Opinion Poll by Millward Brown for The Sunday Independent, 29 June 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 25.5% 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Labour Party 6.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Independent 15.9% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael 49 58 51–59 51–63 51–66 47–66
Fianna Fáil 44 47 45–51 41–51 41–52 39–53
Sinn Féin 23 35 34–36 34–39 34–40 32–41
Labour Party 7 9 6–10 6–10 5–13 3–17
Independent 19 3 3 3 1–3 1–4
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 4 3–5 3–8 3–9 3–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Social Democrats 3 3 3 2–3 1–3 1–4
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 0.1% 99.6%  
48 0.2% 99.5%  
49 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
50 0.1% 98.6%  
51 12% 98%  
52 0.4% 87%  
53 4% 86%  
54 2% 82%  
55 2% 80%  
56 0.2% 79%  
57 2% 78%  
58 62% 76% Median
59 4% 14%  
60 2% 10%  
61 3% 8%  
62 0.4% 6%  
63 0.2% 5%  
64 0.1% 5%  
65 1.5% 5%  
66 3% 3%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 1.0% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 98.9%  
41 5% 98.7%  
42 2% 94%  
43 1.1% 92%  
44 0.4% 91% Last Result
45 3% 91%  
46 37% 88%  
47 0.9% 51% Median
48 26% 50%  
49 8% 24%  
50 3% 16%  
51 9% 13%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.2% 99.3%  
34 9% 98%  
35 75% 90% Median
36 5% 14%  
37 0.8% 9%  
38 3% 8%  
39 2% 6%  
40 4% 4%  
41 0.6% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.3% 99.7%  
4 0.3% 99.3%  
5 2% 99.1%  
6 32% 97%  
7 6% 65% Last Result
8 7% 59%  
9 4% 52% Median
10 44% 48%  
11 1.2% 4%  
12 0.6% 3%  
13 0.3% 3%  
14 0.8% 2%  
15 0.2% 1.5%  
16 0.6% 1.2%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 2% 99.8%  
2 0.9% 97%  
3 95% 96% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 0.1% 99.8%  
3 50% 99.7%  
4 5% 50% Median
5 37% 45%  
6 2% 7% Last Result
7 0.3% 6%  
8 2% 5%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100%  
1 1.2% 51%  
2 50% 50% Last Result, Median
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 4% 99.7%  
2 2% 96%  
3 92% 94% Last Result, Median
4 1.4% 1.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 6% 48%  
2 36% 41%  
3 4% 6%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil 93 104 100% 102–107 100–108 98–109 93–110
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 83 88% 79–86 76–88 76–89 74–90
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 69 0% 66–72 64–75 62–77 61–77
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 67 0% 63–69 61–72 59–74 58–74
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 66 0% 61–68 59–72 59–72 57–74
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 58 0% 53–60 53–65 53–68 48–68
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 59 0% 58–64 52–66 52–66 50–66
Fine Gael 49 58 0% 51–59 51–63 51–66 47–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 56 0% 55–61 49–63 49–63 47–63
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 56 0% 54–60 47–61 47–61 47–62
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 49 0% 45–52 43–53 42–53 40–55

Fine Gael – Fianna Fáil

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.4% 100%  
91 0% 99.6%  
92 0% 99.6%  
93 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
94 0.1% 99.1%  
95 0% 99.0%  
96 0.5% 99.0%  
97 0.4% 98%  
98 0.7% 98%  
99 0.8% 97%  
100 4% 97%  
101 2% 93%  
102 11% 91%  
103 3% 80%  
104 35% 77%  
105 3% 41% Median
106 26% 38%  
107 5% 12%  
108 4% 7%  
109 0.4% 3%  
110 2% 2%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.4% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.6%  
75 0.7% 99.4%  
76 4% 98.7%  
77 1.4% 95%  
78 0.2% 93%  
79 4% 93%  
80 2% 89%  
81 36% 88% Majority
82 1.0% 52% Median
83 27% 51%  
84 2% 24%  
85 4% 22%  
86 13% 19%  
87 0.5% 6%  
88 1.4% 5%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.6% 1.1%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
62 3% 99.3%  
63 0.2% 96%  
64 5% 96%  
65 0.6% 91%  
66 9% 91%  
67 1.0% 82%  
68 3% 81%  
69 30% 78%  
70 2% 48%  
71 35% 46%  
72 2% 10% Median
73 0.9% 9%  
74 0.7% 8%  
75 2% 7%  
76 0.3% 5%  
77 4% 4%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
59 3% 99.5%  
60 0.3% 96%  
61 4% 96%  
62 0.3% 92%  
63 10% 92%  
64 0.9% 82%  
65 2% 81%  
66 29% 79%  
67 2% 50%  
68 38% 49%  
69 2% 10% Median
70 0.6% 8%  
71 0.6% 8%  
72 2% 7%  
73 0.2% 5%  
74 4% 4%  
75 0% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
57 0.6% 99.7%  
58 0.4% 99.1%  
59 6% 98.6%  
60 0.3% 93%  
61 10% 92%  
62 0.8% 82%  
63 2% 81%  
64 27% 79%  
65 0.7% 52%  
66 1.4% 51%  
67 3% 50% Median
68 39% 47%  
69 0.8% 8%  
70 0.7% 8%  
71 0.6% 7%  
72 5% 6%  
73 0.1% 0.8%  
74 0.6% 0.7%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.6%  
49 0.1% 99.4%  
50 0.1% 99.3%  
51 0.9% 99.2% Last Result
52 0.3% 98%  
53 14% 98%  
54 1.0% 84%  
55 2% 83%  
56 0.7% 81%  
57 2% 80%  
58 35% 79%  
59 6% 43%  
60 28% 37% Median
61 3% 9%  
62 1.0% 6%  
63 0.3% 5%  
64 0.1% 5%  
65 1.0% 5%  
66 0.2% 4%  
67 0.6% 4%  
68 3% 3%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 1.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 98.9%  
52 4% 98.5%  
53 0.3% 95%  
54 0.7% 95%  
55 2% 94%  
56 0.8% 92% Last Result
57 0.6% 91%  
58 0.4% 90%  
59 67% 90%  
60 4% 23%  
61 5% 20% Median
62 4% 14%  
63 0.3% 11%  
64 1.2% 11%  
65 0.3% 9%  
66 9% 9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 0.1% 99.6%  
48 0.2% 99.5%  
49 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
50 0.1% 98.6%  
51 12% 98%  
52 0.4% 87%  
53 4% 86%  
54 2% 82%  
55 2% 80%  
56 0.2% 79%  
57 2% 78%  
58 62% 76% Median
59 4% 14%  
60 2% 10%  
61 3% 8%  
62 0.4% 6%  
63 0.2% 5%  
64 0.1% 5%  
65 1.5% 5%  
66 3% 3%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 1.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 98.9%  
49 4% 98%  
50 0.3% 95%  
51 0.7% 95%  
52 2% 94%  
53 0.9% 92% Last Result
54 0.5% 91%  
55 0.4% 90%  
56 64% 90%  
57 2% 26%  
58 6% 24% Median
59 6% 17%  
60 0.6% 11%  
61 1.1% 10%  
62 0.3% 9%  
63 9% 9%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 5% 99.6%  
48 0.1% 95%  
49 0.8% 95%  
50 0.5% 94%  
51 0.4% 93% Last Result
52 2% 93%  
53 0.8% 91%  
54 29% 90%  
55 0.7% 62%  
56 36% 61% Median
57 7% 25%  
58 6% 17%  
59 0.8% 11%  
60 0.9% 10%  
61 9% 9%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.4% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.5%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 1.2% 98%  
43 4% 96%  
44 1.0% 93%  
45 2% 92%  
46 35% 90% Last Result
47 3% 54%  
48 2% 52%  
49 4% 50% Median
50 27% 46%  
51 5% 19%  
52 5% 14%  
53 9% 9%  
54 0.2% 0.8%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations