Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 13 July 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 30.0% 28.0–31.9% 27.5–32.5% 27.0–33.0% 26.1–34.0%
Fine Gael 25.5% 25.0% 23.2–26.9% 22.7–27.4% 22.3–27.9% 21.4–28.8%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 14.0% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
Independent 15.9% 10.1% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.3–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 5.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.3%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 5.0% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Social Democrats 3.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.6–2.6%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 58 55–61 54–61 54–61 50–62
Fine Gael 49 47 43–51 40–53 40–55 40–58
Sinn Féin 23 26 22–32 20–34 20–34 17–34
Independent 19 8 4–12 4–13 3–14 3–15
Labour Party 7 7 2–10 1–11 1–12 1–15
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 9 6–9 5–10 5–10 4–10
Social Democrats 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 1–4
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.5%  
51 0.4% 99.4%  
52 0.8% 99.0%  
53 0.7% 98%  
54 5% 98%  
55 3% 92%  
56 8% 89%  
57 20% 81%  
58 19% 61% Median
59 14% 42%  
60 13% 28%  
61 13% 15%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 5% 99.6%  
41 3% 95%  
42 1.2% 92%  
43 5% 91%  
44 6% 86%  
45 10% 79%  
46 16% 69%  
47 14% 53% Median
48 11% 39%  
49 4% 28% Last Result
50 10% 24%  
51 7% 14%  
52 2% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 0.4% 4%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.3% 2%  
57 0.9% 1.5%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0.4% 99.7%  
18 0.2% 99.3%  
19 1.0% 99.2%  
20 3% 98%  
21 2% 95%  
22 5% 93%  
23 8% 88% Last Result
24 9% 80%  
25 5% 71%  
26 18% 66% Median
27 5% 47%  
28 5% 42%  
29 15% 38%  
30 3% 22%  
31 6% 19%  
32 3% 13%  
33 3% 9%  
34 6% 7%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100%  
4 8% 96%  
5 14% 88%  
6 12% 74%  
7 7% 62%  
8 15% 55% Median
9 7% 41%  
10 14% 34%  
11 5% 19%  
12 7% 15%  
13 3% 7%  
14 2% 4%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 7% 99.5%  
2 10% 93%  
3 15% 83%  
4 5% 69%  
5 7% 64%  
6 5% 57%  
7 4% 52% Last Result, Median
8 9% 48%  
9 23% 39%  
10 9% 16%  
11 3% 7%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.6% 1.4%  
14 0.2% 0.8%  
15 0.2% 0.6%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 0.7% 99.7%  
5 6% 99.0%  
6 6% 93% Last Result
7 8% 87%  
8 26% 79%  
9 47% 53% Median
10 7% 7%  
11 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 2% 99.3%  
3 84% 97% Last Result, Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Median
1 22% 23%  
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 33% 83%  
2 4% 51% Median
3 7% 46%  
4 30% 39% Last Result
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 105 100% 100–109 100–110 98–112 97–115
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 86 87% 80–90 78–91 76–91 75–93
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 68 0% 62–73 61–74 61–74 58–76
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 65 0% 58–70 58–71 58–71 55–74
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 65 0% 58–70 58–70 58–71 54–73
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 57 0% 51–63 51–64 50–65 46–69
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 58 0% 56–61 54–61 54–62 50–63
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 54 0% 48–61 48–61 47–62 43–66
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 53 0% 48–60 47–61 46–62 43–66
Fine Gael 49 47 0% 43–51 40–53 40–55 40–58
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 47 0% 43–51 41–53 40–55 40–58

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.8%  
97 0.8% 99.6%  
98 1.3% 98.8%  
99 2% 97%  
100 9% 95%  
101 4% 86%  
102 7% 82%  
103 3% 75%  
104 6% 72%  
105 21% 66% Median
106 16% 45%  
107 8% 29%  
108 8% 21%  
109 3% 13%  
110 7% 10%  
111 0.6% 3%  
112 0.7% 3%  
113 0.3% 2%  
114 0.8% 2%  
115 0.3% 0.7%  
116 0.2% 0.4%  
117 0.2% 0.2%  
118 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.8% 99.5%  
76 2% 98.7%  
77 0.7% 97%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94%  
80 4% 92%  
81 8% 87% Majority
82 9% 80%  
83 8% 71%  
84 6% 63% Median
85 3% 56%  
86 10% 53%  
87 20% 44%  
88 10% 24%  
89 2% 15%  
90 7% 13%  
91 4% 5%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 0.9% 99.6%  
59 0.3% 98.7%  
60 0.6% 98%  
61 7% 98%  
62 4% 91%  
63 1.2% 87%  
64 14% 86%  
65 11% 71%  
66 5% 61%  
67 2% 55%  
68 5% 53% Median
69 7% 49%  
70 7% 41%  
71 11% 34%  
72 4% 23%  
73 12% 19%  
74 6% 7%  
75 0.4% 1.4%  
76 0.5% 0.9%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
54 0.1% 99.6%  
55 0.9% 99.6%  
56 0.2% 98.7%  
57 0.6% 98.5%  
58 9% 98%  
59 2% 89%  
60 2% 87%  
61 17% 85%  
62 7% 69%  
63 6% 61%  
64 2% 55%  
65 7% 53% Median
66 5% 46%  
67 7% 41%  
68 11% 34%  
69 3% 23%  
70 12% 20%  
71 6% 7%  
72 0.4% 1.3%  
73 0.4% 0.9%  
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9% Last Result
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 0.8% 99.3%  
56 0.3% 98.6%  
57 0.6% 98%  
58 10% 98%  
59 2% 88%  
60 7% 86%  
61 14% 79%  
62 6% 65%  
63 5% 59%  
64 2% 54%  
65 7% 52% Median
66 5% 44%  
67 7% 39%  
68 10% 32%  
69 4% 22%  
70 14% 18%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.5% 1.2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.3%  
48 0.5% 98.9%  
49 0.3% 98%  
50 2% 98%  
51 14% 96%  
52 4% 83%  
53 13% 79%  
54 3% 66%  
55 3% 63%  
56 5% 59%  
57 16% 54% Median
58 10% 38%  
59 4% 28%  
60 3% 25%  
61 1.5% 22% Last Result
62 6% 20%  
63 5% 15%  
64 5% 10%  
65 3% 5%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 0.3% 2%  
68 0.2% 1.2%  
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 99.4%  
52 0.8% 99.1%  
53 0.5% 98%  
54 5% 98%  
55 3% 93%  
56 7% 90%  
57 15% 83%  
58 21% 68% Median
59 14% 47%  
60 15% 33%  
61 13% 18%  
62 4% 5%  
63 0.8% 0.9%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.3%  
45 0.4% 98.8%  
46 0.3% 98%  
47 2% 98%  
48 15% 96%  
49 3% 82%  
50 12% 79%  
51 5% 66%  
52 5% 61%  
53 4% 56%  
54 15% 53% Median
55 10% 38%  
56 3% 28%  
57 3% 25%  
58 2% 22% Last Result
59 6% 20%  
60 3% 13%  
61 5% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 0.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 2%  
65 0.1% 1.1%  
66 0.6% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.1%  
45 0.3% 98.6%  
46 0.8% 98%  
47 3% 97%  
48 13% 95%  
49 4% 81%  
50 14% 77%  
51 6% 63%  
52 3% 58%  
53 6% 55%  
54 14% 49% Median
55 8% 35%  
56 3% 27% Last Result
57 3% 24%  
58 3% 21%  
59 5% 18%  
60 4% 13%  
61 5% 9%  
62 3% 5%  
63 0.4% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.4%  
65 0.1% 1.1%  
66 0.6% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 5% 99.6%  
41 3% 95%  
42 1.2% 92%  
43 5% 91%  
44 6% 86%  
45 10% 79%  
46 16% 69%  
47 14% 53% Median
48 11% 39%  
49 4% 28% Last Result
50 10% 24%  
51 7% 14%  
52 2% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 0.4% 4%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.3% 2%  
57 0.9% 1.5%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 5% 99.8%  
41 2% 95%  
42 3% 94%  
43 4% 91%  
44 4% 86%  
45 13% 83%  
46 14% 70%  
47 15% 56% Median
48 7% 41%  
49 10% 34%  
50 8% 25%  
51 8% 17% Last Result
52 2% 9%  
53 2% 7%  
54 0.6% 4%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.4% 2%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations