27 24–27 23–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–25 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 21–23 21–24 20–24 19–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 21–22 20–23 19–23 19–24
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 19 0% 18–20 18–20 18–21 17–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–17 15–18 14–18 14–18
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 15 0% 15–17 14–17 14–17 14–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–13

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.7% Last Result
29 6% 98%  
30 17% 92%  
31 33% 75% Median
32 34% 41% Majority
33 7% 7%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 15% 98%  
30 37% 83% Median
31 39% 45%  
32 6% 7% Majority
33 0.7% 0.7%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 7% 98%  
29 30% 91% Median
30 45% 61%  
31 14% 16%  
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 18% 98%  
27 42% 81% Median
28 32% 39%  
29 6% 7%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.3% Last Result
25 16% 95%  
26 34% 79% Median
27 39% 45%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 12% 98%  
25 39% 86% Median
26 39% 47% Last Result
27 8% 9%  
28 0.7% 0.7%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.5% 100%  
23 8% 99.5% Last Result
24 28% 91%  
25 42% 64% Median
26 19% 21%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 25% 98%  
23 49% 73% Median
24 21% 24% Last Result
25 3% 3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.6% 100%  
20 2% 99.4%  
21 18% 97%  
22 38% 79% Median
23 35% 41%  
24 5% 6%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 3% 99.8%  
20 6% 97%  
21 34% 91% Median
22 48% 57%  
23 8% 9%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 6% 99.5%  
19 33% 93% Median
20 43% 60%  
21 15% 18%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 24% 98%  
19 39% 74% Median
20 31% 35%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.7% 100%  
18 8% 99.3%  
19 28% 91%  
20 45% 63% Last Result, Median
21 16% 18%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 11% 98%  
17 45% 87% Median
18 39% 42% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 13% 97%  
16 39% 84% Median
17 40% 45% Last Result
18 5% 5%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 8% 99.7%  
15 46% 92% Median
16 35% 46%  
17 10% 11%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 5% 99.6%  
11 38% 94% Median
12 46% 57%  
13 11% 11%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations