Opinion Poll by Maskína, 24–28 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.8% 21.0–24.6% 20.5–25.2% 20.1–25.6% 19.3–26.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 17.9% 16.3–19.6% 15.9–20.1% 15.5–20.5% 14.7–21.4%
Píratar 9.2% 15.7% 14.2–17.4% 13.8–17.8% 13.4–18.3% 12.8–19.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 14.0% 12.6–15.6% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.4% 9.1–11.8% 8.8–12.2% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.8% 6.8–9.1% 6.5–9.5% 6.2–9.8% 5.8–10.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.7% 4.1–8.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.5% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9% 4.1–7.2% 3.8–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 13–18
Samfylkingin 7 13 11–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Píratar 6 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–12
Viðreisn 4 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 2–4 1–4 1–5 1–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 6% 99.7%  
14 13% 94%  
15 52% 81% Median
16 23% 29% Last Result
17 5% 6%  
18 0.7% 1.0%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 100%  
10 7% 99.2%  
11 22% 92%  
12 15% 70%  
13 53% 56% Median
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 4% 99.9%  
9 22% 96%  
10 42% 74% Median
11 27% 32%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 4% 99.9%  
8 31% 96%  
9 47% 65% Median
10 16% 19%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 12% 99.8%  
6 42% 88% Median
7 37% 46%  
8 8% 9%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.3% 100%  
4 37% 98.7%  
5 49% 62% Median
6 12% 13%  
7 0.8% 0.9%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 8% 99.9%  
2 3% 92%  
3 46% 89% Median
4 39% 42%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 45% 70% Median
4 24% 25% Last Result
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 38 100% 35–39 35–40 34–40 34–42
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 29 1.3% 27–31 26–31 26–31 25–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–29 24–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 20–24 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 15–22
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 15–18 14–18 14–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 14 0% 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 11 0% 10–13 9–13 9–13 9–14
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 10 0% 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–13

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.6%  
35 7% 97%  
36 16% 90%  
37 21% 74%  
38 23% 53% Median
39 22% 30%  
40 6% 7%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100% Last Result
25 2% 99.6%  
26 4% 98%  
27 14% 93%  
28 24% 80%  
29 24% 55% Median
30 21% 31%  
31 9% 11%  
32 1.1% 1.3% Majority
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.8%  
24 4% 98%  
25 12% 94%  
26 32% 82%  
27 25% 50% Median
28 15% 25%  
29 7% 10%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100% Last Result
24 1.1% 99.7%  
25 7% 98.6%  
26 23% 92%  
27 19% 69%  
28 29% 49% Median
29 18% 20%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 9% 99.5%  
25 18% 90%  
26 28% 72% Median
27 27% 44%  
28 11% 17%  
29 5% 6%  
30 0.9% 1.3%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100% Last Result
21 2% 99.8%  
22 8% 98%  
23 29% 90%  
24 30% 61% Median
25 20% 31%  
26 8% 11%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.4% 99.8%  
21 10% 98%  
22 21% 89%  
23 28% 67% Median
24 26% 39%  
25 10% 14%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.8%  
21 5% 98.6%  
22 20% 94%  
23 26% 74%  
24 30% 48% Median
25 13% 18%  
26 5% 5% Last Result
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.8%  
19 5% 99.2%  
20 10% 94%  
21 17% 85%  
22 39% 68% Median
23 16% 28%  
24 10% 12%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 4% 99.6%  
20 14% 96%  
21 30% 82% Median
22 35% 53%  
23 12% 17%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.9% 1.2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.8%  
18 10% 99.1%  
19 28% 89%  
20 34% 61% Median
21 19% 27%  
22 6% 8%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 9% 99.5%  
17 11% 91%  
18 31% 80% Median
19 34% 49%  
20 12% 15%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.0%  
17 11% 95%  
18 27% 84% Last Result
19 34% 57% Median
20 20% 23%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 6% 99.8%  
15 12% 93%  
16 29% 82% Median
17 35% 53% Last Result
18 14% 18%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 1.2% 99.7%  
12 6% 98.5%  
13 19% 93%  
14 27% 74% Median
15 25% 48%  
16 15% 23%  
17 6% 7%  
18 1.0% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 6% 99.9%  
10 21% 94%  
11 36% 73% Median
12 25% 37%  
13 11% 12%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.3% 100%  
7 4% 98.7%  
8 7% 95%  
9 34% 88% Median
10 27% 54%  
11 22% 27%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations