Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 13 July 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.9% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Fine Gael 25.5% 25.9% 24.0–27.5% 23.5–28.0% 23.1–28.5% 22.3–29.4%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 12.9% 11.6–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.1% 10.3–15.8%
Independent 15.9% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Social Democrats 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.3% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 58 54–59 54–60 54–60 51–61
Fine Gael 49 51 47–55 46–59 46–60 43–61
Sinn Féin 23 27 21–29 20–30 19–31 16–33
Independent 19 3 3 3 3 2–5
Labour Party 7 6 3–10 3–11 1–11 1–14
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 9 7–10 6–10 6–10 4–10
Social Democrats 3 5 4–6 4–7 4–8 3–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 2–4 2–4 1–4 1–5
Independents 4 Change 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–4
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.1% 99.7%  
51 0.2% 99.6%  
52 0.4% 99.4%  
53 1.4% 99.0%  
54 8% 98%  
55 5% 90%  
56 27% 85%  
57 7% 58%  
58 16% 51% Median
59 25% 35%  
60 8% 10%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.5%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.6%  
44 0.2% 99.3%  
45 1.1% 99.1%  
46 4% 98%  
47 10% 94%  
48 4% 85%  
49 16% 81% Last Result
50 11% 65%  
51 15% 54% Median
52 14% 39%  
53 5% 25%  
54 10% 20%  
55 2% 10%  
56 2% 8%  
57 1.2% 7%  
58 0.6% 6%  
59 1.4% 5%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.4% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.2% 99.8%  
16 0.1% 99.6%  
17 0.7% 99.5%  
18 0.3% 98.8%  
19 3% 98%  
20 2% 95%  
21 3% 93%  
22 4% 90%  
23 10% 86% Last Result
24 2% 76%  
25 10% 74%  
26 7% 64%  
27 12% 57% Median
28 19% 45%  
29 19% 26%  
30 3% 7%  
31 0.7% 3%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.9% 1.3%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0.2% 99.8%  
2 1.0% 99.7%  
3 97% 98.6% Median
4 1.4% 2%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 3% 99.8%  
2 2% 97%  
3 16% 95%  
4 17% 80%  
5 8% 62%  
6 27% 55% Median
7 4% 28% Last Result
8 6% 25%  
9 7% 19%  
10 3% 12%  
11 7% 9%  
12 1.0% 2%  
13 0.5% 1.2%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.7% 99.8%  
5 1.3% 99.1%  
6 5% 98% Last Result
7 6% 93%  
8 10% 87%  
9 54% 77% Median
10 23% 23%  
11 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100% Last Result
4 42% 99.4%  
5 37% 58% Median
6 11% 20%  
7 5% 9%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.5%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 4% 99.9%  
2 75% 96% Last Result, Median
3 9% 22%  
4 12% 13%  
5 0.8% 1.0%  
6 0.1% 0.3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Median
1 32% 43%  
2 3% 10%  
3 3% 7%  
4 4% 5% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.2%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 108 100% 105–112 104–114 103–115 100–117
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 85 80% 79–88 76–88 74–89 72–92
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 71 0.2% 66–76 66–77 64–77 63–80
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 63 0% 61–68 59–72 59–74 55–75
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 65 0% 61–70 61–72 60–73 58–73
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 63 0% 59–68 59–69 57–70 55–71
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 58 0% 56–63 55–68 53–68 51–70
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 56 0% 53–61 52–65 51–66 48–68
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 60 0% 57–62 56–63 56–63 53–64
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 53 0% 49–57 49–61 48–62 45–64
Fine Gael 49 51 0% 47–55 46–59 46–60 43–61

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.9% 99.5%  
102 0.5% 98.6%  
103 3% 98%  
104 3% 95%  
105 8% 92%  
106 6% 84%  
107 14% 78%  
108 24% 64%  
109 7% 40% Median
110 16% 33%  
111 7% 17%  
112 2% 10%  
113 3% 8%  
114 2% 5%  
115 2% 4%  
116 0.4% 1.3%  
117 0.5% 0.9%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 1.2% 99.5%  
74 3% 98%  
75 0.7% 96%  
76 1.0% 95%  
77 0.9% 94%  
78 2% 93%  
79 9% 91%  
80 2% 82%  
81 10% 80% Majority
82 4% 70%  
83 7% 66%  
84 7% 59%  
85 23% 52% Median
86 8% 29%  
87 10% 21%  
88 7% 11%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.7% 1.2%  
92 0.5% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100% Last Result
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.7% 99.6%  
64 2% 98.9%  
65 1.4% 97%  
66 13% 96%  
67 7% 83%  
68 6% 76%  
69 13% 70%  
70 6% 57%  
71 22% 51% Median
72 4% 29%  
73 4% 25%  
74 7% 20%  
75 2% 13%  
76 2% 11%  
77 6% 9%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.2%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2% Majority
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.6% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.4%  
57 0.7% 99.1%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 3% 98%  
60 3% 95%  
61 23% 92% Last Result
62 8% 69%  
63 13% 61%  
64 8% 49% Median
65 5% 40%  
66 9% 35%  
67 13% 26%  
68 3% 12%  
69 2% 10%  
70 1.0% 8%  
71 0.8% 7%  
72 1.5% 6%  
73 0.9% 4%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.9% 1.2%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100% Last Result
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0% 99.7%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 0.5% 99.5%  
59 1.5% 99.0%  
60 1.2% 98%  
61 11% 96%  
62 10% 85%  
63 6% 75%  
64 15% 69%  
65 6% 54%  
66 6% 49% Median
67 21% 43%  
68 3% 22%  
69 3% 18%  
70 6% 15%  
71 2% 10%  
72 3% 8%  
73 4% 5%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Last Result
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 1.0% 99.4%  
57 2% 98%  
58 0.8% 96%  
59 12% 95%  
60 11% 83%  
61 6% 72%  
62 14% 66%  
63 7% 52%  
64 6% 45% Median
65 18% 39%  
66 4% 21%  
67 2% 17%  
68 6% 15%  
69 5% 9%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.6%  
52 0.6% 98.9%  
53 2% 98%  
54 1.3% 96%  
55 4% 95%  
56 15% 91%  
57 16% 76%  
58 13% 60% Last Result
59 5% 47% Median
60 7% 42%  
61 8% 36%  
62 14% 28%  
63 4% 14%  
64 2% 9%  
65 2% 8%  
66 0.8% 6%  
67 0.4% 6%  
68 3% 5%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.4%  
50 1.0% 98.6%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 96%  
53 3% 92%  
54 15% 89%  
55 16% 74%  
56 12% 58% Last Result
57 7% 46% Median
58 11% 39%  
59 4% 28%  
60 13% 24%  
61 4% 12%  
62 1.1% 8%  
63 0.9% 7%  
64 0.7% 6%  
65 0.5% 5%  
66 4% 5%  
67 0.4% 1.3%  
68 0.7% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 0.3% 99.5%  
55 0.9% 99.2%  
56 5% 98%  
57 6% 93%  
58 26% 87%  
59 7% 62%  
60 13% 54% Median
61 26% 42%  
62 10% 16%  
63 4% 6%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.7%  
46 0.2% 99.5%  
47 0.9% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 6% 95%  
50 3% 89%  
51 16% 87% Last Result
52 14% 71%  
53 18% 56% Median
54 11% 39%  
55 5% 28%  
56 10% 23%  
57 4% 14%  
58 2% 9%  
59 2% 7%  
60 0.5% 6%  
61 1.0% 5%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.8% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.6%  
44 0.2% 99.3%  
45 1.1% 99.1%  
46 4% 98%  
47 10% 94%  
48 4% 85%  
49 16% 81% Last Result
50 11% 65%  
51 15% 54% Median
52 14% 39%  
53 5% 25%  
54 10% 20%  
55 2% 10%  
56 2% 8%  
57 1.2% 7%  
58 0.6% 6%  
59 1.4% 5%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.4% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations