Opinion Poll by Red C for Paddy Power, 11 May 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 27.2% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 25.2% 23.3–26.8% 22.9–27.3% 22.5–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.1% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0% 13.8–18.4% 13.2–19.1%
Independent 15.9% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–11.0%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.1% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 4.1% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 53 48–58 47–60 44–61 42–64
Fianna Fáil 44 48 41–50 39–51 37–53 36–55
Sinn Féin 23 32 29–33 27–35 27–35 25–36
Independent 19 4 3–7 3–9 3–10 3–12
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 10 8–11 6–11 5–11 4–11
Labour Party 7 5 1–8 1–8 1–11 0–13
Social Democrats 3 4 4–8 4–9 3–9 3–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
Independents 4 Change 4 2 2–3 1–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.4%  
44 1.4% 98.6%  
45 0.6% 97%  
46 1.2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 9% 93%  
49 4% 83% Last Result
50 4% 79%  
51 4% 75%  
52 7% 71%  
53 22% 64% Median
54 4% 42%  
55 7% 38%  
56 7% 30%  
57 10% 24%  
58 7% 14%  
59 1.5% 7%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 0.6% 99.6%  
37 3% 99.0%  
38 0.9% 96%  
39 0.5% 96%  
40 3% 95%  
41 5% 92%  
42 2% 87%  
43 4% 84%  
44 9% 80% Last Result
45 7% 71%  
46 2% 64%  
47 9% 62%  
48 25% 53% Median
49 7% 28%  
50 12% 21%  
51 4% 9%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.4% 1.2%  
55 0.4% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
24 0.2% 99.8%  
25 0.3% 99.6%  
26 2% 99.3%  
27 3% 98%  
28 3% 95%  
29 2% 91%  
30 5% 90%  
31 21% 84%  
32 27% 64% Median
33 28% 37%  
34 3% 9%  
35 5% 6%  
36 0.7% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 35% 100%  
4 38% 65% Median
5 3% 26%  
6 5% 23%  
7 11% 18%  
8 1.1% 7%  
9 3% 6%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.8% 1.5%  
12 0.4% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.9%  
5 2% 99.5%  
6 3% 97% Last Result
7 3% 94%  
8 6% 92%  
9 11% 86%  
10 60% 74% Median
11 14% 14%  
12 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 14% 99.1%  
2 4% 85%  
3 9% 81%  
4 5% 72%  
5 35% 67% Median
6 7% 32%  
7 11% 25% Last Result
8 9% 13%  
9 0.9% 4%  
10 0.5% 3%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.9%  
13 0.3% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100% Last Result
4 47% 95% Median
5 10% 49%  
6 9% 39%  
7 16% 30%  
8 8% 14%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.3% 0.6%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100%  
1 14% 67%  
2 52% 53% Last Result, Median
3 0.2% 0.9%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 4% 96%  
2 60% 92% Median
3 32% 32%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 50% 67% Median
2 12% 17%  
3 4% 5%  
4 0.2% 0.4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 101 100% 95–104 93–106 91–107 89–109
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 79 37% 72–82 71–83 69–84 67–87
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 61 64 0% 60–70 59–72 57–73 54–76
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 58 0% 55–65 52–66 50–67 49–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 56 57 0% 52–64 50–65 49–66 46–68
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 58 0% 54–63 50–64 49–65 47–68
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 54 0% 50–60 47–61 46–63 44–65
Fine Gael 49 53 0% 48–58 47–60 44–61 42–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 53 0% 47–58 45–60 44–60 41–62
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 53 0% 45–57 44–58 43–59 40–62
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 48 0% 42–52 41–53 38–54 37–57

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 2% 99.4%  
91 0.9% 98%  
92 0.5% 97%  
93 2% 96% Last Result
94 4% 94%  
95 6% 90%  
96 4% 84%  
97 8% 80%  
98 6% 72%  
99 11% 66%  
100 4% 55%  
101 25% 51% Median
102 7% 26%  
103 5% 19%  
104 5% 14%  
105 1.4% 9%  
106 3% 8%  
107 2% 5%  
108 2% 2%  
109 0.2% 0.7%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
68 0.4% 99.2%  
69 3% 98.8%  
70 0.6% 96%  
71 1.1% 96%  
72 6% 95%  
73 2% 89%  
74 4% 87%  
75 6% 83%  
76 9% 77%  
77 4% 68%  
78 9% 64%  
79 8% 56%  
80 10% 47% Median
81 24% 37% Majority
82 7% 13%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 0.9% 2%  
86 0.1% 0.7%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0% 0.3%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 0.6% 99.0%  
57 2% 98%  
58 1.0% 97%  
59 3% 96%  
60 4% 93%  
61 2% 89% Last Result
62 24% 87%  
63 6% 63%  
64 9% 56% Median
65 17% 48%  
66 3% 31%  
67 3% 28%  
68 4% 25%  
69 9% 21%  
70 4% 12%  
71 1.4% 8%  
72 4% 6%  
73 1.1% 3%  
74 0.4% 1.4%  
75 0.5% 1.1%  
76 0.1% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.7%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 1.4% 97%  
52 2% 96%  
53 0.9% 93%  
54 1.1% 92%  
55 2% 91%  
56 5% 89%  
57 2% 84%  
58 36% 82% Last Result
59 5% 46%  
60 6% 41% Median
61 12% 35%  
62 4% 23%  
63 3% 19%  
64 3% 15%  
65 7% 12%  
66 2% 6%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.3% 1.0%  
70 0.3% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.3% 99.3%  
48 0.6% 99.0%  
49 3% 98%  
50 2% 95%  
51 0.9% 93%  
52 6% 92%  
53 2% 87%  
54 8% 84%  
55 6% 76%  
56 4% 70% Last Result
57 25% 65%  
58 4% 41%  
59 2% 37% Median
60 3% 35%  
61 3% 32%  
62 6% 30%  
63 7% 24%  
64 8% 17%  
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.5% 1.4%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.8%  
48 1.4% 99.3%  
49 1.0% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 0.8% 95%  
52 2% 94%  
53 1.2% 92%  
54 5% 91%  
55 3% 86%  
56 15% 83% Last Result
57 6% 68%  
58 23% 62% Median
59 8% 39%  
60 10% 31%  
61 3% 21%  
62 4% 18%  
63 5% 14%  
64 4% 9%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.3% 1.3%  
68 0.6% 1.0%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.3% 99.5%  
45 0.7% 99.2%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 97%  
48 1.0% 94%  
49 3% 93%  
50 9% 90%  
51 4% 81% Last Result
52 4% 77%  
53 23% 73%  
54 7% 51%  
55 4% 43% Median
56 6% 40%  
57 8% 34%  
58 9% 25%  
59 4% 17%  
60 7% 12%  
61 1.3% 6%  
62 2% 5%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.5% 1.4%  
65 0.6% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.4%  
44 1.4% 98.6%  
45 0.6% 97%  
46 1.2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 9% 93%  
49 4% 83% Last Result
50 4% 79%  
51 4% 75%  
52 7% 71%  
53 22% 64% Median
54 4% 42%  
55 7% 38%  
56 7% 30%  
57 10% 24%  
58 7% 14%  
59 1.5% 7%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.1% 99.6%  
42 0.7% 99.5%  
43 0.8% 98.8%  
44 0.7% 98%  
45 3% 97%  
46 3% 94%  
47 5% 91%  
48 12% 86%  
49 2% 74%  
50 5% 72%  
51 2% 68%  
52 4% 66%  
53 23% 61% Last Result
54 9% 38%  
55 3% 29% Median
56 2% 26%  
57 11% 25%  
58 4% 13%  
59 3% 9%  
60 4% 6%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 0.8% 1.3%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.7% 99.4%  
42 0.9% 98.7%  
43 0.7% 98%  
44 4% 97%  
45 5% 93%  
46 9% 88%  
47 6% 80%  
48 3% 74%  
49 4% 71%  
50 4% 67%  
51 5% 62% Last Result
52 6% 57%  
53 22% 52% Median
54 4% 30%  
55 10% 26%  
56 3% 15%  
57 3% 12%  
58 6% 9%  
59 1.5% 3%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.7%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.5% 99.6%  
38 3% 99.1%  
39 0.2% 96%  
40 0.9% 96%  
41 2% 95%  
42 4% 93%  
43 5% 90%  
44 3% 85%  
45 8% 82%  
46 5% 74% Last Result
47 9% 69%  
48 21% 61%  
49 9% 40%  
50 6% 30% Median
51 6% 24%  
52 11% 18%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 1.5%  
56 0.4% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.4%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations