Opinion Poll by MMR, 28 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.8% 20.1–23.6% 19.6–24.1% 19.2–24.6% 18.4–25.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.5% 14.0–17.1% 13.6–17.6% 13.3–18.0% 12.6–18.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.6% 11.3–14.2% 10.9–14.6% 10.6–15.0% 10.0–15.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.2% 10.9–13.7% 10.5–14.1% 10.2–14.5% 9.6–15.2%
Píratar 9.2% 12.0% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–13.9% 10.0–14.3% 9.4–15.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.2% 8.1–10.6% 7.8–11.0% 7.5–11.3% 7.0–12.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.2% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.9% 6.6–10.2% 6.1–10.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.4% 4.5–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.7–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 9–12 9–12 8–13
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 6–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.9%  
13 19% 98.6%  
14 30% 79% Median
15 33% 50%  
16 12% 17% Last Result
17 4% 5%  
18 1.0% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 2% 99.9%  
9 15% 98%  
10 47% 82% Median
11 28% 35%  
12 6% 7%  
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 4% 99.5%  
8 39% 96% Last Result
9 23% 56% Median
10 28% 33%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 26% 97%  
8 46% 71% Median
9 18% 25%  
10 8% 8%  
11 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8% Last Result
7 30% 95%  
8 49% 66% Median
9 14% 16%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.4% 100% Last Result
5 29% 98.6%  
6 52% 70% Median
7 16% 17%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 14% 99.9%  
5 56% 86% Median
6 27% 30%  
7 3% 3% Last Result
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 0% 74%  
2 0% 74%  
3 47% 74% Median
4 26% 27% Last Result
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 72% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 32 59% 30–34 30–35 29–35 28–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 31 43% 30–33 29–34 29–34 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 3% 27–31 27–31 26–32 25–32
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 27 0% 25–29 25–29 24–30 24–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 21–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 18–21 18–22 17–22 17–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 17 0% 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 12–15 12–15 11–16 10–16

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 7% 98%  
31 19% 91%  
32 29% 72% Median, Majority
33 22% 43% Last Result
34 14% 21%  
35 5% 7%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
29 3% 99.1%  
30 11% 96%  
31 25% 84%  
32 28% 59% Median, Majority
33 16% 31%  
34 9% 15%  
35 5% 6%  
36 0.8% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.9%  
29 4% 98.8%  
30 19% 95%  
31 33% 76% Median
32 24% 43% Majority
33 12% 19%  
34 5% 7%  
35 2% 2% Last Result
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.1%  
27 17% 96%  
28 31% 79% Median
29 26% 48%  
30 12% 22%  
31 7% 10% Last Result
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 3% 99.6%  
25 8% 97%  
26 22% 89% Last Result
27 27% 67% Median
28 23% 40%  
29 11% 16%  
30 4% 5%  
31 0.7% 0.7%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.6%  
24 9% 97% Last Result
25 21% 88%  
26 35% 67% Median
27 18% 32%  
28 11% 15%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 3% 99.4%  
23 17% 96% Last Result
24 22% 79% Median
25 30% 57%  
26 15% 27%  
27 9% 11%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.3%  
22 15% 95%  
23 39% 80% Median
24 24% 41% Last Result
25 10% 17%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.8% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.8%  
21 4% 99.0%  
22 18% 95%  
23 32% 76% Median
24 24% 44%  
25 14% 20% Last Result
26 5% 7%  
27 1.2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 9% 98%  
21 24% 89%  
22 29% 66% Median
23 22% 37%  
24 12% 15%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 5% 99.3%  
21 18% 94%  
22 27% 76% Median
23 26% 49%  
24 16% 23%  
25 6% 8%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.6% 100%  
18 6% 99.4%  
19 19% 94%  
20 31% 75% Last Result, Median
21 27% 44%  
22 12% 17%  
23 4% 5%  
24 1.1% 1.3%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 4% 99.9%  
18 16% 95%  
19 21% 79% Median
20 33% 58%  
21 17% 25%  
22 6% 8%  
23 2% 2% Last Result
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.9% 100%  
16 6% 99.1%  
17 21% 93%  
18 32% 72% Last Result, Median
19 26% 40%  
20 10% 14%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 10% 98%  
16 28% 88%  
17 25% 60% Median
18 25% 35%  
19 8% 10% Last Result
20 1.1% 1.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.8%  
14 10% 98%  
15 27% 88%  
16 38% 61% Median
17 15% 24% Last Result
18 7% 8%  
19 0.9% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 4% 99.5%  
12 24% 96%  
13 33% 72% Median
14 27% 39%  
15 9% 12%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations