Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 13 April 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.2% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.5% 23.3–29.0% 22.5–29.9%
Fine Gael 25.5% 23.2% 21.3–24.8% 20.8–25.4% 20.4–25.8% 19.6–26.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 17.1% 15.5–18.6% 15.0–19.1% 14.7–19.5% 14.0–20.3%
Independent 15.9% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.4–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.6–2.6%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 55 50–58 49–59 48–59 46–61
Fine Gael 49 44 42–50 41–52 39–53 38–56
Sinn Féin 23 35 33–37 32–38 31–38 28–40
Independent 19 9 5–13 5–14 4–15 4–16
Labour Party 7 1 0–3 0–4 0–5 0–7
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 7 5–9 4–9 4–10 3–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–3
Social Democrats 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 1–5
Independents 4 Change 4 3 1–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0–2

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.2% 99.6%  
47 1.4% 99.4%  
48 0.6% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 6% 95%  
51 6% 89%  
52 8% 83%  
53 4% 75%  
54 16% 71%  
55 6% 55% Median
56 20% 49%  
57 6% 29%  
58 17% 23%  
59 3% 5%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 2% 97%  
41 4% 96%  
42 16% 92%  
43 22% 75%  
44 8% 54% Median
45 7% 46%  
46 11% 39%  
47 5% 27%  
48 2% 23%  
49 4% 20% Last Result
50 9% 16%  
51 2% 7%  
52 1.3% 5%  
53 1.5% 4%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.4% 2%  
56 0.7% 1.2%  
57 0.2% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.3% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 0.5% 99.0%  
30 0.6% 98.5%  
31 1.2% 98%  
32 2% 97%  
33 14% 94%  
34 25% 81%  
35 13% 55% Median
36 22% 42%  
37 14% 20%  
38 4% 6%  
39 0.6% 2%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 3% 99.5%  
5 9% 96%  
6 8% 87%  
7 5% 79%  
8 17% 74%  
9 8% 57% Median
10 11% 49%  
11 8% 38%  
12 8% 30%  
13 14% 22%  
14 4% 8%  
15 2% 5%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 31% 54% Median
2 13% 23%  
3 3% 10%  
4 4% 7%  
5 2% 4%  
6 1.0% 2%  
7 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.9% 100%  
4 8% 99.1%  
5 15% 91%  
6 14% 76% Last Result
7 20% 62% Median
8 18% 42%  
9 21% 25%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 39% 94%  
2 48% 55% Last Result, Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0.3% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 2% 99.5%  
3 82% 97% Last Result, Median
4 14% 15%  
5 0.8% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 11% 95%  
2 13% 83%  
3 21% 70% Median
4 35% 49% Last Result
5 14% 14%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 2%  
2 0.6% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 100 100% 96–104 95–106 93–107 90–110
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 90 99.3% 84–94 83–95 82–95 80–99
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 60 0% 57–64 54–65 54–66 52–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 57 0% 54–60 51–61 51–62 49–64
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 57 0% 52–59 51–60 50–61 47–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 52–59 50–60 49–60 48–63
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 50 0% 47–56 46–58 44–60 43–63
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 47 0% 44–53 43–55 41–57 40–60
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 46 0% 43–52 42–53 41–55 39–58
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 45 0% 42–52 41–53 40–55 39–58
Fine Gael 49 44 0% 42–50 41–52 39–53 38–56

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 0.2% 99.4%  
92 0.9% 99.2%  
93 2% 98% Last Result
94 1.4% 96%  
95 3% 95%  
96 10% 92%  
97 5% 83%  
98 16% 77%  
99 9% 62% Median
100 11% 52%  
101 15% 41%  
102 7% 26%  
103 5% 19%  
104 7% 14%  
105 1.4% 7%  
106 2% 6%  
107 1.3% 4%  
108 1.0% 2%  
109 0.9% 1.4%  
110 0.3% 0.5%  
111 0.2% 0.2%  
112 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.6%  
81 0.7% 99.3% Majority
82 1.2% 98.6%  
83 2% 97%  
84 6% 95%  
85 5% 89%  
86 4% 84%  
87 4% 80%  
88 14% 76%  
89 11% 62%  
90 9% 50% Median
91 6% 41%  
92 5% 35%  
93 13% 30%  
94 10% 17%  
95 4% 7%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.5%  
98 0.2% 0.9%  
99 0.6% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 0.9% 99.0%  
54 4% 98%  
55 1.3% 95%  
56 2% 93% Last Result
57 4% 91%  
58 10% 87%  
59 12% 78%  
60 17% 66%  
61 15% 49% Median
62 5% 34%  
63 19% 29%  
64 5% 10%  
65 3% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.3%  
68 0.1% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.7% 99.6%  
50 0.8% 98.9%  
51 4% 98%  
52 1.2% 94%  
53 2% 93% Last Result
54 4% 91%  
55 10% 87%  
56 12% 77%  
57 18% 66%  
58 16% 48% Median
59 7% 32%  
60 16% 25%  
61 5% 9%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.6% 99.5%  
49 1.3% 98.8%  
50 1.1% 98%  
51 4% 96%  
52 4% 92%  
53 6% 88%  
54 8% 82%  
55 7% 74%  
56 15% 68%  
57 15% 53% Median
58 12% 38%  
59 18% 26%  
60 5% 8%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.7% 99.5%  
49 1.5% 98.8%  
50 4% 97%  
51 2% 94% Last Result
52 4% 91%  
53 9% 88%  
54 10% 79%  
55 10% 69%  
56 24% 59% Median
57 3% 34%  
58 11% 31%  
59 13% 20%  
60 4% 7%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.3%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 1.0% 99.8%  
44 2% 98.8%  
45 1.4% 97%  
46 1.5% 95%  
47 18% 94%  
48 14% 76%  
49 9% 62%  
50 7% 54% Median
51 4% 47%  
52 13% 42%  
53 5% 29%  
54 5% 24%  
55 7% 18%  
56 3% 11%  
57 2% 9%  
58 4% 7%  
59 0.4% 3%  
60 0.5% 3%  
61 1.2% 2% Last Result
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.1% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 2% 99.8%  
41 1.4% 98%  
42 1.3% 97%  
43 5% 96%  
44 15% 91%  
45 13% 76%  
46 10% 63%  
47 7% 53% Median
48 6% 46%  
49 12% 40%  
50 4% 27%  
51 5% 23%  
52 7% 18%  
53 3% 11%  
54 2% 8%  
55 4% 7%  
56 0.3% 3%  
57 0.7% 3%  
58 0.9% 2% Last Result
59 0.4% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 2% 98%  
42 2% 96%  
43 7% 94%  
44 28% 86%  
45 5% 58%  
46 9% 53% Median
47 7% 44%  
48 9% 37%  
49 6% 28%  
50 3% 22%  
51 8% 19% Last Result
52 5% 11%  
53 1.2% 6%  
54 2% 5%  
55 0.8% 3%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 0.8% 1.4%  
58 0.2% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.6%  
40 1.1% 98%  
41 2% 97%  
42 11% 95%  
43 11% 83%  
44 17% 73%  
45 6% 55% Median
46 7% 49%  
47 14% 42%  
48 4% 27%  
49 3% 24%  
50 8% 20%  
51 2% 13%  
52 2% 10%  
53 5% 8%  
54 0.4% 3%  
55 0.8% 3%  
56 0.4% 2% Last Result
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 2% 97%  
41 4% 96%  
42 16% 92%  
43 22% 75%  
44 8% 54% Median
45 7% 46%  
46 11% 39%  
47 5% 27%  
48 2% 23%  
49 4% 20% Last Result
50 9% 16%  
51 2% 7%  
52 1.3% 5%  
53 1.5% 4%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.4% 2%  
56 0.7% 1.2%  
57 0.2% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations