Opinion Poll by Red C for Paddy Power, 27 July 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.3% 26.4–30.1% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.1% 24.7–32.0%
Fine Gael 25.5% 27.3% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.5–30.1% 23.7–31.0%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
Independent 15.9% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Social Democrats 3.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 57 52–59 51–60 50–60 48–60
Fine Gael 49 55 50–59 49–61 48–62 46–64
Sinn Féin 23 31 28–34 26–34 26–35 24–35
Independent 19 3 3–6 3–7 3–8 3–10
Labour Party 7 1 0–1 0–2 0–3 0–5
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 5 4–9 4–9 4–9 3–10
Social Democrats 3 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Independents 4 Change 4 2 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.6% 99.4%  
50 3% 98.8%  
51 2% 96%  
52 11% 94%  
53 9% 83%  
54 3% 74%  
55 8% 71%  
56 11% 62%  
57 17% 52% Median
58 18% 34%  
59 9% 16%  
60 7% 8%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.7%  
46 0.8% 99.6%  
47 0.7% 98.8%  
48 2% 98%  
49 3% 96% Last Result
50 9% 94%  
51 13% 85%  
52 5% 72%  
53 5% 67%  
54 12% 62%  
55 7% 50% Median
56 13% 43%  
57 6% 30%  
58 7% 24%  
59 10% 17%  
60 1.1% 7%  
61 2% 6%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.1% 0.6%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.8%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
24 0.7% 99.6%  
25 1.0% 98.9%  
26 4% 98%  
27 2% 94%  
28 6% 92%  
29 5% 86%  
30 26% 81%  
31 14% 55% Median
32 17% 41%  
33 8% 24%  
34 12% 16%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 54% 100% Median
4 30% 46%  
5 6% 16%  
6 3% 10%  
7 4% 7%  
8 1.3% 3%  
9 0.6% 2%  
10 0.8% 1.3%  
11 0.3% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100%  
1 52% 61% Median
2 5% 9%  
3 3% 5%  
4 0.7% 2%  
5 0.7% 1.0%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100%  
4 23% 99.4%  
5 29% 77% Median
6 11% 47% Last Result
7 3% 37%  
8 5% 33%  
9 28% 28%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 6% 100% Last Result
4 70% 94% Median
5 23% 24%  
6 1.2% 1.4%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 37% 90%  
2 51% 52% Last Result, Median
3 1.1% 1.3%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 27% 84%  
2 18% 57% Median
3 9% 40%  
4 27% 31% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 111 100% 106–114 106–115 105–117 102–120
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 88 97% 83–90 82–92 80–92 77–94
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 60 0% 56–66 56–67 55–68 52–70
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 63 0% 58–66 57–66 56–67 54–69
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 56 0% 52–62 51–63 51–64 48–66
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 59 0% 54–62 53–62 52–63 50–64
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 56 0% 52–61 51–62 50–63 47–65
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 55 0% 50–60 50–62 49–63 46–65
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 58 0% 53–61 53–61 51–62 49–62
Fine Gael 49 55 0% 50–59 49–61 48–62 46–64
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–61 49–63

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100% Last Result
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.7% 99.3%  
104 0.8% 98.6%  
105 3% 98%  
106 9% 95%  
107 6% 86%  
108 12% 80%  
109 5% 68%  
110 8% 63%  
111 11% 55%  
112 22% 44% Median
113 5% 22%  
114 9% 17%  
115 3% 8%  
116 2% 5%  
117 2% 3%  
118 0.2% 2%  
119 0.4% 1.3%  
120 0.6% 1.0%  
121 0.3% 0.3%  
122 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.7%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 1.0% 99.4%  
79 0.5% 98%  
80 0.7% 98%  
81 1.4% 97% Majority
82 3% 96%  
83 5% 92%  
84 9% 87%  
85 17% 79%  
86 4% 62%  
87 8% 58%  
88 26% 50% Median
89 6% 25%  
90 9% 18%  
91 4% 10%  
92 3% 5%  
93 2% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.6%  
53 1.1% 99.2%  
54 0.6% 98%  
55 2% 98%  
56 10% 96%  
57 2% 86%  
58 15% 84%  
59 7% 68%  
60 12% 61%  
61 7% 50% Last Result
62 8% 43% Median
63 10% 36%  
64 3% 25%  
65 4% 22%  
66 11% 18%  
67 2% 6%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.6% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.1%  
56 3% 98.7% Last Result
57 3% 96%  
58 6% 93%  
59 4% 88%  
60 12% 84%  
61 9% 71%  
62 10% 63%  
63 6% 53%  
64 27% 47% Median
65 10% 20%  
66 6% 10%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.6% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 1.1% 99.2%  
50 0.6% 98%  
51 3% 98%  
52 9% 94%  
53 2% 86%  
54 16% 83%  
55 14% 67%  
56 4% 54%  
57 6% 50%  
58 11% 44% Last Result, Median
59 9% 33%  
60 4% 25%  
61 6% 20%  
62 8% 14%  
63 3% 6%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.7%  
51 0.4% 99.1%  
52 2% 98.8%  
53 3% 96% Last Result
54 7% 93%  
55 7% 87%  
56 8% 80%  
57 8% 71%  
58 11% 64%  
59 17% 52%  
60 16% 35% Median
61 9% 19%  
62 7% 10%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 0.7% 99.3%  
49 1.1% 98.6%  
50 2% 98%  
51 5% 96% Last Result
52 9% 90%  
53 12% 82%  
54 6% 70%  
55 13% 64%  
56 4% 51%  
57 13% 47% Median
58 9% 33%  
59 4% 24%  
60 6% 20%  
61 8% 14%  
62 2% 6%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 0.9% 99.4%  
48 0.5% 98%  
49 2% 98%  
50 6% 96%  
51 3% 89%  
52 15% 86%  
53 6% 71%  
54 13% 65%  
55 4% 53%  
56 9% 48% Last Result, Median
57 7% 39%  
58 7% 32%  
59 7% 25%  
60 10% 17%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.4% 1.2%  
65 0.5% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100% Last Result
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 99.5%  
51 2% 98.8%  
52 1.2% 96%  
53 9% 95%  
54 8% 87%  
55 7% 79%  
56 7% 72%  
57 8% 66%  
58 13% 57%  
59 22% 44% Median
60 11% 22%  
61 6% 10%  
62 4% 4%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.7%  
46 0.8% 99.6%  
47 0.7% 98.8%  
48 2% 98%  
49 3% 96% Last Result
50 9% 94%  
51 13% 85%  
52 5% 72%  
53 5% 67%  
54 12% 62%  
55 7% 50% Median
56 13% 43%  
57 6% 30%  
58 7% 24%  
59 10% 17%  
60 1.1% 7%  
61 2% 6%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.1% 0.6%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 1.2% 99.3%  
51 3% 98% Last Result
52 2% 95%  
53 11% 93%  
54 9% 83%  
55 4% 74%  
56 13% 69%  
57 7% 57%  
58 26% 50% Median
59 9% 24%  
60 8% 15%  
61 6% 7%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations