Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 11 May 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 27.0% 25.1–28.9% 24.6–29.5% 24.1–29.9% 23.3–30.9%
Fine Gael 25.5% 26.0% 24.1–27.9% 23.6–28.4% 23.2–28.9% 22.3–29.9%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 15.9% 14.4–17.6% 14.0–18.1% 13.7–18.5% 13.0–19.3%
Independent 15.9% 7.6% 6.5–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.5–10.1%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 52 50–56 47–57 45–58 44–59
Fine Gael 49 53 50–57 49–60 48–61 44–62
Sinn Féin 23 33 30–35 29–35 28–35 26–37
Independent 19 3 3–4 3–5 3–9 2–10
Labour Party 7 7 2–9 1–9 0–10 0–15
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 4 3–7 3–8 3–9 2–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 2–4 2–4 2–5 1–5
Social Democrats 3 3 3 2–4 1–4 1–4
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
45 2% 98.9%  
46 0.7% 97%  
47 2% 96%  
48 2% 94%  
49 3% 93%  
50 23% 90%  
51 4% 67%  
52 16% 63% Median
53 12% 47%  
54 3% 34%  
55 17% 32%  
56 6% 14%  
57 5% 9%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 0.4% 99.4%  
46 0.6% 99.0%  
47 0.8% 98%  
48 1.0% 98%  
49 3% 97% Last Result
50 9% 94%  
51 16% 84%  
52 16% 68%  
53 18% 52% Median
54 9% 34%  
55 10% 25%  
56 1.5% 15%  
57 4% 14%  
58 2% 9%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 3% 3%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.2%  
28 3% 98.6%  
29 3% 95%  
30 3% 92%  
31 9% 89%  
32 12% 81%  
33 19% 69% Median
34 27% 50%  
35 20% 23%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.9% 100%  
3 86% 99.1% Median
4 7% 14%  
5 2% 6%  
6 0.3% 5%  
7 0.9% 4%  
8 0.5% 3%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.6%  
11 0.2% 0.4%  
12 0% 0.3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 3% 97%  
2 10% 95%  
3 6% 85%  
4 4% 79%  
5 14% 75%  
6 4% 61%  
7 15% 57% Last Result, Median
8 9% 42%  
9 30% 33%  
10 0.7% 3%  
11 0.3% 2%  
12 0.5% 2%  
13 0.5% 2%  
14 0.4% 1.1%  
15 0.5% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.8% 99.7%  
3 24% 98.9%  
4 31% 75% Median
5 19% 44%  
6 12% 25% Last Result
7 3% 12%  
8 6% 9%  
9 2% 3%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0.4% 99.8%  
2 76% 99.4% Last Result, Median
3 5% 23%  
4 16% 19%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.3%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 6% 97%  
3 85% 92% Last Result, Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 9% 87%  
2 64% 78% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 105 100% 102–109 101–111 100–113 96–115
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 85 92% 81–89 80–91 78–92 77–93
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 64 0% 60–69 59–71 57–71 55–74
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 64 0% 60–67 58–69 55–69 52–72
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 61 0% 58–66 56–68 54–69 52–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 61 0% 57–64 55–66 52–66 50–69
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 59 0% 54–64 54–66 51–66 49–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 59 0% 54–62 53–64 50–64 47–67
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 55 0% 52–60 52–62 50–63 47–65
Fine Gael 49 53 0% 50–57 49–60 48–61 44–62
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 54 0% 52–59 49–60 47–60 46–62

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100% Last Result
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.6%  
97 0.5% 99.5%  
98 0.5% 99.0%  
99 0.8% 98%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 5% 97%  
102 9% 92%  
103 15% 83%  
104 9% 68%  
105 11% 59% Median
106 15% 49%  
107 10% 34%  
108 6% 24%  
109 9% 18%  
110 4% 9%  
111 0.5% 5%  
112 2% 5%  
113 0.7% 3%  
114 1.5% 2%  
115 0.4% 0.7%  
116 0.3% 0.3%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 1.1% 99.7%  
78 1.2% 98.6%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 95%  
81 3% 92% Majority
82 5% 89%  
83 10% 84%  
84 17% 73%  
85 8% 57% Median
86 10% 48%  
87 4% 39%  
88 24% 35%  
89 3% 11%  
90 2% 8%  
91 0.9% 5%  
92 3% 4%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.2% 99.6%  
56 1.2% 99.4%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 0.8% 97%  
59 4% 96%  
60 3% 92%  
61 6% 89% Last Result
62 2% 83%  
63 14% 81%  
64 18% 67%  
65 8% 49% Median
66 7% 41%  
67 15% 34%  
68 2% 19%  
69 10% 17%  
70 1.0% 7%  
71 4% 6%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.1% 99.4%  
54 0.1% 99.4%  
55 2% 99.3%  
56 0.9% 97% Last Result
57 0.5% 96%  
58 2% 96%  
59 4% 94%  
60 2% 90%  
61 4% 88%  
62 10% 84%  
63 4% 73%  
64 20% 69% Median
65 11% 49%  
66 16% 38%  
67 14% 22%  
68 3% 9%  
69 4% 6%  
70 0.4% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.3%  
72 0.5% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.7%  
52 0.2% 99.6%  
53 1.2% 99.4%  
54 1.0% 98%  
55 0.8% 97%  
56 5% 96%  
57 1.4% 92%  
58 8% 90% Last Result
59 2% 83%  
60 13% 81%  
61 18% 68%  
62 9% 49% Median
63 6% 40%  
64 15% 34%  
65 2% 19%  
66 9% 17%  
67 2% 8%  
68 4% 6%  
69 0.6% 3%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.5%  
51 0.1% 99.4%  
52 2% 99.4%  
53 1.0% 97% Last Result
54 0.6% 96%  
55 1.1% 96%  
56 4% 95%  
57 2% 90%  
58 5% 88%  
59 11% 84%  
60 4% 73%  
61 19% 69% Median
62 11% 50%  
63 16% 39%  
64 14% 23%  
65 2% 9%  
66 5% 7%  
67 0.4% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.4%  
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.5%  
50 1.1% 99.3%  
51 1.2% 98%  
52 0.3% 97%  
53 1.2% 97%  
54 6% 95%  
55 2% 90%  
56 7% 88% Last Result
57 9% 81%  
58 14% 72%  
59 15% 58%  
60 8% 43% Median
61 2% 35%  
62 15% 33%  
63 0.9% 18%  
64 9% 17%  
65 2% 8%  
66 4% 6%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.5%  
49 0.2% 99.4%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 1.1% 97% Last Result
52 1.1% 96%  
53 2% 95%  
54 6% 93%  
55 7% 87%  
56 2% 80%  
57 7% 78%  
58 10% 71%  
59 20% 61% Median
60 3% 41%  
61 16% 37%  
62 13% 21%  
63 2% 8%  
64 5% 7%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.5%  
48 0.5% 99.3%  
49 0.7% 98.8%  
50 1.0% 98%  
51 2% 97% Last Result
52 9% 95%  
53 14% 86%  
54 9% 71%  
55 18% 62% Median
56 15% 45%  
57 10% 30%  
58 5% 20%  
59 4% 15%  
60 2% 11%  
61 3% 10%  
62 3% 6%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.6% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 0.4% 99.4%  
46 0.6% 99.0%  
47 0.8% 98%  
48 1.0% 98%  
49 3% 97% Last Result
50 9% 94%  
51 16% 84%  
52 16% 68%  
53 18% 52% Median
54 9% 34%  
55 10% 25%  
56 1.5% 15%  
57 4% 14%  
58 2% 9%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 3% 3%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
47 2% 99.0%  
48 0.8% 97%  
49 2% 96%  
50 1.4% 94%  
51 1.4% 93%  
52 18% 92%  
53 4% 73%  
54 19% 69% Median
55 4% 50%  
56 4% 45%  
57 25% 42%  
58 6% 16%  
59 4% 10%  
60 4% 6%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations