Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 10 March 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 27.6% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.6–30.1% 23.7–31.0%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.6% 23.5–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.6–28.0% 21.9–28.9%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 15.3% 13.7–16.6% 13.4–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
Independent 15.9% 7.8% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 56 49–61 49–63 48–64 46–66
Fianna Fáil 44 51 47–56 46–57 44–58 41–59
Sinn Féin 23 32 29–33 28–34 27–34 24–37
Independent 19 3 3 3–5 3–5 3–7
Social Democrats 3 7 5–10 5–11 4–11 4–11
Labour Party 7 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 6 4–9 4–9 4–9 3–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–5

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 1.0% 99.1%  
48 1.1% 98%  
49 7% 97% Last Result
50 3% 90%  
51 3% 87%  
52 3% 84%  
53 4% 81%  
54 9% 78%  
55 16% 69%  
56 9% 53% Median
57 8% 44%  
58 6% 36%  
59 5% 30%  
60 13% 25%  
61 4% 12%  
62 1.4% 8%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.5%  
43 0.6% 98.8%  
44 1.3% 98% Last Result
45 0.9% 97%  
46 3% 96%  
47 8% 93%  
48 9% 85%  
49 5% 76%  
50 13% 71%  
51 10% 58% Median
52 10% 48%  
53 9% 39%  
54 3% 30%  
55 14% 27%  
56 6% 13%  
57 4% 7%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
24 0.7% 99.7%  
25 0.4% 98.9%  
26 0.9% 98.5%  
27 0.7% 98%  
28 5% 97%  
29 5% 92%  
30 23% 88%  
31 4% 64%  
32 34% 60% Median
33 16% 26%  
34 9% 10%  
35 0.5% 1.3%  
36 0.2% 0.9%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 91% 100% Median
4 4% 9%  
5 3% 5%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.6%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 4% 100%  
5 16% 96%  
6 23% 80%  
7 24% 57% Median
8 13% 32%  
9 5% 19%  
10 8% 14%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 63% 79% Median
2 4% 16%  
3 8% 12%  
4 3% 4%  
5 0.5% 0.8%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 29% 99.4%  
5 20% 71%  
6 11% 51% Last Result, Median
7 17% 40%  
8 2% 24%  
9 21% 22%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 12% 76%  
2 62% 64% Last Result, Median
3 1.2% 2%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100%  
1 14% 65%  
2 15% 50% Median
3 17% 35%  
4 16% 19% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 32%  
2 23% 26%  
3 2% 3%  
4 0.4% 1.1%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 108 100% 103–111 102–112 101–114 98–117
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 83 75% 78–88 77–89 75–89 73–91
Fine Gael – Social Democrats – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 61 65 0% 60–70 58–72 56–74 56–77
Fianna Fáil – Social Democrats – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 56 60 0% 56–66 55–69 53–69 51–72
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 58 0% 52–64 50–65 50–67 49–69
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 57 0% 51–63 50–64 49–65 48–68
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 57 0% 51–62 49–64 49–65 47–68
Fine Gael 49 56 0% 49–61 49–63 48–64 46–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 54 0% 50–58 48–59 46–60 44–62
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 52 0% 49–57 46–58 45–59 43–60
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 52 0% 48–57 47–58 45–59 43–60

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 1.1% 99.4%  
100 0.8% 98%  
101 2% 98%  
102 4% 96%  
103 7% 91%  
104 5% 84%  
105 9% 79%  
106 3% 70%  
107 11% 67% Median
108 16% 56%  
109 8% 40%  
110 16% 32%  
111 8% 15%  
112 3% 8%  
113 0.7% 5%  
114 2% 4%  
115 0.3% 2%  
116 1.2% 2%  
117 0.6% 0.7%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.1% 99.7%  
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 0.8% 99.0%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 1.5% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 8% 94%  
79 9% 86%  
80 2% 77%  
81 6% 75% Majority
82 13% 68%  
83 11% 55% Median
84 13% 44%  
85 15% 31%  
86 2% 17%  
87 4% 15%  
88 3% 11%  
89 6% 8%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 1.3% 2%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Social Democrats – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 3% 99.6%  
57 1.5% 97%  
58 0.9% 95%  
59 3% 94%  
60 2% 92%  
61 3% 90% Last Result
62 5% 87%  
63 6% 82%  
64 8% 76%  
65 24% 68%  
66 5% 45% Median
67 6% 39%  
68 5% 33%  
69 15% 28%  
70 6% 14%  
71 3% 8%  
72 1.4% 5%  
73 0.9% 4%  
74 0.9% 3%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.5% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.7%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fianna Fáil – Social Democrats – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.6%  
52 0.6% 99.0%  
53 2% 98%  
54 0.8% 97%  
55 4% 96%  
56 4% 92% Last Result
57 11% 88%  
58 6% 77%  
59 12% 71%  
60 12% 59%  
61 5% 47% Median
62 4% 42%  
63 5% 38%  
64 6% 33%  
65 16% 27%  
66 2% 11%  
67 2% 8%  
68 1.2% 7%  
69 4% 6%  
70 0.8% 1.5%  
71 0.2% 0.7%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.7%  
49 0.9% 99.5%  
50 4% 98.6%  
51 2% 95%  
52 3% 93%  
53 3% 90%  
54 3% 86%  
55 3% 83%  
56 7% 80%  
57 9% 74%  
58 18% 64% Last Result
59 7% 47% Median
60 7% 39%  
61 6% 33%  
62 5% 27%  
63 11% 22%  
64 4% 12%  
65 3% 7%  
66 0.9% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.5%  
69 0.3% 0.8%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 0.6% 99.5%  
49 1.4% 98.9%  
50 5% 97%  
51 5% 93% Last Result
52 3% 88%  
53 2% 85%  
54 3% 83%  
55 5% 80%  
56 15% 75%  
57 15% 61%  
58 9% 45% Median
59 3% 37%  
60 6% 33%  
61 5% 27%  
62 11% 22%  
63 5% 11%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.0% 3%  
66 1.3% 2%  
67 0.5% 1.1%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 0.6% 99.6%  
48 0.7% 99.1%  
49 4% 98%  
50 4% 94%  
51 2% 90%  
52 3% 88%  
53 3% 86%  
54 6% 82%  
55 4% 76%  
56 17% 72% Last Result
57 9% 55% Median
58 12% 46%  
59 3% 34%  
60 4% 31%  
61 13% 27%  
62 5% 14%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.4% 4%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 1.0% 99.1%  
48 1.1% 98%  
49 7% 97% Last Result
50 3% 90%  
51 3% 87%  
52 3% 84%  
53 4% 81%  
54 9% 78%  
55 16% 69%  
56 9% 53% Median
57 8% 44%  
58 6% 36%  
59 5% 30%  
60 13% 25%  
61 4% 12%  
62 1.4% 8%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 0.9% 99.4%  
46 2% 98%  
47 2% 97%  
48 2% 95%  
49 1.4% 93%  
50 6% 92%  
51 10% 86%  
52 14% 75%  
53 10% 61% Last Result
54 10% 51% Median
55 8% 41%  
56 3% 33%  
57 5% 30%  
58 16% 25%  
59 6% 10%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.7% 1.0%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.6%  
44 0.9% 99.2%  
45 1.0% 98%  
46 2% 97% Last Result
47 2% 95%  
48 1.5% 92%  
49 6% 91%  
50 11% 85%  
51 12% 73%  
52 12% 61%  
53 10% 49% Median
54 6% 39%  
55 4% 33%  
56 3% 29%  
57 18% 26%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 4%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.0%  
45 0.9% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 2% 95%  
48 5% 93%  
49 10% 89%  
50 8% 78%  
51 10% 70% Last Result
52 11% 60% Median
53 13% 49%  
54 4% 36%  
55 2% 32%  
56 18% 30%  
57 7% 12%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 1.0% 1.4%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations