Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for Irish Times, 7 July 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 33.3% 31.6–35.1% 31.1–35.6% 30.7–36.1% 29.9–36.9%
Fine Gael 25.5% 24.2% 22.7–25.9% 22.3–26.4% 21.9–26.8% 21.2–27.6%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 16.2% 14.9–17.6% 14.5–18.0% 14.2–18.4% 13.6–19.1%
Independent 15.9% 9.4% 8.4–10.6% 8.1–10.9% 7.9–11.2% 7.4–11.8%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 4.0–6.5% 3.6–7.0%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 62 60–63 59–63 58–63 57–63
Fine Gael 49 44 43–49 42–51 42–52 41–54
Sinn Féin 23 32 30–37 29–37 28–38 27–39
Independent 19 7 4–10 4–10 4–11 3–13
Labour Party 7 2 2–6 1–7 1–8 0–9
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 3 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Social Democrats 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Independents 4 Change 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.1%  
59 5% 97%  
60 3% 92%  
61 8% 89%  
62 68% 81% Median
63 13% 13%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.7%  
42 5% 98.9%  
43 43% 94%  
44 17% 51% Median
45 4% 34%  
46 4% 30%  
47 11% 27%  
48 5% 16%  
49 2% 11% Last Result
50 2% 9%  
51 4% 6%  
52 1.2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.3%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.7%  
27 1.1% 99.6%  
28 2% 98%  
29 4% 97%  
30 7% 92%  
31 2% 86%  
32 40% 84% Median
33 4% 43%  
34 7% 39%  
35 11% 32%  
36 2% 21%  
37 16% 19%  
38 1.4% 3%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 10% 98%  
5 31% 88%  
6 7% 57%  
7 3% 50% Median
8 2% 48%  
9 2% 46%  
10 41% 43%  
11 1.4% 3%  
12 0.2% 1.4%  
13 0.9% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 4% 98.9%  
2 61% 95% Median
3 19% 34%  
4 1.1% 14%  
5 0.8% 13%  
6 4% 13%  
7 5% 9% Last Result
8 3% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.5%  
11 0.2% 0.4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 8% 99.9%  
2 27% 92% Last Result
3 63% 65% Median
4 0.9% 2%  
5 0.9% 1.3%  
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 58% 83% Median
2 6% 25%  
3 16% 19%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0% Last Result

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.8%  
2 0.5% 99.7%  
3 87% 99.2% Last Result, Median
4 12% 12%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 22% 88%  
2 7% 67%  
3 45% 60% Median
4 14% 15% Last Result
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 105 100% 105–110 104–111 104–112 100–114
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 94 100% 91–99 90–99 88–99 86–100
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 70 0% 68–73 66–74 65–75 65–76
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 67 0% 65–70 63–71 62–72 62–73
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 64 0% 63–68 61–69 61–70 60–70
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 65 0% 63–65 61–65 60–65 59–66
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 53 0% 51–58 50–60 50–61 48–65
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 50 0% 48–55 48–57 46–58 45–62
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 47 0% 45–53 45–54 44–55 44–59
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 46 0% 46–52 44–53 44–54 43–56
Fine Gael 49 44 0% 43–49 42–51 42–52 41–54

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.3% 99.7%  
101 0.2% 99.5%  
102 0.4% 99.2%  
103 0.9% 98.9%  
104 5% 98%  
105 43% 92%  
106 20% 50% Median
107 0.9% 29%  
108 5% 29%  
109 7% 24%  
110 8% 17%  
111 4% 9%  
112 3% 5%  
113 0.3% 1.2%  
114 0.6% 0.9%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100% Majority
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.4% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.6%  
86 0.1% 99.5%  
87 0.8% 99.4%  
88 1.2% 98.6%  
89 0.5% 97%  
90 4% 97%  
91 5% 93%  
92 5% 88%  
93 2% 83%  
94 41% 81% Median
95 4% 40%  
96 4% 36%  
97 10% 32%  
98 5% 22%  
99 17% 17%  
100 0.6% 0.7%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.8%  
66 3% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 4% 92%  
69 7% 88%  
70 51% 81% Median
71 18% 31%  
72 0.9% 13%  
73 4% 12%  
74 4% 9%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.1% 1.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.8%  
63 4% 97%  
64 2% 94%  
65 4% 92%  
66 10% 88%  
67 48% 78% Median
68 17% 30%  
69 1.3% 13%  
70 5% 12%  
71 3% 6%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.5%  
61 5% 98.8%  
62 3% 94%  
63 5% 91%  
64 52% 87% Median
65 21% 35%  
66 2% 14%  
67 0.5% 12%  
68 4% 11%  
69 3% 7%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 3% 99.4%  
61 4% 96%  
62 2% 93%  
63 7% 91%  
64 15% 83%  
65 68% 69% Median
66 0.7% 1.0%  
67 0.4% 0.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 1.4% 99.8%  
49 0.7% 98%  
50 3% 98%  
51 40% 95%  
52 1.3% 55% Median
53 20% 53%  
54 5% 34%  
55 8% 29%  
56 5% 21%  
57 3% 16%  
58 4% 13%  
59 3% 9%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.4% 3% Last Result
62 0.3% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 2% 99.9%  
46 2% 98%  
47 0.8% 96%  
48 40% 95%  
49 4% 55% Median
50 18% 51%  
51 5% 33%  
52 10% 28%  
53 4% 19%  
54 2% 15%  
55 5% 13%  
56 2% 8%  
57 3% 6%  
58 0.8% 3% Last Result
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.2% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.9%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 4% 99.6%  
45 39% 95%  
46 1.1% 56% Median
47 19% 55%  
48 2% 36%  
49 8% 34%  
50 7% 26%  
51 6% 19%  
52 1.5% 13%  
53 5% 12%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 5%  
56 0.8% 2% Last Result
57 0.3% 1.4%  
58 0.2% 1.0%  
59 0.3% 0.8%  
60 0.5% 0.5%  
61 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.7%  
44 3% 98%  
45 4% 95%  
46 43% 91%  
47 17% 48% Median
48 6% 31%  
49 7% 25%  
50 7% 18%  
51 0.7% 11% Last Result
52 3% 11%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 1.0% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.7%  
42 5% 98.9%  
43 43% 94%  
44 17% 51% Median
45 4% 34%  
46 4% 30%  
47 11% 27%  
48 5% 16%  
49 2% 11% Last Result
50 2% 9%  
51 4% 6%  
52 1.2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.3%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations