Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 15 June 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.5% 24.5–28.2% 24.0–28.8% 23.5–29.2% 22.7–30.2%
Fine Gael 25.5% 25.5% 23.5–27.2% 23.0–27.8% 22.6–28.2% 21.7–29.2%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 17.3% 15.7–18.9% 15.2–19.4% 14.9–19.8% 14.2–20.6%
Independent 15.9% 9.5% 8.3–10.8% 8.0–11.2% 7.7–11.5% 7.2–12.2%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.1% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.1% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.6–6.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.1% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.9%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.5%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 51 49–59 48–60 47–60 45–60
Fine Gael 49 50 44–57 43–58 42–59 41–61
Sinn Féin 23 34 32–38 31–39 30–39 28–40
Independent 19 6 4–10 3–12 3–12 3–16
Labour Party 7 2 1–6 1–8 0–8 0–10
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 6 4–9 3–9 3–9 3–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Social Democrats 3 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
45 1.0% 99.6%  
46 0.8% 98.5%  
47 1.4% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 5% 95%  
50 10% 90%  
51 32% 79% Median
52 6% 47%  
53 5% 41%  
54 6% 36%  
55 6% 30%  
56 5% 24%  
57 6% 19%  
58 2% 13%  
59 4% 11%  
60 7% 7%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 4% 99.2%  
43 4% 95%  
44 4% 91%  
45 5% 87%  
46 11% 82%  
47 5% 71%  
48 2% 67%  
49 11% 65% Last Result
50 5% 53% Median
51 3% 49%  
52 8% 46%  
53 7% 38%  
54 2% 31%  
55 5% 29%  
56 12% 24%  
57 2% 12%  
58 6% 10%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.7% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 1.3% 99.2%  
30 0.7% 98%  
31 5% 97%  
32 5% 92%  
33 9% 88%  
34 40% 78% Median
35 8% 39%  
36 6% 31%  
37 4% 25%  
38 15% 20%  
39 4% 6%  
40 0.9% 1.4%  
41 0.2% 0.5%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 8% 100%  
4 4% 92%  
5 29% 88%  
6 20% 59% Median
7 13% 39%  
8 6% 27%  
9 3% 20%  
10 10% 17%  
11 2% 7%  
12 3% 6%  
13 1.0% 2%  
14 0.4% 1.3%  
15 0.2% 0.8%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 31% 97%  
2 24% 66% Median
3 11% 43%  
4 5% 31%  
5 5% 27%  
6 12% 21%  
7 3% 10% Last Result
8 4% 6%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 99.9%  
4 4% 94%  
5 27% 89%  
6 17% 62% Last Result, Median
7 4% 45%  
8 25% 41%  
9 14% 16%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 32% 91%  
2 54% 58% Last Result, Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 7% 83%  
2 14% 76%  
3 22% 62% Median
4 34% 40% Last Result
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 34% 80% Median
2 27% 46%  
3 18% 19% Last Result
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 103 100% 99–108 97–109 94–112 91–113
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 85 98% 83–96 82–98 81–98 78–98
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 59 0% 54–64 54–66 52–67 50–69
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 56 0% 48–63 48–64 47–66 46–69
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 57 0% 53–62 53–64 51–64 48–67
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 56 0% 48–61 48–63 46–64 44–67
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 51–61 51–63 50–63 47–66
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 54 0% 47–59 45–61 45–63 43–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 53 0% 51–60 50–61 48–61 46–61
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 52 0% 46–59 44–60 43–60 42–62
Fine Gael 49 50 0% 44–57 43–58 42–59 41–61

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.5% 99.9%  
92 0.4% 99.4%  
93 0.6% 99.1% Last Result
94 1.3% 98%  
95 0.6% 97%  
96 0.8% 96%  
97 2% 96%  
98 2% 94%  
99 8% 92%  
100 16% 84%  
101 5% 68% Median
102 6% 63%  
103 8% 57%  
104 6% 49%  
105 2% 42%  
106 11% 40%  
107 14% 30%  
108 8% 16%  
109 3% 8%  
110 1.0% 5%  
111 1.3% 4%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.1% 0.5%  
114 0.2% 0.4%  
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.4%  
80 1.4% 99.1%  
81 2% 98% Majority
82 5% 96%  
83 7% 91%  
84 11% 84%  
85 25% 73% Median
86 5% 48%  
87 4% 43%  
88 2% 39%  
89 4% 37%  
90 6% 32%  
91 5% 26%  
92 3% 21%  
93 2% 18%  
94 4% 17%  
95 3% 13%  
96 1.2% 10%  
97 3% 9%  
98 6% 6%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.3% 99.5%  
51 1.4% 99.2%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 1.1% 97%  
54 6% 96%  
55 4% 89%  
56 21% 86% Last Result, Median
57 8% 65%  
58 5% 57%  
59 7% 52%  
60 10% 45%  
61 7% 34%  
62 12% 27%  
63 4% 15%  
64 4% 11%  
65 2% 7%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.0% 3%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.7%  
46 0.2% 99.5%  
47 3% 99.3%  
48 6% 96%  
49 2% 90%  
50 0.9% 88%  
51 4% 87%  
52 8% 82%  
53 5% 74%  
54 13% 69%  
55 4% 56% Median
56 4% 52%  
57 2% 49%  
58 2% 47%  
59 1.2% 45%  
60 9% 44%  
61 13% 35% Last Result
62 13% 23%  
63 5% 10%  
64 2% 5%  
65 0.5% 3%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.1% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.7%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.4% 99.3%  
50 1.4% 98.9%  
51 0.6% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 7% 95% Last Result
54 13% 88%  
55 16% 75% Median
56 7% 59%  
57 7% 53%  
58 12% 46%  
59 4% 34%  
60 3% 30%  
61 8% 28%  
62 11% 20%  
63 1.3% 9%  
64 5% 7%  
65 0.4% 2%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 1.3% 1.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.5%  
46 3% 99.2%  
47 1.1% 96%  
48 7% 95%  
49 7% 88%  
50 4% 81%  
51 5% 76%  
52 5% 71%  
53 11% 67%  
54 3% 55% Median
55 2% 52%  
56 4% 50%  
57 7% 47%  
58 2% 40% Last Result
59 14% 38%  
60 7% 24%  
61 10% 16%  
62 1.0% 7%  
63 3% 6%  
64 0.5% 3%  
65 1.4% 2%  
66 0.1% 0.9%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.1% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.6%  
48 0.5% 99.2%  
49 1.0% 98.7%  
50 1.2% 98%  
51 8% 97% Last Result
52 12% 89%  
53 13% 77% Median
54 9% 64%  
55 5% 55%  
56 9% 50%  
57 8% 41%  
58 5% 33%  
59 4% 28%  
60 5% 24%  
61 11% 19%  
62 2% 8%  
63 3% 5%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 0.3% 99.4%  
45 4% 99.1%  
46 0.6% 95%  
47 8% 94%  
48 7% 87%  
49 4% 79%  
50 7% 75%  
51 10% 68%  
52 3% 58% Median
53 3% 55%  
54 6% 52%  
55 6% 46%  
56 1.0% 40% Last Result
57 13% 39%  
58 5% 26%  
59 12% 21%  
60 3% 9%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.0% 4%  
63 0.3% 3%  
64 0.3% 2%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 1.3% 99.7% Last Result
47 0.4% 98%  
48 1.0% 98%  
49 1.1% 97%  
50 5% 96%  
51 4% 91%  
52 14% 88%  
53 31% 74% Median
54 5% 43%  
55 6% 38%  
56 6% 32%  
57 3% 26%  
58 8% 22%  
59 3% 15%  
60 5% 12%  
61 7% 7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.4%  
44 4% 96%  
45 2% 92%  
46 7% 90%  
47 10% 83%  
48 6% 74%  
49 2% 68%  
50 3% 66%  
51 13% 63% Last Result
52 3% 50% Median
53 3% 47%  
54 11% 44%  
55 3% 33%  
56 3% 30%  
57 4% 27%  
58 11% 23%  
59 3% 11%  
60 6% 8%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.9% 1.3%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 4% 99.2%  
43 4% 95%  
44 4% 91%  
45 5% 87%  
46 11% 82%  
47 5% 71%  
48 2% 67%  
49 11% 65% Last Result
50 5% 53% Median
51 3% 49%  
52 8% 46%  
53 7% 38%  
54 2% 31%  
55 5% 29%  
56 12% 24%  
57 2% 12%  
58 6% 10%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.7% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations