Opinion Poll by Behaviour & Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 14 September 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 24.3% 28.2% 26.4–30.2% 25.8–30.7% 25.4–31.2% 24.5–32.2%
Fine Gael 25.5% 23.2% 21.4–25.0% 20.9–25.6% 20.5–26.0% 19.7–26.9%
Sinn Féin 13.8% 18.1% 16.6–19.8% 16.1–20.3% 15.7–20.8% 15.0–21.6%
Independent 15.9% 10.2% 9.0–11.6% 8.7–12.0% 8.4–12.4% 7.9–13.0%
Labour Party 6.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.6% 5.5–8.9% 5.1–9.5%
Solidarity–People Before Profit 3.9% 4.1% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.6–6.1%
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2.7% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Independents 4 Change 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.6–2.6%
Social Democrats 3.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Renua Ireland 2.2% 0.1% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil 44 54 51–57 50–60 49–61 47–62
Fine Gael 49 42 39–46 38–46 37–50 35–56
Sinn Féin 23 36 33–39 31–39 30–40 28–42
Independent 19 6 4–11 4–13 4–14 3–16
Labour Party 7 11 7–15 4–17 3–20 2–20
Solidarity–People Before Profit 6 6 5–8 3–9 3–9 3–10
Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 2 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Independents 4 Change 4 4 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Social Democrats 3 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Renua Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fianna Fáil

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100% Last Result
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.7% 99.5%  
48 0.7% 98.8%  
49 1.0% 98%  
50 5% 97%  
51 5% 92%  
52 20% 87%  
53 15% 67%  
54 12% 52% Median
55 19% 40%  
56 9% 21%  
57 5% 12%  
58 1.3% 8%  
59 1.3% 6%  
60 2% 5%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.8% 99.7%  
36 0.8% 98.9%  
37 1.4% 98%  
38 6% 97%  
39 4% 91%  
40 21% 87%  
41 8% 67%  
42 19% 59% Median
43 17% 40%  
44 8% 23%  
45 3% 15%  
46 7% 11%  
47 0.7% 4%  
48 0.6% 4%  
49 0.5% 3% Last Result
50 1.0% 3%  
51 0.3% 2%  
52 0.1% 1.2%  
53 0.2% 1.1%  
54 0.1% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.7%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Sinn Féin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.7%  
27 0.1% 99.6%  
28 0.1% 99.5%  
29 0.4% 99.4%  
30 4% 99.0%  
31 2% 95%  
32 2% 94%  
33 4% 91%  
34 12% 88%  
35 19% 76%  
36 11% 57% Median
37 20% 46%  
38 13% 27%  
39 10% 14%  
40 1.1% 3%  
41 0.8% 2%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Independent

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 18% 98%  
5 17% 80%  
6 31% 63% Median
7 8% 32%  
8 7% 24%  
9 3% 17%  
10 3% 15%  
11 2% 12%  
12 1.3% 10%  
13 5% 9%  
14 2% 3%  
15 1.0% 2%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.4% 99.9%  
2 2% 99.5%  
3 0.7% 98%  
4 2% 97%  
5 2% 95%  
6 2% 93%  
7 6% 91% Last Result
8 10% 85%  
9 10% 75%  
10 12% 65%  
11 4% 53% Median
12 6% 49%  
13 14% 43%  
14 18% 29%  
15 3% 11%  
16 2% 8%  
17 1.2% 6%  
18 0.5% 4%  
19 0.7% 4%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 5% 99.7%  
4 3% 94%  
5 37% 91%  
6 31% 54% Last Result, Median
7 10% 24%  
8 6% 14%  
9 6% 7%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party/Comhaontas Glas page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 9% 11%  
2 2% 2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Independents 4 Change

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 4% 88%  
2 23% 85%  
3 7% 62%  
4 50% 55% Last Result, Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Social Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 42% 79% Median
2 8% 37%  
3 29% 29% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Renua Ireland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael 93 96 100% 92–101 89–104 89–104 86–109
Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin 67 90 99.4% 86–94 84–96 83–97 80–99
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 56 67 0% 62–71 61–72 58–73 56–76
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 53 66 0% 61–70 59–72 56–72 55–74
Fianna Fáil – Labour Party 51 65 0% 61–69 59–72 56–72 55–74
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats 61 55 0% 50–59 48–60 47–62 43–66
Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 46 54 0% 51–57 50–60 49–61 47–62
Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 58 54 0% 49–58 47–59 46–60 42–65
Fine Gael – Labour Party 56 54 0% 48–58 47–58 45–59 42–64
Fine Gael 49 42 0% 39–46 38–46 37–50 35–56
Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas 51 42 0% 39–46 38–46 37–50 35–56

Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.7%  
86 0.7% 99.6%  
87 0.8% 98.8%  
88 0.3% 98%  
89 4% 98%  
90 1.4% 93%  
91 1.2% 92%  
92 15% 91%  
93 7% 76% Last Result
94 4% 69%  
95 10% 65%  
96 8% 55% Median
97 6% 47%  
98 19% 41%  
99 7% 22%  
100 4% 15%  
101 4% 11%  
102 1.0% 8%  
103 1.2% 7%  
104 3% 5%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.7% 1.5%  
107 0.1% 0.8%  
108 0.1% 0.7%  
109 0.5% 0.6%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.2% 99.4% Majority
82 0.8% 99.2%  
83 1.2% 98%  
84 4% 97%  
85 2% 94%  
86 6% 92%  
87 23% 86%  
88 3% 64%  
89 5% 61%  
90 8% 56% Median
91 10% 48%  
92 20% 38%  
93 6% 18%  
94 5% 12%  
95 2% 7%  
96 3% 6%  
97 1.2% 3%  
98 0.4% 1.5%  
99 0.7% 1.0%  
100 0.3% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
57 1.2% 99.4%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 0.9% 97%  
60 1.0% 96%  
61 3% 95%  
62 3% 93%  
63 9% 89%  
64 11% 80%  
65 6% 69%  
66 11% 63% Median
67 9% 52%  
68 3% 43%  
69 26% 39%  
70 2% 13%  
71 0.9% 10%  
72 6% 9%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.3% 1.5%  
76 1.0% 1.2%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9% Last Result
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 0.6% 97%  
58 0.9% 97%  
59 1.3% 96%  
60 3% 94%  
61 3% 91%  
62 7% 88%  
63 15% 81%  
64 12% 66%  
65 4% 54% Median
66 19% 50%  
67 6% 31%  
68 14% 26%  
69 2% 12%  
70 2% 10%  
71 3% 8%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Last Result
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.0%  
57 0.7% 97%  
58 1.5% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 3% 94%  
61 3% 90%  
62 10% 87%  
63 15% 78%  
64 10% 63%  
65 4% 53% Median
66 18% 50%  
67 6% 31%  
68 14% 25%  
69 2% 11%  
70 1.3% 9%  
71 3% 8%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas – Social Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.6%  
43 0.1% 99.6%  
44 0.2% 99.4%  
45 0.2% 99.3%  
46 1.1% 99.0%  
47 1.3% 98%  
48 3% 97%  
49 3% 94%  
50 5% 91%  
51 5% 86%  
52 6% 81%  
53 12% 75%  
54 10% 63% Median
55 4% 54%  
56 5% 49%  
57 30% 44%  
58 3% 14%  
59 6% 12%  
60 2% 6%  
61 0.9% 4% Last Result
62 0.4% 3%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.2% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.8%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Fianna Fáil – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
47 0.6% 99.6%  
48 0.7% 98.9%  
49 0.9% 98%  
50 5% 97%  
51 5% 92%  
52 20% 87%  
53 15% 68%  
54 12% 53% Median
55 16% 41%  
56 11% 25%  
57 5% 14%  
58 2% 9%  
59 1.4% 7%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.2% 3%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.6%  
43 0.6% 99.5%  
44 0.7% 98.9%  
45 0.6% 98%  
46 2% 98%  
47 2% 96%  
48 4% 94%  
49 3% 90%  
50 8% 87%  
51 8% 79%  
52 11% 71%  
53 5% 60% Median
54 21% 56%  
55 7% 35%  
56 14% 28%  
57 2% 13%  
58 6% 11% Last Result
59 2% 5%  
60 1.2% 3%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 0.4% 1.4%  
63 0.2% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.7%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.5%  
43 0.5% 99.0%  
44 0.5% 98.6%  
45 1.1% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 4% 93%  
49 4% 89%  
50 6% 85%  
51 10% 79%  
52 10% 69%  
53 4% 59% Median
54 21% 55%  
55 8% 34%  
56 14% 27% Last Result
57 2% 13%  
58 7% 11%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.5% 2%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 0.4% 1.3%  
63 0.2% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.7%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Fine Gael

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.8% 99.7%  
36 0.8% 98.9%  
37 1.4% 98%  
38 6% 97%  
39 4% 91%  
40 21% 87%  
41 8% 67%  
42 19% 59% Median
43 17% 40%  
44 8% 23%  
45 3% 15%  
46 7% 11%  
47 0.7% 4%  
48 0.6% 4%  
49 0.5% 3% Last Result
50 1.0% 3%  
51 0.3% 2%  
52 0.1% 1.2%  
53 0.2% 1.1%  
54 0.1% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.7%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Fine Gael – Green Party/Comhaontas Glas

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 0.8% 99.0%  
37 1.2% 98%  
38 5% 97%  
39 4% 92%  
40 20% 88%  
41 7% 68%  
42 18% 61% Median
43 18% 42%  
44 8% 24%  
45 3% 17%  
46 9% 13%  
47 0.5% 4%  
48 0.4% 4%  
49 0.9% 4%  
50 0.8% 3%  
51 0.6% 2% Last Result
52 0.2% 1.3%  
53 0.2% 1.1%  
54 0.1% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.7%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations