Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 26 May 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 15.2% 13.8–16.7% 13.4–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.3%
Independent 15.9% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.0% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–12.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 51 47–56 45–57 44–58 42–61
Fianna Fáil 44 53 49–56 47–57 46–57 43–58
Sinn Féin 23 29 26–34 25–34 23–34 22–36
Independent 19 5 3–9 3–9 3–10 3–12
Labour Party 7 6 3–8 3–9 2–10 1–15
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 9 6–10 5–10 5–10 4–10
Social Democrats 3 4 4–7 4–7 4–7 3–8
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 1.3% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 0.7% 96%  
46 2% 95%  
47 6% 93%  
48 3% 88%  
49 23% 85% Last Result
50 8% 61%  
51 21% 54% Median
52 3% 33%  
53 7% 30%  
54 4% 23%  
55 10% 20%  
56 1.3% 10%  
57 6% 9%  
58 1.3% 3%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.8%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 0.2% 99.7%  
43 0.2% 99.6%  
44 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
45 1.4% 99.1%  
46 2% 98%  
47 1.2% 96%  
48 3% 95%  
49 15% 92%  
50 1.4% 77%  
51 6% 75%  
52 8% 70%  
53 23% 62% Median
54 23% 38%  
55 4% 15%  
56 4% 11%  
57 5% 7%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.8%  
22 0.2% 99.5%  
23 2% 99.4% Last Result
24 2% 97%  
25 1.1% 96%  
26 21% 95%  
27 2% 74%  
28 3% 72%  
29 28% 69% Median
30 5% 41%  
31 13% 37%  
32 5% 23%  
33 8% 19%  
34 10% 11%  
35 0.2% 0.8%  
36 0.6% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 13% 100%  
4 13% 87%  
5 39% 74% Median
6 8% 36%  
7 4% 28%  
8 2% 24%  
9 19% 22%  
10 0.8% 3%  
11 0.6% 2%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 2% 98%  
3 10% 96%  
4 8% 86%  
5 10% 78%  
6 33% 68% Median
7 23% 35% Last Result
8 6% 11%  
9 2% 5%  
10 0.5% 3%  
11 0.3% 2%  
12 0.3% 2%  
13 0.2% 2%  
14 0.4% 1.3%  
15 0.5% 1.0%  
16 0.3% 0.5%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.7%  
5 8% 99.2%  
6 2% 91% Last Result
7 6% 89%  
8 7% 83%  
9 45% 75% Median
10 31% 31%  
11 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100% Last Result
4 51% 99.4% Median
5 31% 49%  
6 8% 18%  
7 8% 10%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 11% 13%  
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 29% 87%  
2 32% 58% Median
3 4% 26%  
4 14% 23% Last Result
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 104 100% 99–107 99–108 97–109 93–112
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 82 57% 79–86 75–87 74–90 72–90
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 61 62 0% 59–65 56–68 54–70 52–73
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 56 64 0% 58–68 57–68 56–69 53–73
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 57 0% 53–61 51–63 49–66 47–68
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 57 0% 53–61 51–63 49–66 47–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 60 0% 53–62 52–64 51–64 48–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 60 0% 53–62 52–64 50–64 48–68
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 53 0% 49–56 47–57 46–58 43–59
Fine Gael 49 51 0% 47–56 45–57 44–58 42–61
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 51 0% 47–56 46–57 44–58 42–61

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
94 0.4% 99.1%  
95 0.5% 98.7%  
96 0.6% 98%  
97 0.6% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 6% 95%  
100 5% 89%  
101 2% 84%  
102 6% 82%  
103 25% 77%  
104 31% 52% Median
105 3% 20%  
106 5% 18%  
107 6% 13%  
108 4% 7%  
109 0.9% 3%  
110 1.3% 2%  
111 0.2% 0.8%  
112 0.3% 0.6%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.5%  
74 2% 99.0%  
75 2% 97%  
76 0.5% 95%  
77 2% 94%  
78 1.3% 92%  
79 19% 91%  
80 15% 72%  
81 4% 57% Majority
82 4% 53% Median
83 27% 49%  
84 3% 22%  
85 6% 18%  
86 6% 13%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.1% 5%  
89 0.5% 3%  
90 3% 3%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 1.2% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 98.6%  
54 0.7% 98%  
55 0.8% 97%  
56 2% 97%  
57 2% 95%  
58 2% 92%  
59 10% 91%  
60 23% 81%  
61 4% 59% Last Result, Median
62 22% 55%  
63 5% 32%  
64 4% 28%  
65 14% 24%  
66 2% 9%  
67 1.3% 7%  
68 1.0% 6%  
69 1.2% 5%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.1%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Social Democrats – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 99.4%  
55 0.8% 98.5%  
56 1.1% 98% Last Result
57 6% 97%  
58 3% 90%  
59 10% 88%  
60 1.4% 78%  
61 4% 76%  
62 3% 72%  
63 6% 69% Median
64 24% 63%  
65 23% 39%  
66 4% 16%  
67 1.2% 11%  
68 5% 10%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.3% 1.3%  
72 0.4% 1.0%  
73 0.1% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 1.2% 99.4%  
49 0.9% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 1.4% 96%  
52 3% 94%  
53 5% 91%  
54 3% 86%  
55 26% 83%  
56 3% 57%  
57 5% 55% Median
58 22% 49% Last Result
59 4% 28%  
60 7% 24%  
61 10% 17%  
62 1.3% 7%  
63 1.0% 6%  
64 1.3% 5%  
65 0.8% 4%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 1.2% 99.6%  
48 0.3% 98%  
49 1.2% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 1.3% 95%  
52 3% 94%  
53 6% 91%  
54 6% 86%  
55 24% 80%  
56 2% 56% Last Result
57 5% 54% Median
58 24% 49%  
59 2% 25%  
60 6% 23%  
61 10% 17%  
62 1.2% 7%  
63 1.0% 6%  
64 1.0% 4%  
65 0.8% 3%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.5%  
50 1.1% 99.0%  
51 2% 98%  
52 5% 96%  
53 3% 91% Last Result
54 4% 88%  
55 11% 85%  
56 4% 74%  
57 3% 70%  
58 5% 67%  
59 5% 62% Median
60 41% 57%  
61 2% 15%  
62 5% 13%  
63 0.8% 8%  
64 5% 7%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 0.6% 99.3%  
50 2% 98.8%  
51 2% 97% Last Result
52 4% 95%  
53 4% 91%  
54 3% 87%  
55 11% 84%  
56 4% 74%  
57 3% 70%  
58 8% 66%  
59 3% 59% Median
60 42% 56%  
61 3% 14%  
62 3% 11%  
63 0.7% 8%  
64 5% 7%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.8%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 0.2% 99.7%  
43 0.2% 99.6%  
44 0.2% 99.4%  
45 0.5% 99.2%  
46 2% 98.8% Last Result
47 1.5% 96%  
48 3% 95%  
49 14% 92%  
50 2% 78%  
51 5% 76%  
52 8% 71%  
53 20% 62% Median
54 27% 42%  
55 4% 16%  
56 4% 12%  
57 4% 8%  
58 4% 4%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 1.3% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 0.7% 96%  
46 2% 95%  
47 6% 93%  
48 3% 88%  
49 23% 85% Last Result
50 8% 61%  
51 21% 54% Median
52 3% 33%  
53 7% 30%  
54 4% 23%  
55 10% 20%  
56 1.3% 10%  
57 6% 9%  
58 1.3% 3%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.8%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.5%  
44 3% 99.2%  
45 0.6% 96%  
46 1.4% 95%  
47 6% 94%  
48 3% 88%  
49 22% 86%  
50 9% 64%  
51 21% 55% Last Result, Median
52 3% 34%  
53 6% 31%  
54 3% 24%  
55 11% 22%  
56 2% 11%  
57 6% 9%  
58 1.1% 3%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.9%  
61 0.4% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations