Social Democrats
Voting Intentions
Last result: 3.0% (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2.9% | 1.1–4.9% | 0.9–5.4% | 0.7–5.8% | 0.5–6.5% |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.0–3.5% |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
2.9% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.2% |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
3.0% | 2.7–3.4% | 2.5–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0.9% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.4% |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.5% |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
4.1% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.5–7.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Social Democrats.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 16% | 99.4% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 22% | 83% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 35% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 13% | 27% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 9% | 13% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 3 seats (General Election of 26 February 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–11 |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
3 | 3–4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–9 |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
8 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 | 3–12 |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–7 | 3–9 |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 0–4 |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 24 May 2019 | Red C RTÉ |
3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 1–22 May 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 6–16 May 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 2–14 May 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 6–8 May 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–5 |
| 4–16 April 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 1–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 21–28 March 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 28 February–12 March 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 4–5 March 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 14–20 February 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| 31 January–12 February 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 17–24 January 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 1–4 |
| 4–15 January 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 14–21 December 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 6–18 December 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 0–4 |
| 1–13 December 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| 15–22 November 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 1–13 November 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 26 October 2018 | Red C RTÉ |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 11–17 October 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| 5–16 October 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 10–12 October 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 3–10 October 2018 | Red C Paddy Power |
1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 6–18 September 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 6–13 September 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 1–4 |
| 15–24 August 2018 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 0–4 |
| 5–17 July 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 12 June 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 10–16 May 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 3–15 May 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 19–30 April 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
|||||
| 26 April 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 16–17 April 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 5–17 April 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 15–22 March 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| 6–13 March 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 15–22 February 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| 6–14 February 2018 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 1–13 February 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 15–25 January 2018 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 22–23 January 2018 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 4–16 January 2018 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 24 December 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| 22 December 2017 | Ireland Thinks Irish Daily Mail |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 7 December 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 23 November 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 7 November 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| 20 October 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 1–4 |
| 10 October 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 2 October 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 22 September 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| 12 September 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 21 July 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
|||||
| 11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 5 July 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| 10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 25 May 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| 13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 28 April 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–10 |
| 11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| 24 March 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 28 February 2017 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 23 February 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| 16 February 2017 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| 8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 1–4 |
| 26 January 2017 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 4–5 | 4–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 |
| 21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| 25 November 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| 9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
| 27 October 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| 20 October 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 22 September 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| 14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 27 July 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 13 July 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–10 |
| 13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| 7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 29 June 2016 | Millward Brown The Sunday Independent |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| 15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 26 May 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| 11 May 2016 | Red C Paddy Power |
4 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| 10 March 2016 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 4–11 | 4–11 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Social Democrats.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | |
| 1 | 3% | 90% | |
| 2 | 5% | 87% | |
| 3 | 47% | 83% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 13% | 36% | |
| 5 | 3% | 22% | |
| 6 | 4% | 19% | |
| 7 | 4% | 16% | |
| 8 | 3% | 11% | |
| 9 | 6% | 8% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |