Opinion Poll by MMR, 28 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.8% |
20.1–23.6% |
19.6–24.1% |
19.2–24.6% |
18.4–25.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.5% |
14.0–17.1% |
13.6–17.6% |
13.3–18.0% |
12.6–18.8% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
12.6% |
11.3–14.2% |
10.9–14.6% |
10.6–15.0% |
10.0–15.7% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.2% |
10.9–13.7% |
10.5–14.1% |
10.2–14.5% |
9.6–15.2% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.0% |
10.7–13.5% |
10.3–13.9% |
10.0–14.3% |
9.4–15.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.2% |
8.1–10.6% |
7.8–11.0% |
7.5–11.3% |
7.0–12.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.2% |
7.2–9.5% |
6.9–9.9% |
6.6–10.2% |
6.1–10.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.4% |
4.5–6.5% |
4.3–6.8% |
4.1–7.1% |
3.7–7.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
19% |
98.6% |
|
14 |
30% |
79% |
Median |
15 |
33% |
50% |
|
16 |
12% |
17% |
Last Result |
17 |
4% |
5% |
|
18 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
15% |
98% |
|
10 |
47% |
82% |
Median |
11 |
28% |
35% |
|
12 |
6% |
7% |
|
13 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
7 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
8 |
39% |
96% |
Last Result |
9 |
23% |
56% |
Median |
10 |
28% |
33% |
|
11 |
5% |
6% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
26% |
97% |
|
8 |
46% |
71% |
Median |
9 |
18% |
25% |
|
10 |
8% |
8% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
7 |
30% |
95% |
|
8 |
49% |
66% |
Median |
9 |
14% |
16% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
29% |
98.6% |
|
6 |
52% |
70% |
Median |
7 |
16% |
17% |
|
8 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
14% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
56% |
86% |
Median |
6 |
27% |
30% |
|
7 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
26% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
74% |
|
2 |
0% |
74% |
|
3 |
47% |
74% |
Median |
4 |
26% |
27% |
Last Result |
5 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
72% |
31–34 |
30–35 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
32 |
59% |
30–34 |
30–35 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
31 |
43% |
30–33 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
3% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
25–32 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
24–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
17–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
15–22 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–15 |
11–16 |
10–16 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
30 |
7% |
98% |
|
31 |
19% |
91% |
|
32 |
29% |
72% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
22% |
43% |
Last Result |
34 |
14% |
21% |
|
35 |
5% |
7% |
|
36 |
2% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
29 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
30 |
11% |
96% |
|
31 |
25% |
84% |
|
32 |
28% |
59% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
16% |
31% |
|
34 |
9% |
15% |
|
35 |
5% |
6% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
19% |
95% |
|
31 |
33% |
76% |
Median |
32 |
24% |
43% |
Majority |
33 |
12% |
19% |
|
34 |
5% |
7% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
27 |
17% |
96% |
|
28 |
31% |
79% |
Median |
29 |
26% |
48% |
|
30 |
12% |
22% |
|
31 |
7% |
10% |
Last Result |
32 |
3% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
8% |
97% |
|
26 |
22% |
89% |
Last Result |
27 |
27% |
67% |
Median |
28 |
23% |
40% |
|
29 |
11% |
16% |
|
30 |
4% |
5% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
9% |
97% |
Last Result |
25 |
21% |
88% |
|
26 |
35% |
67% |
Median |
27 |
18% |
32% |
|
28 |
11% |
15% |
|
29 |
3% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
23 |
17% |
96% |
Last Result |
24 |
22% |
79% |
Median |
25 |
30% |
57% |
|
26 |
15% |
27% |
|
27 |
9% |
11% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
22 |
15% |
95% |
|
23 |
39% |
80% |
Median |
24 |
24% |
41% |
Last Result |
25 |
10% |
17% |
|
26 |
6% |
7% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
22 |
18% |
95% |
|
23 |
32% |
76% |
Median |
24 |
24% |
44% |
|
25 |
14% |
20% |
Last Result |
26 |
5% |
7% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
9% |
98% |
|
21 |
24% |
89% |
|
22 |
29% |
66% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
37% |
|
24 |
12% |
15% |
|
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
5% |
99.3% |
|
21 |
18% |
94% |
|
22 |
27% |
76% |
Median |
23 |
26% |
49% |
|
24 |
16% |
23% |
|
25 |
6% |
8% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
18 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
19 |
19% |
94% |
|
20 |
31% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
27% |
44% |
|
22 |
12% |
17% |
|
23 |
4% |
5% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
16% |
95% |
|
19 |
21% |
79% |
Median |
20 |
33% |
58% |
|
21 |
17% |
25% |
|
22 |
6% |
8% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
16 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
17 |
21% |
93% |
|
18 |
32% |
72% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
26% |
40% |
|
20 |
10% |
14% |
|
21 |
3% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
10% |
98% |
|
16 |
28% |
88% |
|
17 |
25% |
60% |
Median |
18 |
25% |
35% |
|
19 |
8% |
10% |
Last Result |
20 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
10% |
98% |
|
15 |
27% |
88% |
|
16 |
38% |
61% |
Median |
17 |
15% |
24% |
Last Result |
18 |
7% |
8% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
11 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
12 |
24% |
96% |
|
13 |
33% |
72% |
Median |
14 |
27% |
39% |
|
15 |
9% |
12% |
|
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.19%